Need Someone to Weigh in On Your Latest Football Bet? Just Ask Joe!
Welcome back, folks! Week 4 saw some amazing games and great finishes. At the near quarter point of the season, we have only one undefeated team in the NFL: the Philadelphia Eagles. Finally, we are starting to get an idea of how strong or weak teams are going to be this year.
And with that, I finally had a good week with my picks going 11-4-1 against the spread and 10-6 straight up. Comparing my picks to those of 8 experts at CBS (making picks against the spread), I garnered the top spot for the first time. Was it just plain luck? Or do I know what I am doing? You will have to keep following every week to find out.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Proud Of
When I saw the line of the Packers-Patriots game, I thought 10.5 points were way too many. And many bettors seemed to agree, as the line was reduced to 9.5 by game time.
This year’s Packers are winning with defense and efficient, ball-control offense. It is doubtful that they will run away from many teams this year, let alone one led by Bill Belichick.
From a number’s standpoint, it made sense to pick the Pats against the spread. But we all knew the Pack would likely win.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Ashamed Of
The great week I had should have been even better. I actually had picked the Saints earlier in the week but changed my pick when I found out that Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas would not play, and Alvin Kamara was questionable (at that time).
Thus, in the end, I took the Vikings to beat the Saints in London and cover the 3.5 spread. And if their K Greg Joseph had just not missed a PAT late in the fourth, the Vikings were in a great position to win by 4 and cover the spread.
Overall Record Against the Spread: 36-27-1; Overall Record Straight Up: 36-28
So, with Week 4 in the books, it is time to start thinking about Week 5’s slate of games. Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 5 of the 2022 season.
All odds courtesy of bet365 (as of October 4, 2022).
Indianapolis at Denver (-3)
Denver at home coming off a loss is going to be tough to beat. And to be honest I do not think the Colts are a particularly good team this year.
I feel the Colts’ victory versus the Chiefs in Week 3 was an aberration and had more to do with Kansas City not playing well and giving it away. I feel confident that the Broncos will take care of business in this one.
Pick: Broncos to win and cover the spread.
New York Giants vs. Green Bay (-8)
Until I see the Packers blow out some teams, I am going to assume most of their games are going to be close this year.
And the Giants have shown enough to at least make the Packers earn it.
Pick: Packers to win, but Giants against the spread.
Pittsburgh at Buffalo (-14)
Buffalo is definitely the better team. And there is no doubt in my mind that they will win this game at home.
I do believe the Steelers’ switch at QB from Trubisky to Pickett is an upgrade. However, with that offensive line, it may not matter much.
Nonetheless, 14 points is a lot to cover for anyone. Thus, if I had to pick, I would take Pittsburgh and the points.
Pick: Bills to win, but Steelers against the spread.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Cleveland
I feel like the Chargers are starting to assert themselves. I expect them to get an early lead and force Jacoby Brissett to beat them through the air.
I don’t see that going well for the Browns, whose strength is running the football.
Pick: Chargers to win and cover the spread.
Houston at Jacksonville (-7)
The Jags are truly an enigma. We know they have talent, but we just never know what to expect from them on game day.
I like them to win this one at home. However, given the large spread (and the fact that I do not trust them at all), I am taking the Texans to cover.
Pick: Jags to win, but Texans to cover.
Chicago at Minnesota (-7)
I can already feel I am going to regret this pick. How can anyone truly trust the Vikings? For me, it is not really about Minnesota.
Chicago just doesn’t have the firepower to keep pace with anyone, let alone a team with as many playmakers as the Vikings.
Pick: Vikings to win and cover the spread.
Detroit at New England (-3)
We have no idea which QB the Patriots will roll out in this one. Normally, I would say such a team is ripe for the picking.
However, I just do not trust the Lions, who have their own injury issues, to take advantage of this. I will take the Pats at home in this one. They are the more desperate team, and it will show up in this one.
Pick: Patriots to win and cover the spread.
Seattle at New Orleans (-5)
Any serious bettor will stay away from this game until they find out the game-day status of Jameis Winston, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas.
For now, I will assume that Winston and Kamara will suit up and, thus, will pick the Saints to win this one. However, I reserve the right to change my pick later in the week when things become clearer.
Update (October 8): With Winston and Thomas likely to be OUT, and Landry and Kamara questionable, I think this game will be close and the Hawks will cover the spread.
Pick: Saints to win, but Seahawks against the spread.
Miami (-3) at New York Jets
The Jets have pulled off two last-second wins this year. But this team could easily be 0-4. And if Tua had not gone down last week, the Dolphins could easily be 4-0 right now.
Presently, the Dolphins’ QB situation is a bit muddled right now with Tua’s status unknown. Nevertheless, I have faith that Teddy Bridgewater can do enough to lead the Dolphins to victory in this one.
Pick: Dolphins to win and cover the spread.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-8)
Normally, such a large point spread as this would get me to strongly consider the underdog. However, the Bucs are starting to get healthy again.
With a full array of weapons at his disposal, Tom Brady started looked more like himself last week versus the Chiefs.
And if you throw in the fact that the Tom Bray-led Bucs are coming off a rare two-game skid, it just feels like the Bucs will take out all their frustrations on the Falcons. I am expecting the Bucs to get an early lead and never look back.
Pick: Bucs to win and cover the spread.
Tennessee (-2.5) at Washington
The Commanders are the more desperate team. And they are at home. For these reasons, I am going to ride with them. But by no means do I feel confident about this.
We could very well be looking at the final days of the Wentz era in Washington.
Pick: Commanders to win.
San Francisco (-5) at Carolina
Two things could happen here. A desperate Panthers team could rise off the mat and fight for their lives.
Or the Niners could send the Panthers into oblivion. I am guessing it will be the latter. The Niners D will be too much for them and will give Baker Mayfield fits in this one. His days as a starter appear to be numbered.
Pick: Niners to win and cover the spread.
Philadelphia (-5) at Arizona
This is my upset special. The Eagles are due for a wake-up call. And a QB like Kyler Murray is capable of the kind of performance that is needed to beat a hot Eagles team. With the Cards at home, I think they can rise to the occasion.
Pick: Cards to win.
Dallas at Los Angeles Rams (-6)
The Rams are too good to lose at home coming off a loss. Regardless of who plays QB for the Cowboys, I like the Rams to win this one. And the Cowboys are due for a loss.
Further, in recent times, the Cowboys generally seem to lose when they play good teams outside their division. But I do think they show some fight and do enough to keep this once close.
Pick: Rams to win, but Cowboys against the spread.
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-3)
This is a tough one. On one hand, the Ravens should be steaming mad after letting the Bills off the hook last week.
On the other hand, the Bengals are starting to find their groove after beating Miami last week. Even in their losses, the Bengals were in it until the very end and got beat by walk-off FGs.
I like Baltimore to win this by a field goal. However, the oddsmakers had the same idea, by favoring the Ravens by 3. So, since I am not picking any game to tie, I will reluctantly take the Ravens to cover the spread.
Pick: Ravens to win and cover the spread.
Las Vegas at Kansas City (-7)
The Chiefs are the better team and should win this one. However, I know these intra-divisional games can be tricky sometimes.
And when you throw in all the firepower the Raiders have, it is hard to bet against them covering a spread of more than 7. I am guessing Kansas City wins by a TD. And some bettors must agree with me because the line move a half point since I checked yesterday.
Pick: Chiefs to win, but Raiders to cover the spread.
Thank you for reading “NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread: Just Ask Joe!” I really enjoyed speculating about these games, and hope I was able to shed a little light.
Make sure to hit me up on Twitter or Facebook with any comments and/or to simply tell me how wrong I was. For more analyses, check out our website (and especially the part that deals with betting) and/or join us on Discord.