Fantasy Football Week 5 Start and Sit
Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 107 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am you host Rob Sullivan. Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts.
Covid-19 forced the postponement of the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Tennessee Titans last week and it nearly cost us the Saints/Lions and Patriots/Chiefs games as well. The New Orleans Saints player that tested positive turned out to be a false positive and after several days of negative tests in New England, The Patriots and Chiefs played Monday night.
As we enter into Week 5 the Covid concern is alive and well. The Titans are struggling to get a grasp on the spread. They reportedly failed to follow the NFL protocol inside their facility and once locked out of their facility they didn’t either. As I sit here on Thursday October 8th the news has come out that two more members of the Tennessee organization have tested positive.
The Tennessee Titans’ Week 5 game against the Buffalo Bills is now in doubt after a player tested positive for COVID-19 for the second straight day this week, a source told NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero.
Players on both teams have told ESPN’s Dianna Russini one of the NFL’s options is to move Sunday’s tilt to Monday or Tuesday in Nashville. In this case, next Thursday night’s game between the Bills and Kansas City Chiefs would be moved to Saturday. Tennessee’s total positives among players and personnel staff stand at 23 since its first case on Sept. 24.
The protocol the NFL has in place works. I know there is a lot of concern that the season will be suspended or lost entirely. It wont we all need to put this into perspective. Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area tweeted this information yesterday;
NFL test results for Sept.27-Oct.3:
-37,002 tests administered to a total of 7,981 players and team personnel.
-14,254 tests to 2,480 players; 22,748 tests were to 5,501 personnel.
-11 confirmed positive tests among players; 15 new confirmed positives among other personnel.
Those numbers equates to .07% of the tests coming back positive.
The numbers of NFL players who have gone on the reserve/COVID-19 list (by team) since Sept. 24:
Tennessee Titans – 11
New England Patriots – 3
Kansas City Chiefs – 1
Las Vegas Raiders – 1
Remaining 28 Teams – 0
Follow the protocol and all will be fine. The NFL should and will hammer the Titans with fines and lost draft picks. They will not let this opportunity to send a power message to the other 31 organizations fall by the wayside.
Today we are talking start sit for week five. I need to start off with a heartfelt apology for week four. In a word it was a complete S show. I typically list my hits and misses from the previous week, but nobody has time for that. Needless to say week 4 sucked and if you followed my suggestions you lost and I am sorry. I take this seriously and as always I own when I am wrong.
Ok, Week five. With the uncertainty in the Titans Bills game I suggest avoiding that game if you can. If you can’t do you best to limit your risk. If you have assets playing on Thursday you might want to start them because at least you know there is going to be a game played. Some points are better than none at all.
Ok same drill this week, two starts and two sits at each position, hopefully with better results this week.
Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons
Sully’s Rank: QB8
Matt Ryan was in a word bad last week in Green Bay, scoring a 12 fantasy points. I still trust him and I am starting him when the Panthers come to Atlanta. Ryan has absolutely owned Carolina’s defense at home, scoring 18-plus fantasy points while averaging more than 26 points in each of his last four games against them. That includes two games where Ryan has scored 30-plus points (2016, 2018). Consider Ryan a low-end No. 1 option.
Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings
Sully’s Rank: QB13
Trusting Kirk Cousins is hard to do, Almost as hard as it is to trust my start and sit recommendations. Trust me I get it. If you are in need at the position, perhaps Josh Allen or Ryan Tannehill are you other options, this week’s matchup versus the Seahawks is a beauty. Their defense has allowed an average of over 400 passing yards, nine total touchdowns, and the second-most fantasy points (26.8 PPG) to opposing quarterbacks. The over/under is 57.5, so this is a game to start all Vikings and Seahawks, even Kirk Cousins in primetime.
Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles
Sully’s Rank: QB21
Wentz hasn’t looked great this season, even though he has now scored 20-plus points in each of his past two games. Regardless, he’s a tough player to trust in a road game against the Steelers. Dating back to last season, quarterbacks have averaged just 13.2 fantasy points when facing this Steel Curtain at Heinz Field. That’s the third-fewest allowed to the position among home defenses during that time. I’d keep Wentz on the sidelines.
Baker Mayfield – Cleveland Browns
Sully’s Rank: QB24
The Browns (3-1) are winning games, but it’s not due to Mayfield putting up big numbers. In fact, he’s failed to score even 16 fantasy points in a single contest thus far. He’s also not even in the top 25 in pass attempts per game (28.8), as the Browns continue to run the ball a league-high 53.3 percent of the time. Mayfield also has a tough matchup against the Colts, who have allowed 175.8 passing yards and the fewest fantasy points per game (9.5 PPG) to opposing quarterbacks.
2. Running Backs
Mike Davis – Carolina Panthers
Sully’s Rank: RB9
Mike Davis has been a true godsend for those who landed him off the waiver wire. Over the last two weeks, only three running backs have more touches. Davis is also third in targets and fifth in fantasy points at the position over that time. The Falcons have allowed an average of more than 29 fantasy points per game to opposing backs this season, including the second-most catches to the position, so start Davis again.
Todd Gurley – Atlanta Falcons
Sully’s Rank: RB15
Gurley is coming off a two-touchdown game in Green Bay, and he’s now scored four times in four games while averaging 17.3 touches a game. He’ll remain a rock-solid RB2 this week when the Panthers visit the Mercedes-Benz Dome. Carolina’s defense has been brutal against running backs, allowing an average of 160 scrimmage yards and the second-most fantasy points to the position in 2020. In a game that could become a shootout, Gurley should be in most starting lineups.
Kenyan Drake – Arizona Cardinals
Sully’s Rank: RB26
This one hurts my heart. The reality is Kenyan Drake has had two straight amazing matchups versus the Lions and Panthers, and he’s scored a combined 12.4 fantasy points. Combined! Next up is another great matchup, this time against a Jets defense that’s allowed the eighth-most points per game to running backs. I am just not sure it matters. Drake is averaging 3.8 yards per rush, and he didn’t run a single pass route last week. Kyler Murray is also running more, which is sapping more of Drake’s value. He’s a risk-reward flex, at best.
Darrell Henderson – Los Angeles Rams
Sully’s Rank: RB28
Henderson for those new around here, was my start of the week. That is pretty much all you need to know about my Week 4. Just when we thought we had the Rams backfield all figured out, Sean McVay went back to Malcolm Brown last week. Brown, not Henderson, led the backfield in snaps, touches, and fantasy points. Next up is a date with the Washington Football Team, who have actually allowed just 115.8 scrimmage yards and the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs this season. With so much up in the air and a bad matchup next, Henderson is an easy sit. If you have Malcolm Brown I would do my best to sit him too.
3. Wide Receiver
Will Fuller – Houston Texans
Jacksonville’s cornerbacks are banged up with D.J. Hayden (hamstring) on injured reserve and C.J. Henderson (shoulder) sidelined. That should allow Will Fuller to stay hot for a third week in a row since he’s scored at least 15 PPR points in each of his past two games against Pittsburgh and Minnesota. So far through four games, Fuller is living up to his breakout potential as the No. 1 receiver for the Texans. Fire him up this week once again.
D.J. Moore – Carolina Panthers
Sully’s Rank: WR22
The matchup against the Falcons is fantastic, and we should see D.J. Moore have a breakout game he’s due. He had 20 PPR points in Week 2 at Tampa Bay, but he’s been at nine PPR points or less in his other three outings. Atlanta has only allowed three touchdowns to wide receivers, but five have already gone over 90 receiving yards against this secondary. That bodes well for Moore who despite his lackluster performance season to date is still averaging 8 targets a week. This posting is for Robby Anderson also, so start both of them.
Julian Edelman – New England Patriots
Sully’s Rank: WR32
This feels like another game where the Patriots can run the ball and not have to throw, and Julian Edelman has struggled the past two weeks with limited targets. He had 12 targets combined against the Raiders and Chiefs, and he scored 10 PPR points over that span. He also looked lost in the first game without Cam Newton in Week 4 at Kansas City, and Newton is out again in Week 5 against the Broncos. At best, Edelman is desperation flex this week.
A.J. Green – Cincinnati Bengals
Sully’s Rank: WR41
Of all the calls I got wrong last week, sitting A.J. Green in what was perceived to be a good match-up versus Jacksonville was not one of them. It’s time to bench Green in all leagues, and some Fantasy managers in smaller leagues should consider dropping him. Despite 33 targets this season, Green has scored a combined 24 PPR points in four games. He’s being outplayed by Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, and both are more trustworthy than Green now. This isn’t even about the matchup with Green anymore. Until he starts to produce on a consistent basis he should remain on your bench.
4. Tight Ends
Evan Engram – New York Giants
Sully’s Rank: TE8
The Cowboys have struggled with tight ends in each of the past three games, with Hayden Hurst, Greg Olsen and Austin Hooper all scoring at least 11 PPR points against Dallas. Engram is due for a big game, and he just had 10 targets in Week 4 at the Rams. He only had six catches for 35 yards in that outing, but hopefully that volume continues again this week. I’m expecting this to be Engram’s best game of the season so far.
Dalton Schultz – Dallas Cowboys
Sully’s Rank: TE10
Dalton Schultz has been a thing for Fantasy since Week 2 after Blake Jarwin (ACL) got hurt, and he’s been awesome over his past three games, averaging 15.3 PPR points over that span, with 24 targets combined in those outings. The Giants have been good versus the TE this season. They haven’t allowed a tight end to score yet this season, but I bet that streak ends this week. Schultz should be considered a top-10 tight end in all formats.
Austin Hooper – Cleveland Browns
Sully’s Rank: TE14
I had Austin Hooper as a sit last week and Hooper had his best game of the season in Week 4 at Dallas, go figure. He had five catches for 34 yards and a touchdown on seven targets, and he scored 14 PPR points. Prior to that, he had 12 PPR points combined in his first three games, and I don’t want to trust him this week, especially with David Njoku back from his knee injury. The Colts have allowed the fewest Fantasy points to opposing tight ends as well, so this should be another rough game for Hooper.
Rob Gronkowski – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sully’s Rank: TE19
It might seem like Rob Gronkowski could be headed for a bigger role with O.J. Howard (Achilles) out for the season, and Chris Godin out for this week. I’m not trusting Gronkowski until I see more consistent production, and he was held to three targets in Week 4 against the Chargers for one catch and 29 yards. He could score this week against the Bears, but he’s too risky to trust in most leagues. If you want to start a Bucs TE, Cameron Brate would be my choice in Week 5.
My Bonus Start of the Week this week, only available for you the loyal Sully 2 Cents listeners is;
James Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars
Sully’s Rank: RB
James Robinson continues to be one of the best stories of the 2020 season, and he should have another strong performance this week. He had a “down” game in Week 4 at Cincinnati with 14 PPR points, which ended a two-game streak of scoring at least 20 PPR points. But he still managed 17 carries for 75 yards, along with four catches for 32 yards on four targets, and he now has 13 catches for 133 yards on 14 targets in his past three games. He should do well again in Week 5 against the Texans, who have already allowed a running back to score in every game this season. And three running backs (Clyde Edwards-Helaire, James Conner and Dalvin Cook) have rushed for at least 109 yards against them. Make it happen James Robinson, lord knows I need you too.
That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for reading Fantasy Football Week 5 Start and Sit
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I will be back next week with Week 6 Start and Sits. Until then, good luck in week 5, stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers.