Fantasy Football Week 10 Start and Sit
Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 111 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host, I am Rob Sullivan. Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts.
Well as we enter Week 10, the fantasy season is starting to take shape, and for the majority of us our trade deadlines are rapidly approaching. I have a league that has a deadline this week, some in Week 11 and the majority of my leagues the deadline is Week 12. Once your deadline has come and gone you will be dependent on the waiver wire to bolster your team.
When it comes to trading at the deadline I do my best to accomplish two things,
1. I go all in. Especially in Redraft formats at this time of the season I could care less about depth, its time to load up in my starting lineups. In Dynasty its similar, however I am not selling my soul there as I want some meat left on the bone for 2021 and beyond. This tactic may be a little more risky in this wacky Covid season, but its the approach I will use nonetheless.
Don’t be afraid to overpay for the player you target, especially if the team you are dealing with is not a playoff team.
2. Target players with good Fantasy Schedules. When loading up for a playoff run, it makes sense to target players with good fantasy schedules in your playoff weeks. It is also an opportunity to sell players that don’t have the greatest matchups.
Now be smart, don’t go trading away fantasy studs just because they have a bad matchup, they are studs because they are matchup proof. Its just something to consider when planning your attack.
Teams with favorable playoff schedules this season
Los Angeles Chargers – Atlanta, Las Vegas, Denver
Tampa Bay Buccanners – Minnesota, Atlanta, Detroit
Indy – Houston – Vegas – Houston
Green Bay – Detroit, Carolina, Tennessee
Tennessee – Jacksonville, Detroit, Green Bay
Before we get into this week’s start and sit recommendations I want to apologize for last week. It was terrible and I see no reason to review it. Onward and upward we go into Week 10. Different week same drill, 2 starts and 2 sits at each position and as always we fire it up with the Quarterbacks.
Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers
Sully’s Rank QB4
What can I say about Justin Herbert? This kid just keeps getting it done week in and week out. Last week he put up 23.4 fantasy points last week and has now gone over the 20-point mark in all but one of seven games. This week’s matchup in Miami might not look great on paper, but Herbert has put up big numbers regardless of the matchup.
Miami has allowed 20-plus points to four quarterbacks, including Kyler Murray (37.9), Josh Allen (34.5), Cam Newton (25.7), and Russell Wilson (20.9). Justin Herbert has become a set it and forget it QB.
Jared Goff- Los Angles Rams
Sully’s Rank QB10
To be perfectly clear, Jared Goff has not been an overly usable fantasy QB this season. He enters Week 10 as QB17 averaging 18.23 fantasy points per game. He has gone over 20 points 3 times in 9 games and over 25 points, only twice. Jared Goff is a start this week for one reason, and one reason only, match-up. Goff gets the Seattle Seahawks in Week 10 and they are the gift that keeps on giving.
No team in the league has allowed more points to quarterbacks (26.7 PPG), and a total of six have put up 21-plus points against them. That includes three quarterbacks (Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen) who have scored 34-plus. Fantasy Football is hard enough, take a easy option when one is presented to you. Jared Goff is a slam dunk start this week.
Phillip Rivers – Indianapolis Colts
Sully’s Rank QB23
So when we were preparing for the 2020 season this fall, I was all over Philip Rivers. I loved the upside for the future Hall of Fame QB behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Fast forward to week 10, and what comes to a surprise to very few, I was dead wrong.
He’s failed to score 15 points in all but two of his nine games, that includes four games where Rivers scored put up fewer than 11.2 points. This week’s matchup against the Titans is a good one. Their defense has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, but Rivers is washed and he shouldn’t be owned in 1QB formats let alone started. In SF he’s in desperation city.
Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings
Sully’s Rank QB25
Kirk Cousins, is the starting QB for my team, the Minnesota Vikings. He put up a nice fantasy number last week, scoring 20.1 points in a win over the Lions. He threw the football just 20 times, however, and three of his 13 completions were touchdowns. That’s unlikely to happen most weeks, and its almost certainly not happening when the Vikings face the Bears this week.
To start the Bears own the Vikings. In addition, their defense has surrendered just 10 touchdown passes, and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Drew Brees his the only QB to have scored more than 16.9 points against them in 2020. Sit Kirk Cousins, and man if the Bears only had an offense.
2. Running Backs
J.K. Dobbins – Baltimore Ravens
Sully’s Rank RB13
Fantasy managers who have either JK Dobbins or Gus Edwards should consider them both viable this week. Assuming Mark Ingram is out again, this duo will be in a good spot when the Ravens face the Pats in New England. Since Week 6, New England has allowed six total touchdowns and the sixth-most fantasy points to runners. In that time, two backs have scored 20-plus points, and Phillip Lindsay, rushed for 101 yards against them.
I know last week was a disappointment for those that started Dobbins, but I am banking on his Week 10 to resemble his Week 8 performance against a very bad defense.
Darrell Henderson – Los Angeles Rams / Chase Edmonds – Arizona Cardinals
Sully’s Rank RB19 / R11
So this one is an either or start. If Darnell Henderson is active, I am starting him. Henderson has taken over as the top running back in the Rams offense, with Malcolm Brown putting in most of the work behind him on the depth chart. He’s in a good spot to produce this week, as the Seahawks come to town for an important NFC West battle. Their defense has surrendered four backs to score over 16 fantasy points, and eight have hit double digits overall. Look for Henderson to produce a nice stat line in what should be a shootout.
If Henderson isn’t active he is clearly a sit, and I am contractually obligated to bring you two starts each week, so….. Start Chase Edmonds.
Edmonds was my start of the week last week and well he didn’t really have the game I was anticipating. He put up a rather disappointing 11.8 fantasy points in a loss to the Dolphins.
The positive from last week is he did play 66 snaps and saw 28 touches, while no other Cardinals back had more than five snaps or two touches. That sort of volume makes Edmonds close to a must-start while Kenyan Drake is out. This week’s matchup against the Bills isn’t great, but their defense has allowed 14-plus fantasy points to five different backs in 2020. Edmonds scores this week and makes me look smart again.
DeeJay Dallas – Seattle Seahawks
Sully’s Rank RB25
Dallas has been on the starting radar for each of the last two weeks, but his Week 9 usage should concern his fantasy managers. Now he did lead the Seahawks backs in fantasy points (11.9), but Travis Homer was tops in snaps and tied Dallas with nine touches. DeeJay Dallas has been bad in his two starts, despite being the 4th highest scoring RB in Week 8&9 combined. 25 carries for 72 yards, with 7 receptions for an additional 25 yards is nothing to wrote home about.
The reason he was the 4th highest scoring back the last two weeks however is he has scored 3 touchdowns. Betting on TD production is a fools paradise. In addition, Seattle could also get back one or both of Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde, which would move Dallas into a backup role. Even if Carson and Hyde are our once again, I am sitting Dallas. The Rams defense that’s been tough on backs in 2020.
Devin Singletary – Buffalo Bills
Sully’s Rank RB33
Devin Singletary is no longer the running back Fantasy managers should covet off the Buffalo Bills. Singletary has lost his grip on the top spot on the depth chart in Buffalo, as Zack Moss has led the backfield in snaps and touches in the last two weeks. Even more impressive for fantasy purposes than the touches, is Moss has seen eight red-zone looks in that time compared to Singletary’s two. This week’s matchup in Arizona isn’t all that bad on paper, Singletary’s lack of consistent touches, including those in the red zone, make him a huge risk even as a flex starter. Leave him on your bench this week.
3. Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp – Los Angles Rams
Sully’s Rank WR9
Cooper Kupp has been inconsistent in fantasy leagues this season, ranking just 24th in fantasy points among wideouts and 27th in points per game. There are times when numbers don’t matter, this is one of those times. Cooper Kupp is an absolute must-start this week, as Kupp faces a Seahawks defense that’s allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Their defense has also given up the most points to slot receivers, including an average of 9.1 catches and 123.3 yards per game. Robert Woods is also a must start this week. Seattle has allowed 16 top-24 performances to the WR this season, in eight games.
Jarvis Landry – Cleveland Browns
Sully’s Rank WR24
There was once a time where I managed a way to talk about my guy Jarvis Landry on damn near every podcast. Well he’s back! In Cleveland’s first game without Odell Beckham Jr. (Week 8), Landry led all Browns wideouts in targets (11), catches (4), and yards (52). He should continue to see that kind of volume this week as the Browns host the Texans. Their defense has surrendered 13 touchdowns and the seventh-most fantasy points to wideouts, and slot receivers have averaged more than five catches per game against them.
I’d consider Landry a legit WR2 option this week, and if it were not for the overall strength of the position this week, I would say he has WR1 upside.
D.J. Chark – Jacksonville Jaguars
Sully’s Rank WR27
It should come as no surprise to those that have joined me before that I am of the opinion that DJ Chark is just a guy. He is a JAG in more ways than one. I had Chark as a sit last week and he put up a huge game scoring 27.6 points in a loss to the Texans. It was particularly impressive in that he did it with rookie Jake Luton making his first NFL appearance.
So while most will keep him in their lineups this week, keep in mind that he could be in for a tough afternoon in a matchup against Packers shutdown CB Jaire Alexander. The cornerback did suffer a concussion last week, though, so Chark would be a start if Alexander is inactive. Even if Alexander isn’t active I am not in love with Chark. Of his 27.6 points last week, 14.3 or 52% of his production came on one play. Chark is still a WR that averages 11.5 points a game on the season, and one that is WR30 overall. I understand why you’d like to start him, but I will not be.
Marquise Brown – Baltimore Ravens
Sully’s Rank WR32
I don’t know about you, but I’m getting tired of waiting for Brown to start putting up fantasy-relevant numbers. He’s failed to score double-digit points in three straight games and five of eight overall this season. Unlike my opinion of D.J. Chark, I like Hollywood, and I like him a lot.
Brown and TE Mark Andrews lackluster Fantasy performances this season are a direct result of the Ravens passing game, it stinks. Lamar Jackson has been brutal. The Patriots defense is awful against the run, so expect to a lot of Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, and Gus Edwards in this one. Brown, and the rest of the Ravens passing game simply cannot be trusted in fantasy until Lamar Jackson dramatically improves.
4. Tight End
T.J. Hockenson – Detroit Lions
Sully Rank: TE2
T.J. Hockenson was a start for me last week, and he remains a start for me this week. Hockenson continues to produce nice totals, as he hauled in five of eight targets and scored a touchdown in last week’s loss to the Vikings. He has now produced at least 9.3 fantasy points in every game this season. His 102 PPR points are third best and his 12.8-point per game average is 4th best at the position. His matchup looks good too, as the Football Team has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Dallas Goedert – Philadelphia Eagles
Sully’s Rank TE4
I do a weekly waiver wire video with the talented Brad Menendez over on the Rotoheat YouTube Channel each Sunday. For the past month we have been advising Fantasy managers to add Dallas Goedert. Goedert was a disappointment in his return to action in Week 8, but I still see him as a solid No. 1 tight end. Carson Wentz targets tight ends an average of 10.3 times per game, which is second in the league behind Derek Carr.
The Giants have allowed 13-plus fantasy points to tight ends three times in their last four games, including 14.5 points to Richard Rodgers (who replaced Goedert) for the Eagles back in Week 8. This match-up is golden for Dallas Goedert, start him with confidence.
Jared Cook – New Orleans Saints
Sully’s Rank TE15
The return of Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders impacts Jared Cook’s fantasy value. Last week he had just three targets and scored his fewest points (3.0) since Week 3. Things don’t figure to get much better this week, as Cook also faces a tough matchup against the 49ers. Their defense has surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, and just one (Mike Gesicki) has scored more than 8.6 points against them. I’d keep Cook on the sidelines if at all possible.
Tyler Higbee – Los Angeles Rams
Sully’s Rank TE22
Higbee has been a massive disappointment this season, scoring fewer than nine fantasy points in all but one game. He’s also played 54 percent of his snaps on running plays, and his 3.6 targets per game doesn’t rank in the top 30 at the position. He’s a fade for me this week, as Higbee has a bad matchup against the Seahawks. Their defense has been tough on tight ends, allowing two touchdowns and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the position.
That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for reading Fantasy Football Week 10 Start and Sit.
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I will be back next week with my Week 11 Start and Sits. Until then, good luck in week 10, stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers.