Dynasty ADP Best Buys in Rounds 1-8 for the Month of March

Recency Bias is a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones. When it comes to investing, recency bias often manifests in terms of direction or momentum. This bias convinces us that a rising player will continue to appreciate, or that a declining player will continue to depreciate. This is a natural occurrence that happens to all of us, and when we take a step back and look at the bigger picture, we may be able to utilize this understanding to our benefit. 

ADP data Courtesy of Dynasty League Football

Round 1

Patrick Mahomes
My Ranking – 1st overall (QB1)
March ADP – 1st overall (QB1)

You will likely have to utilize the 1.01 in Superflex startup drafts to acquire Patrick Mahomes, but there isn’t a safer pick in any round.

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Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March
Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March

Round 2

Saquon Barkley
My Ranking – 3rd overall (RB1)
March ADP – 13th overall (RB3)
Saquon Barkley lit the fantasy world on fire during his rookie season in 2018 averaging 24.1 PPG. Barkley was one of the highest praised running back prospects, and when he has been on the field, he has given fantasy owners exactly what they were hoping for. Due to a couple of injuries over the last two seasons, fantasy owners seem to be a little too low on Barkley right now. The only payers I would rather own are Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen, so I love the idea of taking Saquon with a late 1st or early 2nd round pick.

Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March
Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March

Round 3

CeeDee Lamb
My Ranking – 20th overall (WR4)
March ADP – 33rd overall
(WR7)
In games in which Dak and Lamb both suited up for the Cowboys, Lamb averaged 7.2 targets, 5.2 receptions, 77.2 yards, and .5 touchdowns. Extrapolate that over a 16 game season and you have 83 receptions, 1,235 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. That comes out to an average of 15.8 PPG which would have ranked Lamb at 16th in PPG as a 21-year-old. With the traits of an alpha wide receiver that will command a high volume of targets throughout his career, utilizing your 3rd round pick on Lamb is a safe buy with massive upside.

Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March
Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March

Round 4

Tua Tagovailoa
My Ranking – 30th overall (QB10)
March ADP – 42nd overall (QB17)

I feel safe in stating that trying to find a “best buy at QB” in a Superflex league can be challenging. Quarterbacks tend to fly off the board early and often in Superflex start-up drafts. If you have a chance to grab a young quarterback with high upside in the 4th round then you should do so. Even though Tua disappointed fantasy owners during his rookie season, I believe the hate has gone too far. Just two years removed from a major hip injury, it’s likely the Dolphins wanted to ease Tua back into real-life action. I am expecting Miami to use draft capital to surround Tua with playmakers and that should help him perform much better for fantasy owners in the coming seasons.

Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March
Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March

Round 5

Tee Higgins
My Ranking – 21st overall (WR5)
March ADP – 53rd overall (WR12)

Tee Higgins is a MUST BUY for me at his current ADP of 53rd overall. In 9 games played with Joe Burrow last season, Higgins had 43 receptions, 629 yards, and 4 touchdowns. That comes out to a 14.3 PPG good for WR18 last season. Higgins is only 22 years old and will be playing alongside Joe Burrow for the next few seasons. The Bengals defense is likely to struggle again in 2021 forcing Burrow and the offense to be one of the more pass-friendly teams in the NFL. Pair that with the talent of Higgins and I am expecting a huge breakout in his sophomore season. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see Higgins average close to 9 targets a game.

Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March
Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March

Round 6

Keenan Allen
My Ranking – 44th overall (WR13)
March ADP – 67th overall (WR18)

Justin Herbert showcased his arm talent throughout his rookie season leading to Keenan Allen making it four straight seasons with at least 97 receptions. At the start of the 2021 NFL season, Keenan Allen will be 29 years old which is scaring owners away in start-up drafts. I am less affected by Allen’s age due to his type of skill set. Allen isn’t a burner that relies on incredible speed to make big plays, he is a precise route runner who knows how to find the holes in the defense and move the chains. Allen’s volume will continue to be elite moving forward and with a solid, young quarterback, Keenan is perhaps one of the safest picks to acquire in start-up drafts.

Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March
Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March

Round 7

DeVonta Smith
My Ranking – 59th overall (WR19)
March ADP – 84th overall (WR26)

After watching DeVonta Smith’s tape back in January, I notated the following “WOW! JUST, WOW.” The only concern has to be those skinny legs because his game tape showcases so many desirable traits. Smith has incredible body control while still playing the game at such a fast pace. It seemed like he would move so suddenly and swiftly until the exact moment of the catch point and it appeared as if everything slowed down. Smith’s elite agility and speed give him the ability to run hard routes with very sudden and sharp cuts. He showcased great field awareness when making plays on the sidelines or when close to making a first down. Smith’s overall play-making ability should keep him highly involved in whatever offense adds him.

Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March
Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March

Round 8

Jameis Winston
My Ranking – 81st overall (QB18)
March ADP – 95 overall (QB30)

With the retirement of Drew Brees, a quarterback competition seems to be brewing in New Orleans, and with Jameis being only 27 years old at the start of the 2021 season, this may turn into one of the best values in a startup draft. Jameis finished as the QB3 in 2019 and has always had the arm talent to make any throw necessary. The concern for Jameis is the turnovers, but at his current acquisition cost, I would feel confident adding Jameis to my roster.

Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March
Dynasty ADP: Superflex Best Buys in March

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