During this 8-part divisional series, I utilize the ADP from the RedZone 96 league startup drafts to determine 2 guys, I am buying, 2 I’m selling, and my flyer off each team.  Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP.

Part 5: NFC East

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MINNEAPOLIS, MN – FEBRUARY 04: Corey Clement #30 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates after catching a 22-yard touchdown against the New England Patriots during the third quarter in Super Bowl LII at U.S. Bank Stadium on February 4, 2018 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Chris Steppig/Getty Images)

Philadelphia Eagles

Two players, I am buying;

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Corey Clement – Overall ADP 118 RB 42

I have been keeping a close eye on Clement since he was given the opportunity after Darren Sproles tore his ACL last season.  Clement delivered a nice rookie season rushing 16 times for 74 yards and adding in 10 catches for an additional 123 yards.  He turned those 84 touches into 6 total TD’s.  I was expecting to grab Clement later in drafts and then he turns in the 4 catch 100 yard with a touchdown Super Bowl performance. LeGarrette Blount has moved on and Jay Ajayi is running out of tread on his tires.  Corey Clement could see his workload dramatically increase this season and he is a great value here at RB42.

Nelson Agholor – Overall ADP 80 WR 37

After two rather lackluster seasons in Philadelphia, Nelson Agholor broke out in his third season.  Agholor nearly doubled his career bests in catches and yards last season and put up 8 TD.  Agholor showed great chemistry with starting QB Carson Wentz in 2017, and I look for that to continue into this season and many more.  Agholor is a buy at this value, and I look for his stock to continue to rise.

Two players, I am selling;

Jay Ajayi – Overall ADP 68 RB 28

At RB 28, Jay Ajayi is way overvalued in my opinion.  I do not see Ajayi getting the workload he would need to return this value, and I am not confident that if he did he would produce.  Ajayi has bad knees and I am not confident that he has much left in the tank.  I’m selling as I do not feel he is a top 30RB and I see him being pushed out of the role in Philly by the remainder of the RB they have in their stable. 

Alshon Jeffery – Overall ADP 40 WR 21

Alshon Jeffery was not healthy last season.  Does anyone remember the last time he was?  He is coming off shoulder surgery that should see him return to the field in week 1 at 100%.  Jeffery is a great receiver and an amazing talent.  He’s 28 years old and as mentioned has battled injury throughout his career.  I think Jeffery has a nice season in Philadelphia, however, I do not see him returning top 24WR this year and beyond.  Sell time for Alshon 

Take the flyer;

Josh Adams – Overall ADP 210 RB 70

The Philadelphia Eagles signed 21-year-old 6’2 213lb. RB out of Notre Dame. Adams has great speed for a man his size and he’s known for breaking tackles.  I see Adams as a threat to Jay Ajayi and that the Eagles could be looking at a Josh Adams/Corey Clement backfield for years to come.  Josh Adams is a great value here.

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FORT COLLINS, CO – OCTOBER 14: CSU receiver Michael Gallup (4) runs off the field during the UNR at CSU football game at Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium in Fort Collins Colorado on October 14, 2017. (Photo by Kyle Emery/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Dallas Cowboys

Two players, I am buying;

Allen Hurns – Overall ADP 149 WR68

Allen Hurns is a buy for me solely on the value of this ADP.  I am not a huge fan of Hurns and really don’t think he’s that great of a WR.  Micheal Gallup will emerge as the WR1 in Dallas at some point and, Hurns’ QB Dak Prescott is an average QB at best.  Still with all that going on the opportunity for Hurns will never be better.  As WR68 Hurns will return value.

Michael Gallup – ADP 98 WR 46

The Cowboys drafted Gallup in the third round of the recent NFL draft.  I was surprised to see him fall to the third round, and I sure the Cowboys were pleased that he did.  Dallas has little to over in terms of pass catchers and I do see Gallup making a positive impact in his rookie season.

Two players, I am selling

Dak Prescott – Overall ADP 143 QB 18

Last season we saw both good Dak and bad Dak. He has lost Dez Bryant and Jason Witten this season.  Add to that, I don’t think Dak is really that good of a QB.  He will be decent and get you some points with his legs, but at the end of the day at QB18 there is much better value available.  I would prefer Baker Mayfield (QB19), Mitch Trubisky (QB20), and Jose Rosen (QB21) over Prescott. Rosen is coming off the almost 2 full rounds later at pick 164.

Cole Beasley – Overall ADP 278 WR 120

I’ll be honest there is not much I like about this Dallas offense and it’s not easy finding much value.  Even at WR 120 I just can’t buy into Beasley.  Beasley has shown solid chemistry with Dak Prescott the past two seasons but I don’t see him getting the required opportunity this season to capitalize on it.

Take the flyer;

Dalton Schultz – Overall ADP 296 TE 42

Not sure if anyone has noticed but there aren’t a lot of passing options in this Cowboys offense.  With that being said someone has to start at TE for this team now that Jason Witten has retired.   Schultz was drafted as part of the Cowboys’ committee to replace Witten. He has the skills to be a Week 1 starter. Schultz will compete for snaps with Rico Gathers, Geoff Swaim, and Blake Jarwin.  That list of TE isn’t going to scare anyone anytime soon.  Schultz is worth a flyer in the 24th round. 

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LANDOVER, MD – NOVEMBER 12: Running back Chris Thompson #25 of the Washington Redskins runs the ball during the first quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at FedExField on November 12, 2017 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Washington Redskins

Two players, I am buying;

Alex Smith – Overall ADP 209 QB 27

Alex Smith starts his Redskins career coming off the most productive season of his career.  Smith will have the luxury of playing behind a solid offensive line, and with a complement of talented players.  The Redskins won’t be as talented on offense as the Chiefs, but they will score points and Smith will utilize his weapons to bring a positive return on this ADP.  Smith has a few more years left in him and I would look to target a young QB later in the draft with upside to pair with Smith on your roster.

Paul Richardson – Overall ADP 163 WR 72

Another new face in the Redskins lineup this season, Richardson comes via Seattle to the Redskins as a possible WR1.  Richardson will line up opposite Josh Doctson on the outside with Jameson Crowder in the slot.  Richardson will see plenty of targets.  I see him improving on the 44 catch 703 yard and 6 touchdown season he put up as a member of the Seahawks in 2017.  The Redskins paid this man and are likely looking for a return on their investment.  Richardson being drafted as a WR6 is a super value here.

Two players, I am selling;

Chris Thompson – Overall ADP 92 RB 38

Chris Thompson was having a great year in 2017 until a broke his leg and ended his year.  Thomson was averaging 7.8 yards per touch and a touchdown every 12.9 touches at the time of the injury.  Thompson regardless of workload is going to experience negative regression in 2017.  He will continue to be the primary third-down back for the Skins and will see his share of targets.  Derrius Guice however, is going to be the early downs back and will start to eat into Thompson’s third-down snaps as the season progresses.  I am selling Thompson at this ADP as I feel his value is as high as it is going to get.

Jordan Reed – Overall ADP 119 TE 12

If Jordan Reed could stay healthy and play a full season he would be a top level TE in this league and if I were to win the lottery I would be rich.  Sadly, I am not predicting either anytime soon.  Being drafted at TE 12 is ridiculously high for a player that has averaged 10 games a season.  There is no denying his talent, and there is no denying he will get hurt again.  Jordan Reed is an easy sell at this ADP.

Take the Flyer;

Trey Quinn – Overall ADP 253

Trey Quinn was the final player selected in this year’s NFL draft.  Quinn led the NCAA with 114 catches in 2017.  He will find himself behind Jamison Crowder, Josh Doctson, and Paul Richardson to begin 2018, but Quinn has the ability to line up all over the field.  Quinn should see some action on offense this season and if there is an injury to any of the Redskins receivers, he could get a shot to impress.  He’s a stash for now and certainly worth a shot at pick 253 in the 21st round. 

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DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 15: Tight end Evan Engram #88 of the New York Giants runs after a catch against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High on October 15, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

New York Giants

Two players, I am buying;

Eli Manning – Overall ADP 283 QB 34

Eli Manning will be 37 when the 2018 season starts and is likely playing in on of his final seasons.  Playing in an offense that has Odell Beckham Jr., Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, and rookie phenom Saquon Barkley, Manning is poised to have one his best seasons. OBJ and Engram are projected to be top 5 at their positions. Barkley is projected to be a top 10 RB and Sterling Shepard a top 50 WR.  If these players are going to achieve these rankings then Eli will have to have to big part in it.  Eli has the potential in this offense to have a top 10 QB season.  I project Eli to have two more seasons in New York, and this one will be one to buy into at this ADP.

Sterling Shepard – Overall ADP 75 WR 35

Shepard when healthy last season was one of few reliable targets for Eli Manning and the Giants offense in 2017.  With the return of Odell Beckham Jr. and the addition of Saquon Barkley, the Giants won’t be nearly as easy to defend.  Shepard should see himself open more often and benefit as a result.  I’m liking this value and buying Sterling in the 6th round.

Two players, I am Selling;

Evan Engram – Overall ADP 38 TE 2

I own Engram in a couple of leagues and I love this guy.  Now if there is anyone in this offense that is likely to experience some negative regression, its Engram.  Basically, one of the only reliable targets of any substance in the back half of the season, Engram excelled in 2017.  Assuming the talent around him remains on the field this season I would expect to see his numbers decline.  He is easily a top 5 TE for me, but at TE2 value, I could sell for a positive return.   

Jonathan Stewart – Overall ADP 299 RB 95

Jonathan Stewart is coming off his second consecutive 16 game season, the only two of his career.  Seems impressive enough for the 31 years old RB.  Reality is he’s in a situation that might see him get cut from the 53-man roster and if he does hang on will have little to no role in this offense.  There were 135 RB selected in RedZone drafts.  I’m pretty certain I would prefer any of the 40 that came off the board after Stewart. 

Take the Flyer;

Davis Webb – Overall ADP 367 QB 47

On the surface, it would appear that Davis Webb has improved from last season to this season.  Webb has reportedly grasped the new offense and is displaying some good arm strength in camp.  Honestly, I am not sure what to make of Davis Webb. but at this point, I will take the flyer on him over Kyle Lauletta.  Lauletta has an ADP 75 spots higher than Webb and at this value, I am more inclined to take the flyer on Webb.

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