The goal for everyone participating in Fantasy Football should be to win your league. We all want the best possible roster, and one of the ways to ensure this is to avoid the 2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued Players.
To truly avoid the overvalued players, you need to be prepared. Having a plan entering your draft will separate you from the more casual fantasy managers in your leagues. Utilize tools such as cheat sheets that contain rankings, tier-based rankings, and ADP values.
You are going to be more successful on draft day if you can avoid following your league’s recommended ADP and focus on your rankings and tiers instead. The effect that Average Draft Position (ADP) has cannot be understated. Whether we like it or not, when we see a player sitting atop the draft board it becomes difficult to ignore them until they are selected.
ADP is the average position that any given fantasy football player is selected. It is supposed to provide a general idea of a player’s value. However, the majority of ADP when you are drafting is flawed unless your draft is late and is calculated by preseason mock drafts. ADP is also fueled by the casual fantasy mangers. These managers typically drive the value of recognizable players’ ADP.
Another area where we ADP can prove to be misleading is if you are at all like me and utilize mock drafts to test draft strategies. I have, on numerous occasions, drafted a QB or TE early to gauge the impact on the rest of my roster. I have also gone zero RB or zero WR. Each time I do this, I am typically taking a player in a spot that I normally wouldn’t and am letting a player I normally would select fall down the board. This impacts both of the player’s ADP.
This creates discrepancies in a player’s value to his ADP by being either overvalued or undervalued.
2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued Players
Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens ADP Overall 21 QB1
Lamar Jackson was tremendous last season, blowing away every other fantasy QB by nearly 100 points. His 9.0 TD-rate is going to decline considerably, as has been the case for every other QB in NFL history to achieve such a mark. In addition, his rushing totals will decrease as well. With all that said, he will still be the a top 3 quarterback, at worst, in 2020 if healthy.
Starting off this article with 2019’s leading fantasy scorer may seem odd. This take should not be interpreted as a dislike of Lamar Jackson, as it’s quite the opposite–I love Lamar Jackson. What I dislike is his ADP. The reality is you should not be taking a QB this high in your drafts regardless of who it is; the opportunity cost is too high. Grab a Running Back or Wide Receiver in round two, as there is plenty of time to grab a viable starting QB in the later rounds.
Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs ADP Overall 23 QB2
This time a year ago I was pounding the Patrick Mahomes regression drum. After a season in which he threw for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns, it was inevitable. Mahomes, as expected, did regress, but injuries to his ankle and then knee played a key role.
Similar to Lamar Jackson, this is all about the ADP and not the player. Patrick Mahomes is my top ranked QB entering 2020. Mahomes is the best quarterback in football and is surrounded by an amazing cast of weapons and superior coaching. In 1QB leagues, QB is deep, so pass on the urgency to grab this elite talent here and grab a stud at another position in the late second round. If for some reason all twelve of your league mates read this article and he falls into the middle of the third round, then it’s time to pounce.
Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills ADP Overall 88 QB7
In his first two seasons, Josh Allen had a career completion percentage of 56.3%. Never underestimate the power of a rushing quarterback in fantasy football. In those same two seasons, Allen ran for a combined 1,141 yards and 17 touchdowns. Josh Allen finished last season as the 6th highest scoring quarterback in fantasy.
I expect some regression in 2020, yet I believe that he will remain a top scoring fantasy quarterback ( I have him ranked 8th). The addition of Stefon Diggs to the Bills improves the passing game, and the recent addition of Zach Moss to pair with Devin Singletary improves the running game. I see Allen throwing for more yards and running less as a result of these additions. Round 7 is still early to grab your quarterback, and if you are hell-bent on making that selection at this stage of your draft then I am certain that you can grab a higher ranked QB.
3. Running Backs
Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans ADP Overall 7 RB6
In 2019, Derrick Henry picked up where he left off at the tail end of the 2018 season. Henry finished 2019 as the league’s leading rusher with 1,540 yards–183 yards more than second place Ezekiel Elliot. In addition to his 1,504 rushing yards, Henry added 206 receiving yards on a career best 18 receptions. He scored a total of 18 times in 2019, ranking third best in the league. His 294.6 PPR fantasy points ranked 5th best. Those are impressive numbers to say the least, but an ADP of 7th overall makes Derrick Henry the most overvalued player of all 2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued Players.
I expect Henry, along with the entire Titans offense, to regress in 2020. Henry is still a top RB, but I just don’t see him eclipsing 1,500 yards and scoring 18 times again. His ADP makes him undraftable for me in all formats, but especially in PPR.
Aaron Jones – Green Bay Packers ADP Overall 15 RB10
Aaron Jones finished as the second highest scoring RB in 2019. Simply put, that won’t happen again in 2020. First off, Jones scored 19 times last season, and that will certainly not happen again. Secondly, the Packers selected A.J. Dillon in the second round of the NFL draft. Thirdly, there is the Devante Adams factor.
Adams missed 4 games last season, and in those 4 games Jones scored 117.1 of his 314.8 PPR points. Without Adams in the lineup, Jones averaged 29.28 points a game. With Adams, it fell to 16.48 a game. Having 22 receptions for 285 yards and 3 touchdowns without Adams is a nice chunk of his season total of 49 catches 474 yards and 3 scores. Lost in Jones’ breakout season were his 5 games with less than 9 fantasy points. Devante Adams was dressed for all of them. Drafting Jones at his current ADP of 15 and as the RB10 is a mistake. Let someone else make that mistake.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Kansas City Chiefs ADP Overall 26 RB14
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was the first running back selected in the 2020 NFL draft, and his landing spot couldn’t be better.
A season ago at LSU, CEH totaled 1,867 yards and 17 touchdowns on 270 touches. 55 of those touches were receptions for 453 yards and a single score. Landing in an Andy Reid led offense that employs the best quarterback in football sets Edwards-Helaire up to be extremely relevant in his rookie season. While the reward is high, there is also a lot of risk here. CEH has never played a down of NFL football, the offseason program is nonexistent, and Damien Williams will not simply disappear. This is another case of liking the player and hating the ADP.
2. Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown – Tennessee Titans ADP Overall 42 WR16
A.J. Brown had a very productive rookie season. On just 52 receptions, Brown finished as the WR21 in PPR scoring. Of players with at least 50 catches, he was #1 in yards per reception and yards after the catch. Combine that with 8 TDs and you have a great rookie season.
His second-half explosion with QB Ryan Tannehill will not be maintained. In the games Brown played with Mariota last season he was WR44. With Tannehill (who was QB3 from week 7-17) Brown was WR3. Tannehill will regress, as will A.J. Brown. He remains an extremely talented young WR, but at WR16 in the middle of round four he is being over-drafted, making him one of the 2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued Players.
Courtland Sutton – Denver Broncos ADP Overall 45 WR18
I am a huge Courtland Sutton fan. I have spent a large majority of my offseason targeting him in dynasty start-ups and in trades. In redraft, however, at this ADP I am cooling on Sutton.
He totaled 1,112 yards on 124 targets as the primary target in a very one-dimensional offense a year ago. Quite simply, his success is tied to QB Drew Lock. In 2020, Sutton is surrounded by talent, while a year ago that simply wasn’t the case, A breakout could happen if his TD numbers go up, if the offense takes a step forward, and if Sutton’s target total stays around 125. Pat Shurmur’s offense spreads the ball around, and with Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, and Melvin Gordon in this offense, the 125 targets are far from a certainty. WR18 in the tail end of the 4th round is slightly too rich for me.
Terry McLaurin – Washington Redskins ADP Overall 64 WR27
In the first three weeks of Terry McLaurin’s NFL career, he found himself sitting at WR10. The remainder of the season, McLaurin was the WR36 in PPR scoring. He finished with 93 targets for 919 yards & 7 TDs in 14 games played–well above anyone’s expectations.
New year, new expectations, and a repeat of exceeding them is unlikely. Dwayne Haskins is far from a proven talent, the run game in Washington will be better, and the Redskins have added talent on the offense to join McLaurin. All of these factors, plus the fact that McLaurin will see each team’s best cover man in 2020 adds up to regression. I believe that McLaurin will struggle in 2020, be one of the year’s biggest disappointments, and will certainly be one of the 2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued Players.
1. Tight End
Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles ADP Overall 41 TE3
Zach Ertz had himself a record breaking 2018 season, and as a result I was all about regression for him in 2019. He did regress, but not nearly as much as I had anticipated. 280 points and TE2 finish in 2018 turned in to a 216 points and a TE4 finish in 2019.
What I find interesting is Ertz’s splits last season. From Weeks 1-8 last season, Ertz was TE7 and averaging 10.7 points per game. When the Eagles were ravished by injury at WR during the back half of the season, Ertz was TE3, averaging 16.8 points per game. In addition, Dallas Goedert is becoming more and more involved in the Eagles offense, especially in the red zone. Ertz remains a top 12 TE, but let someone else take him at pick 41, and you go find your value later in the draft.
Darren Waller – Las Vegas Raiders ADP Overall 56 TE5
Darren Waller came out of nowhere to break out in 2019. To say that Waller, at the age of 27, had a surprise breakout is an understatement. He had 27.9% of his team’s total receiving yards and ended up TE3 in overall scoring with 221 fantasy points.
In 2019, the Raiders’ passing game was limited. In addition to Waller, the Raiders had Tyrell Williams who was limited by injury, Hunter Renfrow, and little else. In 2020, the Raiders move to Las Vegas and will have a dramatically different look as they have added three rookie wide receivers: Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards and Lynn Bowden. We saw last season that when Renfrow was more involved, Waller faded. The additions to the passing game will impact Waller’s target share, and as result he regresses and finds himself listed as one of the 2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued Players.
Tyler Higbee – Los Angeles Rams ADP Overall 73 TE7
I’m not as high on Tyler Higbee as some. The main reason for this, as I mentioned in the 2020 Redraft Wide Receiver Rankings when discussing Cooper Kupp, is I am not sure what offense we are going to see out of the Rams in 2020. Is it the first half offense where the Rams run very little 12-man personnel formations, or is it the second half when there was plenty? The other factor is Gerald Everett and the role he may play in 2020.
Higbee went nuts to close out the 2019 season. Through Week 12, Higbee was TE35 with 53.2 fantasy points. In Weeks 13-17 Higbee was the highest scoring TE in fantasy. He went from averaging 5.3 PPR points a game to 21.4 PPR points a game. He had 4 straight games of 100+ yards. With the uncertainty of the Rams offense and the role Gerald Everett will play in it, I am taking the conservative approach and I am passing on Higbee in round 6 of my drafts. At this stage of drafts, combined with the late round value of other TEs still available, Higbee is a 2020 Fantasy Football Overvalued Player.