Wide receiver consistency is one of those topics that I think it is tough for people to truly gauge without the data in front of them. We remember the big weeks that a player puts up, but we forget almost everything else. On top of that, what would be considered “consistent” and what truly makes a player “boom or bust”?

The first thing we have to look at is that not every week is created equal. For example, in two weeks, all it took was 7.5 PPR points to be a WR3. In another it took 13.8. That is a full touchdown difference. Here is what it took to be a WR1-WR3 in 2019.

Weeks 1-17

When we look at a WR weekly ranking it is important to note that it is not a fair to gauge simply on weeks as a WR1, WR2 or WR3. For example, in week 1 there were eight wide receivers that topped the 19.8 WR1 average, but fell in as WR2 because it took a 24.3 average to be a WR1. Were those receivers really any less valuable because they scored between 21.7 & 23.5 points?

8. Weekly WR1 Weeks

PHILADELPHIA, PA – DECEMBER 23: Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins #10 of the Houston Texans celebrates against the Philadelphia Eagles in the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field on December 23, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

There were 13 players that had 5 or more WR1 weeks with Michael Thomas blowing the field away with 11 himself and 2nd coming in with only 6.

Player#WR1 Weeks#WR1 AVG (19.8 Pts)Difference
Michael Thomas1110-1
Robert Woods65-1
Davante Adams65-1
DeAndre Hopkins65-1
Julio Jones65-1
Kenny Golladay65-1
Allen Robinson55Even
Julian Edelman55Even
Chris Godwin55Even
A.J. Brown55Even
Cooper Kupp55Even
DeVante Parker55Even
Mike Evans54-1

As you can see, about half of the field had a -1 when compared to the WR1 Average. When using the average of the threshold, we find 11 receivers with more weeks above the average than actual WR1 weeks.

Player#WR1 Weeks#WR1 AVG (19.8 Pts)Difference
Amari Cooper45+1
Calvin Ridley34+1
Michael Gallup34+1
D.J. Moore23+1
Terry McLaurin23+1
Alshon Jeffery23+1
Chris Conley23+1
Adam Thielen12+1
DK Metcalf12+1
Tyrell Williams01+1
Brandin Cooks01+1

We also see 10 players, that were not in the tables above, who lose WR1 weeks compared to the average.

Player#WR1 Weeks#WR1 AVG (19.8 Pts)Difference
Deebo Samuel43-1
Stefon Diggs43-1
Dionte Johnson32-1
John Brown32-1
Zach Pascal32-1
Cole Beasley21-1
Mohamed Sanu21-1
Jaron Brown10-1
Allen Lazard10-1
Jakeem Grant10-1

7. Looking at WR2 & WR3 Weeks

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – DECEMBER 30: D.J. Moore #12 of the Carolina Panthers reacts during the first half against the New Orleans Saints during a NFL game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on December 30, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Here all the players with at least four WR2 weeks.

Player#WR2 Weeks#WR2 AVG (14.5 Pts)Difference
D.J. Moore76-1
Tyler Lockett64-2
Julian Edelman55Even
Allen Robinson55Even
Courland Sutton55Even
DeVante Parker44Even
DeAndre Hopkins46+2
Chris Godwin42-2
Amari Cooper43-1
Calvin Ridley44Even
Golden Tate43-1
Dede Westbrook44Even
Curtis Samuel44Even
Mike Williams42-1

First, we have to acknowledge that differences aren’t all created equally. For example, D.J. Moore lost a WR2 week to moving up to a WR1 while DeAndre Hopkins gained one from a WR1 & WR3 week moving according to the weekly average.

Player#WR3 Weeks#WR3 Avg (10.9 Pts)Difference
Odell Beckham Jr.64-2
John Brown67+1
DK Metcalf67+1
Larry Fitzgerald64-2
Tyler Boyd55Even
Tyrell Williams55Even
Mecole Hardman54-1
Jarvis Landry47+3
Cooper Kupp43-1
Keenan Allen43-1
Randall Cobb43-1
Cole Beasley43-1
Michael Gallup43-1

Again, when it comes to WR3 weeks, the difference can be made up by both moving down from WR2 weeks and up from WR4 weeks.

6. Combined WR1-WR3 Weeks

ATLANTA, GA – JANUARY 22: Julio Jones #11 of the Atlanta Falcons signals a first down in the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game at the Georgia Dome on January 22, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

All my leagues start 3 WR’s. Having guys that hit that threshold consistently are important. Obviously the numbers aren’t equal as WR1 weeks are worth more than WR3 weeks, but this gives us an idea of who is a safe play week-to-week.

Here are the 32 players that were WR1-WR3 in a 50%+ of their teams games.

Michael Thomas113014
Julio Jones63312
DeVante Parker54312
Julian Edelman55212
John Brown32611
Cooper Kupp52411
Keenan Allen43411
Amari Cooper44311
Kenny Golladay62311
Chris Godwin54211
DeAndre Hopkins64111
Odell Beckham Jr.22610
Larry Fitzgerald13610
Tyler Boyd32510
Jarvis Landry33410
Michael Gallup33410
Robert Woods61310
D.J. Moore27110
Allen Robinson55010
DK Metcalf1269
Cole Beasley2349
Golden Tate2439
Deebo Samuel4329
D.J. Chark4329
Calvin Ridley3429
Courtland Sutton2529
Davante Adams6219
Tyler Lockett3609
A.J. Brown5128
Tyreek Hill4228
Mike Evans5128
Terry McLaurin2428

And here is how that list changes when factoring in the average threshold for each of WR1, WR2, & WR3 on the season.

PlayerWR1 (19.8)WR2 (14.5)WR3 (10.9)Total+/-
Michael Thomas1040140
Allen Robinson55313+3
Julio Jones552120
DeVante Parker543120
Julian Edelman552120
Cooper Kupp54312+1
DeAndre Hopkins56112+1
Jarvis Landry32712+2
D.J. Moore36312+2
John Brown227110
Keenan Allen443110
Chris Godwin524110
DK Metcalf22711+2
Amari Cooper53210-1
Kenny Golladay54110-1
Tyler Boyd325100
Courtland Sutton25310+1
Tyler Lockett34310+1
Odell Beckham Jr.2349-1
Larry Fitzgerald1449-1
Michael Gallup4329-1
Robert Woods5319-1
Cole Beasley15390
Golden Tate23490
Deebo Samuel33390
Calvin Ridley44190
Davante Adams53190
A.J. Brown5139+1
Tyreek Hill41380
Terry McLaurin34180
Tyrell Williams1258+1
Stefon Diggs3418+1

As you can see, Tyrell Williams (+1) and Stefon Diggs (+1) jump into the top 32 with Mike Evans (-1) and D.J. Chark (-2) dropping out. The biggest mover was Allen Robinson who only had 10 WR1-WR3 weeks, yet scored 10.9 (WR3 Average) in 13 games.

5. Creating a Value Metric

How do we determine who is the most valuable? Obviously, 12 WR3 weeks would not be as valuable as 5 WR1 & 5 WR2 weeks. To create a value chart, I simply added a value to each level.

  • WR1 = 6
  • WR2 = 4
  • WR3 = 2

Then, to take it a step further, I ran a poll in our FB group and on Twitter to see what weekly score most people saw as a “week winning” score in a vacuum. The options were 25+, 30+, 35+, & 40+.

Here are the results:

30+ was the runaway winner. So, I also gave each player a bonus for weeks of 30+ PPR points.

  • 30+ PPR Points = 4 Points

Here are players with 30+ point weeks.

Player30+ Point Weeks
Michael Thomas4
Chris Godwin3
Mike Evans3
Amari Cooper2
Cooper Kupp2
Darius Slayton2
D.J. Chark2
Tyler Locket2
Robert Woods1
DeAndre Hopkins1
Julio Jones1
D.J. Moore1
Jarvis Landry1
A.J. Brown1
Tyreek Hill1
DeVante Parker1
Marquise Brown1
Keenan Allen1
Tyler Boyd1
Christian Kirk1
Stefon Diggs1
Will Fuller1
John Ross1
John Brown1
Michael Gallup1
Emmanuel Sanders1
Marvin Jones1
Breshad Perriman1
Sammy Watkins1
DeSean Jackson1
Demarcus Robinson1
Taylor Gabriel1
Adam Thielen1

After factoring all that in, I averaged their normal score with their average rank score and came up with the following.

4. The WR1’s

DETROIT, MICHIGAN – DECEMBER 15: Chris Godwin #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signals a first down after a first half catch against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on December 15, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Michael Thomas103.5
Chris Godwin65
DeAndre Hopkins64.5
Julio Jones63.5
Cooper Kupp62
DeVante Parker61
Julian Edelman59
Amari Cooper58.5
Allen Robinson58
Kenny Golladay54.5
Robert Woods54.5
Keenan Allen53

The list changes a little when we divide their score by games played to get their per game average score.

PlayerPer Game Score
Michael Thomas6.57
Chris Godwin4.64
DeAndre Hopkins4.30
Julio Jones4.23
Davante Adams4.21
Mike Evans3.96
Cooper Kupp3.88
DeVante Parker3.81
Julian Edelman3.69
Amari Cooper3.66
Robert Woods3.63
Allen Robinson3.63

3. The WR2’s

SEATTLE, WA – NOVEMBER 03: Wide receiver Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first quarter at CenturyLink Field on November 3, 2019 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)
Tyler Lockett52
Mike Evans51.5
D.J. Moore51.5
Davante Adams50.5
D.J. Chark50
A.J. Brown48
Michael Gallup46.5
Jarvis Landry46
Calvin Ridley43.5
Tyreek Hill43
Tyler Boyd43
John Brown42.5

And the per game WR13-WR24

PlayerPer Game Score
Tyreek Hill3.58
D.J. Moore3.43
Kenny Golladay3.41
Calvin Ridley3.35
D.J. Chark3.33
Michael Gallup3.32
Keenan Allen3.31
Tyler Lockett3.25
Golden Tate3.18
A.J. Brown3.00
Marvin Jones2.92
Jarvis Landry2.88

2. The WR3’s

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – DECEMBER 01: Deebo Samuel #19 of the San Francisco 49ers looks on against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on December 01, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Deebo Samuel41.5
Stefon Diggs41.5
Jamison Crowder40
Courtland Sutton39
Marvin Jones38
Emmanuel Sanders37
Terry McLaurin36.5
Golden Tate35
Odell Beckham34
Cole Beasley33.5
Darius Slayton33
DK Metcalf31.5

And the per game WR25-WR36

PlayerPer Game Score
John Brown2.83
Deebo Samuel2.77
Stefon Diggs2.77
John Ross2.75
Tyler Boyd2.69
Terry McLaurin2.61
Jamison Crowder2.50
Courtland Sutton2.44
Sterling Shepard2.40
Darius Slayton2.36
Alshon Jeffrey2.35
Christian Kirk2.31

1. In Conclusion

GLENDALE, AZ – SEPTEMBER 23: Wide receiver Allen Robinson #12 of the Chicago Bears celebrates a scored touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals in the second half of the NFL game at State Farm Stadium on September 23, 2018 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)

I will be honest, I don’t know at this time how well this whole theory actually works. A discussion in our Facebook Group sent me down a tunnel and here we are.

We do know that there is value in being consistent when it comes to fantasy football. Having guys that are “no-brainers” helps in your decision making on a week-to-week basis.

Factor in the value of having a “week winning” score of 30+ (only 45 of those) during the season and I think for now, this is a fair assessment of WR values.

Let me all know what you think. You can find me @RotoHeatRick on Twitter. Maybe we end up tweaking it after it all soaks in.

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