The season is here and that means it is time to make money on Week 1 PrizePicks (use code HEAT and get a 100% deposit match up to $100)! In this article, I am going to explain why this is my favorite 3-leg prop of the week.

Week 1 PrizePicks Free Square = Tom Brady Over on .5 Passing Yards

Week 1 PrizePicks = Tom Brady
Week 1 PrizePicks - Brady + Fields + Kmet Wins You Money 7

So, this one is pretty easy. PrizePicks is running a week 1 promotion giving you one free leg of your prop. All Tom Brady has to do is throw for 1 passing yard and you have locked in 1/3 of what you need to 5x your entry.

We don’t have to get really deep into the weeds on this one since it is a no-brainer and we all know about Brady. The ability to lock in a free leg of this 3-way prop parlay is a huge benefit.

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Week 1 PrizePicks = Tom Brady
Week 1 PrizePicks - Brady + Fields + Kmet Wins You Money 8

Week 1 PrizePicks = Justin Fields More than 191.5 Passing Yards

Week 1 PrizePicks = Justin Fields
Week 1 PrizePicks - Brady + Fields + Kmet Wins You Money 9

It is no secret that I am a huge Justin Fields fan, but it seems pretty obvious to me that his yardage prop on Week 1 PrizePicks is just too low. While the beginning of the year saw Fields struggle to get to 200 yards passing, that changed in his last 4 starts.

  • Week 9 @ Pittsburgh = 291 Passing Yards
  • Week 11 vs. Baltimore = 79 Passing Yards (Left game injured after just 11 attempts)
  • Week 14 @ Green Bay = 224 Passing Yards
  • Week 15 vs. Minnesota = 285 Passing Yards

In his Week 8 matchup vs. this week’s opponent, the 49ers, he threw for 175 yards.

The kicker is that Justin Fields is now in an offense that is built for him. More movement out of the pocket. More RPO. More Play-Action Pass. All of this will lead to more success for the 2nd year quarterback.

On top of that, the Bears are a touchdown underdog against the 49ers. This plays into potential garbage time yardage which never hurts in regards to a quarterback’s total passing yards. Even if the game is close, Fields should have enough passing work to eclipse the 200 passing yard mark, which puts him firmly over this passing total.

Week 1 PrizePicks = Justin Fields
Week 1 PrizePicks - Brady + Fields + Kmet Wins You Money 10

Week 1 PrizePicks = Cole Kmet More than 32.5 Receiving Yards

Week 1 PrizePicks = Cole Kmet
Week 1 PrizePicks - Brady + Fields + Kmet Wins You Money 11

I personally treat these props as I would DFS. I like to correlate my QB overs with one of their receiving options. Enter Cole Kmet and his criminally low receiving total.

First of all, Kmet topped this in 5 of his last 7 games last year.

  • Week 9 = 87 Receiving Yards
  • Week 12 = 65 Receiving Yards
  • Week 13 = 41 Receiving Yards
  • Week 15 = 71 Receiving Yards
  • Week 16 = 49 Receiving Yards
  • Week 18 = 48 Receiving Yards

As you can see in weeks 9 and 13, Kmet far eclipsed this number. That is two of the last three full games by Justin Fields.

Again, Kmet’s role in the Chicago offense is growing and outside of Darnell Mooney, no receiving option is likely to see the targets that Kmet will this entire season.

Week 1 PrizePicks = Cole Kmet
Week 1 PrizePicks - Brady + Fields + Kmet Wins You Money 12

Locking It In at $50 to win $250

Obviously, we have the free square which makes this a lot easier, but we only need 224.5 total yards for this to win us $200. Obviously, the totals have to fall on Fields and Kmet’s side, something I am sure a lot of people aren’t comfortable with, but I really do think these numbers are too low. For example, even Geno Smith (195.5), Davis Mills (215.5), Trey Lance (205.5), Mitch Trubisky (217.5), Joe Flacco (230.5), and Marcus Mariota (210.5) all have higher passing yard totals.

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