Top 10 Dynasty Quarterbacks in the 2021 Offseason
We’re going to take a look at the Top 10 Dynasty Quarterbacks in the 2021 Offseason and see who you need to be looking to trade for this offseason. These are predictions based on the next 5 to 10 years. Engage with 1,900+ passionate dynasty players and let the RotoHeat content team know what topics YOU want to hear about by visiting our RotoHeat Facebook page.
10. Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow was on his way to breaking all kinds of rookie QB records before tearing his ACL in Week 11 against Washington when he got sacked. From there on, Justin Herbert broke those records, and Burrow became an afterthought. Well, the kid can still play great football, so of course he had to make it as one of my top 10 dynasty quarterbacks.
In 10 games played, Burrow threw for over 300 yards in 5 of them with one of them being a 406 yard performance against the Browns. He did throw 5 INTs during that span, but it impressed me that he never threw more than 1 in a game, which shows that if he messes up he’ll keep his composure. He was also sacked the 3rd most of any QB through the first 11 weeks, going down 32 times. According to Keith Hernandez from RotoBaller, “He had taken 72 hits entering his final game, which was tied for the most by a rookie QB in his first nine games since 2000.”
The injury and expected time it’ll take for him to return will lower his value and ADP, so he’s certainly a buy low, especially in Superflex formats. ACL injuries are the type that won’t end a career, so we can hope for the old Joe Burrow to come back just as good when he’s fully recovered. The only thing to be worried about is that if the Bengals don’t fix the O-Line, he’s going to become an injury magnet. That O-Line will have a lot to do with whether he falls in or out of the top 10 dynasty quarterbacks.
9. Russell Wilson
When I think of Russell Wilson, I think efficiency, and as a fantasy manager, you have to love that. People have dogged on him recently because of his age, but he’s only 32 years old. The MVP of 2020 was a 37 year old Aaron Rodgers, and the Super Bowl champ was a 43 year old Tom Brady. Russell Wilson is going to play great football until he’s at least 38, which gives him 6 years of great production, and that’s why he’s a top 10 dynasty quarterback.
In his 9 years in the NFL, Russell’s worst fantasy finish came his rookie year when he ended as the QB11. He’s been a QB1 for 9 straight years which means he’s productive and durable. Speaking of durable, Wilson has NEVER missed a game in those 9 years. Sam Robinson from Pro Football Rumors reported, “Wilson has been sacked 394 times in his career, having gone down more than 40 times in every season except his 2012 rookie campaign. His 8.33% career sack rate is much higher than most of his peers.” If the Seahawks revamp their O-Line, Wilson will be even better.
This top 10 dynasty quarterback has two great receiving options in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. With these two to feed, Russ will continue to produce big numbers, and if they bring in a 3rd great option, watch out! Wilson will remain a QB1 for years to come, but I’d put him as a low-end QB1 until they fix their O-Line. Russ is a very efficient runner, also, which will always keep him in the QB1 conversation.
8. Lamar Jackson
The 2019 NFL MVP put on a show on his way to a QB1 finish, but then fell off in 2020 and found himself as the QB10 at season’s end. In 2019, he was throwing TDs at an unreal pace that many realized he wouldn’t be able to keep up, and they were correct. If it wasn’t for Lamar’s jaw dropping rushing ability, he wouldn’t be a top 10 dynasty quarterback. For him to be higher on my list, I need to see more from his arm. If he can make the proper adjustments and is committed to working on it, he’ll have QB1 potential every year, but until then he’ll be a mid to low-end QB1 in my eyes.
His rushing ability gives him incredible upside as mobile QBs are usually the ones you target, especially in dynasty leagues. He’s also only 23 years old, and if he can stay away from injury, he’ll have a very bright future. Injury is the main concern here. The way he runs can put him in danger of concussions and other injuries. His durability concerns are the main reason I have him this low on my top 10 dynasty quarterbacks list. This kid has a high ceiling and a decent floor, so he’ll often times be a top QB to covet in fantasy.
7. Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence has been one of the top ranked QBs in every level of his football career, and that doesn’t change heading into the 2021 NFL Draft. His sneaky rushing ability helps bolster him into the top 10 dynasty quarterbacks. The 21 year old will have shoulder surgery this offseason which may cause him to slide a little in start up drafts, so make sure to take advantage of that.
Everyone, including Urban Meyer, knows that Lawrence will be a Jacksonville Jaguar next year. It is tough to evaluate his situation because the Jags have great parts, but they also have a ton of holes in their team. He’ll have a solid receiving core in Laviska Shenault, D.J. Chark, Keelan Cole and Collin Johnson while having James Robinson catching balls out of the backfield. This isn’t the best, but it’s enough weapons to help get Lawrence off the ground.
The top 10 dynasty quarterback will most likely have Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert expectations for his rookie year, and I think Lawrence will live up to the hype. As long as his recovery goes well, I expect him to be a QB1 in fantasy as soon as his 1st year.
6. Justin Herbert
There’s a lot of hype surrounding Herbert after his historic rookie season, and now he finds himself at number 6 in the top 10 dynasty quarterbacks list. He’s got great weapons in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler around him that helps create a solid upside. I’d expect the Chargers to bring him some more help through free agency or the draft in the coming years to solidify that even more.
Justin Herbert set multiple records this season, including most completions by a rookie with 396 (previously set by Carson Wentz with 379), youngest QB in league history to throw for 30 TDs in a single season (previously set by Lamar Jackson last year), most passing TDs by a rookie with 31 (previously held by Baker Mayfield with 27), most total TDs by a rookie with 36 (previously held by Cam Newton with 32) and most 300+ yard games for a rookie with 8 (previously set by Andrew Luck with 6) among other records.
The top 10 dynasty quarterback finished just 39 yards short of the all time rookie passing yards record, but all this is impressive considering he didn’t play in Week 1. He finished as the QB9 in fantasy as he cooled down towards the end of the year. He finished with 4,336 yards, 31 TDs and 10 INTs while rushing for 234 yards and 5 TDs. The 22 year old will be a QB1 for the next decade and will continue to find himself as a top 10 dynasty quarterback.
5. Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott has already fallen in rankings this offseason since he missed much of last season after breaking his ankle in Week 5 against the Giants. In those 5 games, he threw for 1,856 yards and 12 total TDs (9 passing, 3 rushing). He lead all QBs in fantasy points per game with 27.1 (4 points for QB passing TDs) which is why he’s number 5 in my top 10 dynasty quarterbacks, and you could make a case for him to be higher.
The 27-year-old offers sneaky upside with his rushing abilities, and he’s a gunslinger who racks up points with his arm as well. Dak is expected to stay in Dallas through a contract or the franchise tag and has incredible receivers in Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup among others.
Entering Week 5, Dak was the QB1 in scoring which means he has the upside to be the top QB in fantasy. He finished in 2019 as the QB2, so I expect him to continue that trend if he can stay healthy. He’ll be a top 10 dynasty quarterback no matter where he may land, but Dallas gives him the highest ceiling.
4. Kyler Murray
Kyler is a solid passer with DeAndre Hopkins to feed for fantasy production in the pass game while his legs are what helps him make his money in fantasy. In 2020, Murray ran for nearly 1,000 yards, finishing with 819 yards and 11 TDs on the ground. He may be the quickest QB in the league, as he’s right up there with Lamar Jackson.
Kyler just missed the 4,000 yard passing mark with 3,971 yards while throwing for 26 TDs and 11 INTs. I’d expect him to throw 30+ TDs as he gains more chemistry with Hopkins and company this offseason. You also have to love his young age of 23 that will allow him to thrive for many years. Like all rushing QBs though, you have to worry about the possibility of injuries. If he stays healthy, he’ll be a top 10 dynasty quarterback for a long time.
3. Deshaun Watson
It may come as a shock to have Deshaun as a top 3 in my top 10 dynasty quarterbacks with his future being so uncertain, but if he can finish as the QB5 in Houston, he can do it anywhere. The thing we do know is that he can’t go to a situation that is worse than where he was in 2020 after they traded away his boy, Hopkins.
Watson is 25 years old, and similar to Patrick Mahomes, he’s an incredible passer with the ability to run the ball efficiently, but they more so rely on their arms. He’s finished as the QB5 in the past 3 seasons which shows his consistency to be a top QB. If he goes to a team with a good O-Line and receiving threats, he’ll have QB1 potential without a question.
The only thing to worry about would be if the Texans decide not to trade him away, and he sits out the whole season. I personally don’t think he would do that, but it’s always something important to note.
2. Josh Allen
Even with a QB8 finish in 2019, many, including myself, were out on Josh Allen after he ranked last in completion percentage (58.8%) in his second year. This man heard the hate last offseason and responded with a QB1 finish in 2020, improving his completion percentage to 69.2%. The 24 year old is a sure thing when it comes to fantasy production in the next decade, as he’ll see himself firmly towards the top of the top 10 dynasty quarterbacks rankings.
One of the best things about Allen is his rushing TD production, as he’s scored at least 8 TDs in all 3 years of his career. With his rushing upside, it was major to see his passing game improvements, which took his ceiling to the next level. Though he doesn’t get a ton of yards on the ground, it seems he rushes a lot in the red-zone and will continue to do that.
Draft Allen with confidence, and if you didn’t buy low last year, you probably missed your shot. Either way, he’s someone we’ll continue to keep our eye on in hopes that his 2020 season wasn’t just a fluke. With a weapon like Stefon Diggs to feed, their connection will only grow and hopefully their fantasy production will follow suit.
1. Patrick Mahomes
To no one’s surprise, Patrick Mahomes tops the list of the top 10 dynasty quarterbacks heading into the 2021 offseason. He doesn’t offer the rushing upside some of these other guys do, but he just signed a 10 year contract on an offensive firepower team that has Andy Reid at the helm. He’s just so consistent and has Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and more to keep his upside super high.
In 2018, Mahomes finished as the QB1 and scored the 6th best fantasy finish of all time (2nd best for a QB). What he lacks in the rushing upside, he makes up for in his arm talent and throwing TDs. These past 2 years he’s finished as the QB7 (2019) and QB4 (2020). There’s not much more I need to say to convince you that he’s the best QB in the top 10 dynasty quarterbacks list. If you have a chance to get to manage Mahomes, enjoy the constant production.
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