Start or Sit These Players on Monday Night to Win Week 13 Fantasy
I will be with you every step of the way with recommendations on who to start and who to sit for every Monday Night Football matchup. Without further ado, let’s make the moves required to wrap up your Week 13 victory. This week we take a look at an AFC East Divisional matchup between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills.
Mac Jones – New England Patriots
Sully’s Rank: QB22
In the spring of 2021, there were five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. The fifth QB selected, Michael McCorkle “Mac” Jones, season to date has been the best of the bunch.
Mac Jones enters Week 13 as the QB17, averaging 14.76 per game after 12 games. Mac Jones is a really solid “real life” QB, that hasn’t quite delivered at the same level fantasy wise.
In Week 13, Jones and the Patriots face a Buffalo defense that is the best in the league against the quarterback this season. They are allowing on average 12 points a game to the position. In 11 games this season, quarterbacks are averaging 184 passing yards and .72 passing touchdowns a week.
I would not be starting Mac Jones this week, and I get that for some of you sitting him is not easy, especially in 2QB, Superflex leagues. In a week where fantasy managers are starting Mike Glennon and Gardner Minshew, suggesting you sit Mac Jones is a little out there. Jones is a QB that very well may lead his team to victory this week, and in doing so he’s a low end QB2 at best.
Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills
Sully’s Rank: QB4
Last season Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen finished atop the QB rankings with a total of 405.6 points. He enters Week 13 in a comfortable spot atop the standings. Allen averaged 25.32 points a game last season and this season his 24.47 points per game tops the position.
In Week 13, Allen and the Bills face a Patriots defense that is 2nd best fantasy defense against the opposing QB. They are allowing on average 13 points a game to the position. In 12 games this season, quarterbacks are averaging 218 passing yards and 1.17 passing touchdowns a week. In addition they have held the QB to 7 rushing yards a week, and have allowed 1 rushing touchdowns on the season.
Sitting your QB when facing the New England Patriots is expected and understood. Sitting your QB when he is Josh Allen, is neither of those. Ranking Allen at QB4 is done with the opponent baked in. Josh Allen is must every week QB, and if you are fortunate to roster him you already know this.
2. Running Back
New England Backfield
There are few phrases that strike more fear in the hearts of fantasy managers than “The Patriots Backfield”. For years the Patriots have had multiple running backs that they deploy on a weekly basis with little rhyme or reason. The thing is regardless it making any sense, the Patriots are the most successful franchise in recent memory.
In Week 13, the Patriots lock up with the 3rd stingiest fantasy defense. The Bills are allowing on average 20.1 points a game to the position. In 11 games this season Buffalo is giving up on average 77 yards rushing and 9 yards passing to the opposing running backs. In total the Bills have allowed 8 scores on the ground and an additional 2 via the pass.
The Patriots running backs are challenging for fantasy managers again this season with three viable options in Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Brandon Bolden. I have them ranked RB28, RB31, and RB40 respectively. With the current state of the running back position, it’s hard to get away from Harris and Stevenson especially. I would prefer to stay away from the Patriots backfield this week, but if need be deploy these backs as a flex.
Entering Week 13, the Bills backfield is as messy as the Patriots. Devin Singletary enters the week at RB34, Zach Moss at RB37, Matt Brieda at RB67. In recent weeks, Brieda has emerged as a viable fantasy option. Since being inserted into Bills lineup in Week 10, Breida is RB16, Singletary, is RB32, and Moss in only two games is the RB64
This week the Bill face the 19th ranked fantasy run defense when they host the Patriots. The Patriots are allowing on average 24.1 points a game to the position. In 12 games this season New England is giving up on average 102 yards rushing and 56 yards passing to the opposing running backs. In total the Pats have allowed 3 scores on the ground and an additional 1 via the pass.
I have Brieda and Singletary ranked back to back this week at RB26 and RB27. After being a healthy scratch for the second time this season, I have Moss ranked at RB77. I am comfortable with Singletary and Breida as flex plays this week, and Moss can be dropped.
3. Wide Receiver
New England Wide Receivers
The New England Patriots have an average wide receiver core at best. Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, and Nelson Agholor are the primary pass catchers for Mac Jones, and the Pats. Meyers enters the week as WR29, Bourne RB24 and Agholor WR51.
The Buffalo Bills come into the Week as the best fantasy defense against the opponents wide receivers. Thru 11 games this season the Bills have held the opposing pass catchers to a total of 1,313 receiving yards and 3 scores.
Kendrick Bourne has emerged as the top pass catcher for the Patriots since the midpoint of the season. Since Week 6 Bourne is averaging 14.1 PPR points a game and is the WR14. Jakobi Meyers during the same span is WR30 with an average of 10 points a week. Most weeks both receivers would be a solid start, Bourne in the WR2 range and Meyers closer to a flex play. This week I would prefer to stay away from this pass catching crew all together in a game that anticipate to be low scoring.
Buffalo Wide Receivers
When it comes to Buffalo pass catchers, they are led by Stefon Diggs. Diggs burst out last season averaging 20.5 points on route to a WR3 overall finish and 328.6 PPR points.
The Buffalo Bills come into the Week as the 4th best fantasy defense against the opponents wide receivers. Thru 12 games this season the Bills have held the opposing pass catchers to a total of 1,578 receiving yards and 10 scores.
I have Diggs ranked 5th this week, and despite the tough matchup he remains a must start WR. Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley are flex plays for me this week, ranked 49th and 50th respectively. There likely will be some targets for both these pass catchers, but predicating who will get them is too challenging to trust in this important fantasy week.
4. Tight End
Hunter Henry – New England Patriots
Sully’s Rank: TE21
Hunter Henry is a tough TE to trust. The last time I recommended that Henry should be a sit, he scored two touchdowns against the Browns in Week 10. Since then he’s been shut out of the end zone and combined for just seven PPR points in his past two games. If Hunter doesn’t score you will wish he was on your bench. In seven straight he’s been at four catches or less and 37 yards or less. Buffalo has only allowed three touchdowns to tight ends this year, so the odds are against double H this week.
Dawson Knox – Buffalo Bills
Sully’s Rank: TE10
Dawson Knox has been a star since his return from injury, scoring 14 or more fantasy points in two straight games. He’s also played a full complement of snaps in that time to go along with 13 targets. While this week’s matchup against the Patriots isn’t good on paper, the tight end position is thin, and Knox has been hot. I’d keep him in the lineup as a potential top-10 option.
Thank you for reading Start or Sit These Players on Monday Night to Win Week 13 Fantasy.
For all your start/sit questions be sure to reach out to me on Twitter @RotoHeatSully.
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