On this episode of the Dynasty HeatSeekers Podcast, host Ricky Butts and co-hosts Brad Menendez & Taylor Cornell chat with creator of the Running Back Prospect Comparison Tool, David Willsey. Don’t like what you are listening on? Listen on iTunes, Spotify, Player.FM, Stitcher, Podbean, or Google Podcasts.
The Running Back Prospect Comparison tool takes many factors into account while predicting which prospects could not only have success as fantasy assets, but also which ones could have sustained success. Factoring in Age, BMI, Speed, Volume Based Wear & Tear (vW/T), Distance Traveled Adjustment (D/Ta), Physical Tool Grade (P.T.G.), Green Flags, Red Flags, Bell Cow Profile (B.C.P.), Overall Performance Score (OPeS), Overall Prospect Score (OPrS), Potential Seasons Played, Adjusted FF Value Metrics (Per Season/Per Game), Usable Season Average, and FF Consistency Value.
Welcome to the database for the R.B.P.C. Tool and Model (Running Back Prospect Comparison). This is a model/tool comprised of standard statistics and metrics, unique statistics and metrics, as well as other factors that help to predict future draft capital, one of the biggest factors in determining the potential for opportunity to create fantasy value as well as helping to predict the potential for said value based on the player they were in every season of college football. This model takes into account all community college, junior college, D2, D1, redshirt, transfer, injury lost, suspension seasons with the players volume, production, competition, size, speed, age, injury risk, and more to provide a profile for each prospect to help give an idea of each players ceiling and floor potential by comparring to all other drafted running backs from 2005-now.
I hope you enjoy! (Note: Below is a brief description of the unique statistics and metrics used in the Running Back Prospect Comparison model. The R.B.P.C. Tool is currently in the process of being built. Includes 2005-19 classes, 2020 class, 2021-22 prospects, however not complete as of now.) Success Rrates and Draft Capital Projections defined below and you can read the entire description article.
Running Back Prospect Comparison Tool College Descriptions
Volume Based Wear & Tear (vW/T)
Designed to help demonstrate the amount of wear and tear on a players body by looking at their volume and how the were used game by game in college. The lower the number, the less abuse their body took based on volume and type of volume.
Distance Traveled Adjustment (D/Ta)
Designed to help demonstrate a players production in college and how efficient and versatile they were on that production. The higher the number, the more efficient, versatile, and productive they were.
Physical Tool Grade (P.T.G.)
Designed to demonstrate a players performance at the college level by using vW/T, D.T.A., size, speed, age, competition, and injury. Each player has a ceiling, mid, and floor and designated potential draft slot based on each as well as an average. (Drafted players have an accuracy %)
Green Flags (GFs)
Thresholds/ positive signals that if met help show each players upside potential. (Max 15.0, Athletic/ performance and non-performance based) Factors include size & speed, availability & reliability, versatility, pro-readiness, and accolades.
Red Flags (RFs)
Thresholds/ negative signals that if not met, help to show a players downside. (Max 14.0, Athletic/ performance and non-performance based) Factors include injury risk, age, size & speed, volume, production, competition, and off-field factors.
Bell Cow Profile (B.C.P.)
Performance Based GFs.
Overall Performance Score (OPeS)
Designed to help demonstrate each players up or downside based on their performance based flags and injury risk with their Avg P.T.G.
Overall Prospect Score (OPrS)
Similar to OPeS but includes all performance and non-performance based flags. Potential OPrS draft capital displayed and compared to P.T.G. draft capital projection. (Helps thin out players who were so good they outperformed their competition adjustment)
Running Back Prospect Comparison Tool Pro Descriptions
Potential Seasons Played
Takes into account all seasons played as well as factoring in a potential for seasons played based on draft capital (8 Seasons =1st round, 7= 2nd and 3rd, 6= 4th and 5th, 5= 6th and 7th). If player exceeded potential seasons, their seasons played is used.
Adjusted FF Value Metrics (Per season/ per game)
Demonstrate each players fanntasy football value based on their tiered FF production and potential seasons played.
Usable Season Avg
Demonstrates consistency based on tiered production and potential seasons played.
FF Consistency Value
Demonstrates a players consistency accross standard and point per reception scoring formats in fantasy football. Takes into account usable season avg, career, seasonal, and per game adjusted FF value. (Rookies graded on a 1/2 scale, 2nd year, a 2/3rds scale, 3rd year, a 4/5ths scale)