Quarterback Hit Rates 2016-2020
Each and every season, NFL fans look back on the draft and immediately wonder–“Was it a good draft for my team?” At the same time, fantasy managers are busy preparing for their upcoming fantasy drafts and the dynasty managers for their annual rookie drafts. Since joining the RotoHeat team a few years ago, I have been looking into historical data to try and determine hit rates of drafted prospects. Today, I take a look at the quarterback position and their hit rates for those drafted from 2016 through 2020. Frequently we see people labeling these college prospects as “can’t miss” prospects. Well, I hate to break to you Heat Seekers, but there is no such thing as a sure thing.
In order to review hit rates, it’s important to define what qualifies as a hit. I define quarterback hits as any QB that has delivered a top-12 season at any point in their career. A QB that has multiple top-12 seasons is a Super-Hit and a QB with multiple top-6 finishes is a Mega-Hit.
Since the 2016 NFL draft, there have been 61 quarterbacks drafted. Of those 61 QBs – 18 were first round selections, 6 in the second, 4 in the third, 9 in the fourth, and a total of 24 selected in rounds 5-7. What the data will shows us is that draft capital is king. It’s king at all of the skill positions, but nowhere is it more impactful than at the QB position.
5. Rounds 5-7
What should come as little surprise is quarterbacks selected in round 5-7 have delivered a grand total of 0 hit seasons from 2016-2020. After 24 QBs and a total of 21 seasons, the closet QB to get there was Gardner Minshew in 2019 when he finished as QB20. 12 of the 24 QBs selected in these rounds have either finished their careers without appearing in a game or have yet to take a snap. So clearly this in not a range to target your next fantasy QB.
Sleepers at the QB position in these rounds simply don’t exist. Taking a look back to 2010, there were an additional 28 QBs selected between 2010-2015. One, and only one, has ever delivered a top-12 fantasy season. That would be Tyrod Taylor back in 2016. So, dating back to 2010, there were 89 drafted QBs and only 1 hit (1.12%), so clearly this is a range to avoid when shopping for your next great fantasy QB.
4. Round 4
Jumping into round 4 and taking a look at the 9 QBs drafted from 2016-2020, there is one shinning star here and that is Dallas Cowboy QB Dak Prescott.
Dak, from 2016-2019, delivered a hit season in all of them, and at the time of his injury a season ago (QB1), he was well on his way to another. His fantasy finishes have been QB6, 11, 10, 2 and 33. Dak not only hit once, but has done it multiple times and has multiple top 6 fantasy finishes. Dak Prescott is a Mega-Hit fantasy QB.
Prescott is an outlier of extreme proportions, as Dak is the only 4th round QB to deliver a top-12 season since 2016, and one of only 2 who have done it since 2010. The only other QB drafted in Round 4 to deliver you a hit season is Minnesota Vikings’ QB Kirk Cousins, who has accomplished the feat four times. So similar to rounds 5-8, leave these QBs alone. With only two Hit QB out of 25 dating back to 2010, these are not odds worth taking a second look at.
3. Round 3
Sadly, round 3 isn’t much better. In fact, it is worse.
We have seen a total of 4 Quarterbacks have their named called in the 3rd round since 2016, and the best we have from this bunch is Mason Rudolph’s QB30 finish in 2019. Looking back to 2010, there were an additional 7 QBs selected. Of these, two have given you what you crave in a QB12 or better season. Nick Foles was QB12 in 2013, and Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, was the gold standard for 3rd round QBs. Wilson has played in 9 seasons, and all have delivered a top-12 QB result. In five of those nine seasons, Wilson has finished inside the top-6, including 3 of the past 4 season. Russell Wilson is a Mega-hit fantasy QB.
2. Round 2
Since the 2016 NFL Draft, there have been a total of 6 QBs selected in round 2, and they have produced a grand total of zero top-12 finishes. The best we have seen from these 6 was a QB20 finish from Jacoby Brissett in 2017 and a QB23 finish from Drew Lock last season. Jalen Hurts, selected by the Eagles last season with pick 53, is likely the best bet to provide a hit season. In Weeks 12-16, when Hurts was the Eagles starting QB, he was QB18.
Taking a look further back, there were 7 QBs selected in the second round from 2010-2015. During this time, 3 of the 7 have delivered a hit season – Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, and Derek Carr. Andy Dalton would be the only Super-Hit here as he was a top-12 QB in three straight seasons from 2011-2013. In total, QBs drafted in the second round of the NFL draft have a 23% hit rate, a 7.8% chance of being a Super-Hit, and a 0% chance of hitting Mega-Hit status based on the data reviewed over the last 11 NFL seasons.
1. Round 1
Round 1 is the round you have all been waiting for. As one would expect, the hit rates increase when we look at the top drafted quarterbacks from each season. What I find interesting is the hits are not as frequent as I would have expected. From 2016-2020 there have been 18 quarterbacks drafted and only 8 (44%) of them have delivered a hit season. For every Jared Goff, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes, we have a Paxton Lynch, Josh Rosen, and Sam Darnold.
Where we see a big jump is in the Super-Hit category, meaning QBs that have hit the top-12 more than once. 7 (39%) of these QBs have achieved that status — Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Patrick Mahomes, Deshawn Watson, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray.
Mega-Hit wise there are three–Patrick Mahomes, Deshawn Watson and Josh Allen. Kyler Murray was close, and I would say is a good bet to achieve Mega-Hit status when we do this all over again a year from now. What stands out when looking at these 18 QBs is that only 2 achieved hit status as a rookie – Kyler and Justin Herbert. When you include the first rounders from 2010-2015, three more achieved a hit season as a rookie–Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Robert Griffin III.
Taking a further look at the QBs from 2010-2015, we have a total of 16 drafted, and those 16 have given us 18 hit seasons. Those 18 hit seasons, however, were courtesy of only 7 QBs. 44% of QBs drafted from 2010-2015 failed to reach QB1 status at any point in their career. 4 of the 16 had multiple top-12 seasons (25%), and only two, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck, were Mega-Hit QBs.
In conclusion, we have 61 quarterbacks drafted since the 2016 NFL Entry draft. Those 61 quarterbacks have produced a total of 21 top-12 or better finishes. Those 21 top-12 or better finishes came from 9 of the 61 quarterbacks. 8 of the 9 were first round selections–or 89%. The bottom line is that first round drafted QBs are the only quarterbacks that should be considered when you are drafting your rookies this Spring.
As of today, there are 5 rookie quarterbacks that are projected to be selected in the first round on Thursday, April 29th–Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and Mac Jones. Historical data dating back to 2010 tells us that 38% of them will bring you a top-12 fantasy season at some point during their careers. Basically only two of these top-5 rookie QBs will hit during their careers. 32% (2) of them will do it more than once, and 14%, or 1 of them, will have multiple top-6 finishes and reach Mega-Hit status.
Of the 5 Mega-Hit first round quarterbacks drafted since 2010, two were the first overall selection (Cam Newton and Andrew Luck), Josh Allen was the 7th overall selection, Deshawn Watson went 10th, and Patrick Mahomes, likely the best of them all, was the 12th pick in 2017.
Your greatest odds of drafting your next great fantasy quarterback come from the first-round selections. This should not be overly surprising. It is, however, another example of draft capital being king above all else. Landing spot is vastly overrated in general, and insignificant when it comes to the rookie QB.
Thank you for reading 2016-2020 Quarterback Hit Rates
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