Need Someone to Weigh in On Your Latest Football Bet? Just Ask Joe!
Welcome back, folks! Week 7 was interesting in many respects. First, it provided more evidence that Tampa Bay and Green Bay are not the contenders we once thought they were.
Furthermore, maybe it is time we started taking upstarts like the New York Jets and New York Giants seriously. As for my picks in Week 7, I felt fortunate enough to survive with a winning record, going 8-6 both against the spread and straight up.
Comparing my picks to those of 8 experts at CBS (making picks against the spread), I was about middle of the pack.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Proud Of
Even though they had been struggling to win games this year, I just felt that the Raiders would take care of business versus the Texans at home.
By covering a 7-point spread, the Raiders played their best game of the season. I like for them to play good football from here on out. It would not surprise me at all if they won their next 5 games.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Ashamed Of
I found out over the weekend that Russell Wilson was not going to play. Yet, I stayed with the Broncos to beat the Jets at home.
Shame on me. The Jets have been playing good football, while the Broncos have not. This should have been an easy one, and I messed it up by overthinking things.
Overall Record Against the Spread: 59-47-2; Overall Record Straight Up: 59-49
So, with Week 7 in the books, it is time to start thinking about Week 8’s slate of games. Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 8 of the 2022 season.
All odds courtesy of bet365 (as of October 25, 2022).
Baltimore (-1.5) at Tampa Bay
This is a very tough game to pick. If the Bucs are going to turn their season around, it needs to start with this one at home.
If the Bucs’ Offense does not have a good showing versus this leaky Ravens’ Defense, it will be hard to trust them moving forward.
Pick: Bucs to win.
Denver vs. Jacksonville (-3)
This is another tough game to pick. I have been getting the Jags and Broncos’ games wrong all year. Nothing at all would surprise me in this, and I would advise bettors to stay away from this one.
For anyone thinking of seriously betting this game, however, it makes sense to monitor Russell Wilson’s status.
With the Jags favored by more than a FG, it is hard not to like the Broncos in this neutral-site game.
Pick: Broncos to win.
Carolina at Atlanta (-5.5)
The Panthers are coming off a massive upset of the Bucs. What made this even more shocking was the fact that the Panthers were playing with their third-string QB. And their best offensive weapon was traded to San Francisco.
Nonetheless, even though the Falcons lost last week, they have been better the team all year. And they are at home. Thus, I like them to take care of business in this one.
Pick: Falcons to win and cover the spread.
Chicago at Dallas (-10)
The Cowboys were lucky to survive the Lions last week. The score in that game does not do justice to how close that game actually was.
Now that Dak has had a chance to shake off the rust, I like the Cowboys to put forth a better effort offensively. And we already know their defense will be stout and should give Bears QB Justin Fields fits.
And when you factor in that the Bears are coming off a short week have to go on the road for this one, it becomes a fairly easy pick for me.
However, until I see the Cowboys’ offense ball out, it is tough to pick them to cover such a large spread against anyone.
Pick: Cowboys to win, but Bears against the spread.
Miami (-3) at Detroit
This is a winnable game for Detroit. They are at home and slated to get some key contributors back from injury.
Even so, I am just not convinced that this team can close out a good team like the Dolphins. With a healthy Tua at the helm, I like the Dolphins to carve up that porous Lions defense.
Pick: Dolphins to win.
Arizona at Minnesota (-3.5)
This is a huge game for both teams. The Cards need this one to build off of their win last week and turn around what has been a disappointing season thus far.
And the Vikes absolutely need to beat NFC teams like Cards at home to show they are legit contenders in the NFC.
In the past, the Vikings would drop a game like this, and the roller coaster ride would continue. However, this year just feels different. While the Cards are certainly capable of an upset here, I think the Vikings get the job done.
From pre-Week 1, I thought the Vikings and Eagles would be contenders for the NFC crown. This game will tell us a lot about whether the Vikings really are on such a path.
Whatever happens though, I think it will be a closely-contested game that should go down to the wire.
Pick: Vikings to win, but Cards against the spread.
Las Vegas (-2) at New Orleans
Usually, I love taking home underdogs and the points. However, I just feel that this Saints’ team may not be up to the task.
While I expect them to battle hard and keep it close, I feel that the Raiders and their superior health and firepower will ultimately prevail.
Pick: Raiders to win and cover the spread.
New England (-1.5) at New York Jets
This feels like a fork-in-the-road kind of game for both teams. If the Jets really are a playoff contender, they absolutely have to beat AFC teams like the Patriots.
Similarly, if the Pats are going to be more than also-rans, they need to continue their dominance over the Jets.
I have been guilty all year long of living in the past. But now I have to learn from my mistakes and just go with what I am seeing. The Jets are the better team.
While the loss of Breece Hall hurts, the Jets are at home and ultra-motivated to make a statement against a team that has embarrassed them for decades. This is the time!
Pick: Jets to win.
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-10.5)
The undefeated Eagles are at home coming off a BYE. The Steelers will have trouble keeping this one close.
Pick: Eagles to win and cover the spread.
Tennessee at Houston (-1)
This is a very tough one to pick. Against my better instincts, I am picking a road favorite to cover.
After uneven starts to the season, I just feel that both teams are finally settling into what we thought they would be. The Titans are a good team with playoff aspirations, while the Texans are a gritty team who are still a year or two away.
Update: It is being reported that QB Ryan Tannehill will miss this game. Thus, rookie QB Malik Willis will get his first start. As a result, the line moved 2.5 points Houston’s way. But I am sticking with the Titans to win a close game.
Pick: Titans to win.
Washington at Indianapolis (-3)
This is my upset of the week. Without Carson Wentz at the helm, I just feel a more positive vibe coming from the Commanders. QB Taylor Heinicke has shown he can get the job done, and his teammates clearly respond to him and his leadership.
The Colts have been doing it with mirrors all year. They can beat or lose to anyone it seems. In this tight match-up, I will take Washington and the points.
Pick: Commanders to win.
San Francisco (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams
I know I must sound like a broken record by now. But this game also feels like a season defining moment for both teams.
Coming off two consecutive losses, the Niners absolutely have to have this intra-divisional showdown.
But can they really beat a well-rested Rams team at home coming off a BYE? If I had to pick this one, I would go with the Niners and take the points. After trading for Christian McCaffrey, the Niners are all in and will play this one like their lives depend on it.
Pick: Niners to win and cover the spread.
New York Giants at Seattle (-3)
I expect this to be a close game that could go either way. The 6-1 Giants have shocked the football world. And the 4-3 Hawks have been another pleasant surprise.
If Cooper Rush can beat the Giants in New York, then I have to believe that Geno Smith and his upstart Seahawks can beat them in Seattle.
Pick: Seahawks to win.
Green Bay at Buffalo (-10.5)
I had a brief vision of Aaron Rodgers orchestrating an improbable upset of the Bills in Orchard Park this week.
However, I then splashed some cold water on my face and woke up. This Bills’ team is the best in the NFL this year (sorry, Eagles fans). And they are nearly impossible to beat at home, especially coming off a BYE.
The only real question is whether they can cover such a large spread. I am going to trust that back-to-back reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers can at least keep his team within ten points.
Pick: Bills to win, but Packers against the spread.
Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland
Both teams are coming off impressive wins. And like so many games this week, the results of this intra-divisional showdown can have season-impacting ramifications.
While I respect the Browns for battling hard each week, I just feel they are ultimately limited with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.
The Bengals reminded us of their ceiling last week. And that is enough for me to pick them to win this one on the road.
Pick: Bengals to win and cover the spread.
Thank you for reading “NFL Week 8 Picks Against the Spread: Just Ask Joe!” I really enjoyed speculating about these games, and hope I was able to shed a little light.
Make sure to hit me up on Twitter or Facebook with any comments and/or to simply tell me how wrong I was. For more analyses, check out our website (and especially the part that deals with betting) and/or join us on Discord.