Need Someone to Weigh in On Your Latest Football Bet? Just Ask Joe!
Welcome back, folks! Week 5 saw more amazing games and great finishes. Such parity is fun for football fans but not so enjoyable for bettors. After a good Week 4, I thought I was finally starting to get a handle on things.
However, a rough Week 5 has made me rethink my approach once again. In Week 5, I went 7-8-1 against the spread and 9-7 straight up. Comparing my picks to those of 8 experts at CBS (making picks against the spread), I was in the middle of the pack.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Proud Of
The Lions (and their number one offense) were a popular pick to beat the Patriots in Week 5. Somehow, I knew in my heart that the Patriots would beat the Lions in this one.
Of course, I understand the rationale for betting against the Patriots. Decimated by injuries, the Pats were coming off two consecutive losses and were forced to start their rookie (fourth-round pick) Bailey Zappe against the Lions.
My pick in this one had more to do with the Lions. I have seen the Lions enough to know that they often find a way to beat themselves, especially on the road against decent opponents.
While I do not think the Pats are an especially good team, I knew they would not beat themselves to the extent that the Lions would. Sometimes, it’s just that easy folks.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Ashamed Of
I actually lost several games by a point, so there are many picks I could name here. However, similar to Week 4, the Saints seem to have my number.
In the last two weeks, injuries to key Saints players, which were not announced until late in the week, caused me to change my pick the night before the game. I would have won both games if I had not changed my picks, so excuse me if I am a bit salty now.
That is the nature of the beast though. As I said when I made the pick, bettors should stay away from such games when they have no idea who will end up playing and what state they will be in if they do.
Overall Record Against the Spread: 43-35-2; Overall Record Straight Up: 45-35
So, with Week 5 in the books, it is time to start thinking about Week 6’s slate of games. Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 6 of the 2022 season.
All odds courtesy of bet365 (as of October 11, 2022).
Washington at Chicago (-1)
In a game like this between two struggling teams, I will go with the home team.
Washington certainly has more firepower. However, with Wentz at QB, they are also the team more likely to implode in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Bears to win and cover the spread.
San Francisco (-5.5) at Atlanta
If I have learned anything this season, it is to respect the home dog. I think the Falcons do enough to at least keep it close.
Pick: Niners to win, but Falcons against the spread.
New England at Cleveland (-3)
Forget about what the Pats did last week. That was at home versus the Lions. The Browns are the more talented and desperate team.
I think they will force the Patriots out of their conservative game plan. And when they do, the Browns will own the day.
Pick: Browns to win and cover the spread.
New York Jets at Green Bay (-7)
Until the Packers actually blow some teams away, I am going to assume most of their games are going to be close.
I think they win this one by a TD.
Pick: Packers to win, but Jets against the spread.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-1.5)
This is a very tough one to pick. On one hand, I truly believe the Jags are the better club.
On the other hand, the Jags cannot be trusted, especially on offense. And when you throw in the fact that the Colts are at home and their defense is playing well, I will take them here by default.
Pick: Colts to win and cover the spread.
Minnesota (-3) at Miami
I am reading that Tua is unlikely to play this weekend. Thus, I have no choice but to pick the inconsistent Vikings. Miami’s offense seems to be stuck in neutral without Tua at the helm.
For now, I will take the Bikes to win and cover. But I reserve the right to change my pick should Bridgewater play. Even of he does, I think the Vikings should be able to win on the road in this one.
Pick: Vikings to win and cover the spread.
Cincinnati (-3) at New Orleans
Let’s see who is playing QB for the Saints before we commit to a team here. For now, under the assumption that Winston is back, I like the Saints to win this one at home.
Update: It appears that Winston will be active, but Dalton will get the start. If that were not enough, Marshon Lattimore and Jarvis Landry are also not slated to play. And other key contributors, such as Taysom Hill and Chris Olave, are questionable.
Pick: Bengals to win and cover the spread.
Baltimore (-5.5) at New York Giants
It is interesting to see how little respect the Giants are being given. The Giants are 4-1 and at home, yet they are a significant underdog.
I think they can do enough to at least make it interesting.
Pick: Ravens to win, but Giants against the spread.
Tampa Bay (-8) at Pittsburgh
This is an especially tough one to pick. When a proud franchise like the Steelers suffers an embarrassing defeat, they usually come out with a vengeance in their next game. And it will be in Pittsburgh, so they will at least have that going for them.
Having said that, however, I just do not think Pittsburgh is very good this year. And Tampa Bay is a tough match-up for them.
In the end, I think the Bucs will win it, but the Steelers D keeps them in the game. If the Falcons can cover against the Bucs, then so can the Steelers.
Pick: Bucs to win, but Steelers against the spread.
Carolina at Los Angeles Rams (-10.5)
It is time to stop thinking of the 2021 Rams. Besides stud WR Copper Kupp, the 2022 edition is quite different.
I have no idea what the Rams have done to be favored so much. Perhaps this is a testament to how bad people think the Panthers are.
I think the Rams will win it, but the Panthers should at least be able to make it a four-quarter game. They will come out hard for their new coach in this one.
Pick: Rams to win, but Panthers against the spread.
Arizona (-3) at Seattle
The Cards are the more desperate and talented team. I think the Cards find a way to get back on track in this one.
Pick: Cardinals to win and cover the spread.
Buffalo (-3) at Kansas City
Football fans are in for a treat here. The two best teams in the AFC square off in a rematch of last year’s divisional showdown in Kansas City.
That game was one for the ages and provided the kind of elite quarterback play that people tell their grandchildren about. Josh Allen played a perfect game and yet was still somehow outdueled by Patrick Mahomes.
I am going to go for history repeating itself in this one.
Pick: Chiefs to win and cover the spread.
Dallas at Philadelphia (-5)
This is a tough one for me personally. The Cowboys are my team, and I love what they are doing right now.
If a healthy Dak Prescot were playing in this one, I would consider the Cowboys. As it stands now, I am going with the Eagles to win this one at home. This is the week the world is reminded that Cooper Rush is a backup QB.
Pick: Eagles to win and cover the spread.
Denver at Los Angeles Chargers (-5)
I have been calling for a Broncos breakout for three weeks now. I think we should start believing what we are seeing.
Russell Wilson looks like a shadow of his former self. And with that, it is pretty clear to see that his teammates and coaches are losing confidence in him.
Although the Chargers can be inconsistent, I think they are the better team and will focus enough to handily beat a division rival.
Pick: Chargers to win and cover the spread.
Thank you for reading “NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread: Just Ask Joe!” I really enjoyed speculating about these games, and hope I was able to shed a little light.
Make sure to hit me up on Twitter or Facebook with any comments and/or to simply tell me how wrong I was. For more analyses, check out our website (and especially the part that deals with betting) and/or join us on Discord.