Need Someone to Weigh in On Your Latest Football Bet? Just Ask Joe!
Welcome back, folks! Week 13 had several marquee matchups. After losing in Cincinnati, Kansas City is no longer the top seed in the AFC. The Eagles, however, dominated a good Titans’ team. And, despite playing most of the game with their third-string QB, the Niners manhandled the Dolphins.
As for my picks in Week 13, I was mediocre, going 8-7 against the spread (and 9-6 straight up). Comparing my picks to those of 8 experts at CBS (making picks against the spread), I was in the middle of the pack this week but continue to lead the overall season picks against the spread.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Proud Of
The Thursday night game was pretty cut and dry for me. The Patriots just do not have the firepower to keep up with a team like the Bills. I knew they win this one going away.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Ashamed Of
I should have given the Eagles more respect than I did. I had the Eagles winning but Tennessee covering a six-point spread. The Eagles are the best team in the NFL, and they were at home versus a limited Titan team. What was I thinking? Of course, the Eagles were going to destroy them.
Overall Record Against the Spread: 104-85-6; Overall Record Straight Up: 114-81
So, with Week 13 in the books, it is time to start thinking about Week 14’s slate of games. Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 14 of the 2022 season.
All odds courtesy of bet365 (as of December 6, 2022).
Las Vegas (-6) at Los Angeles Rams
The Raiders have won three in a row and are starting to look like the team we thought they would be at the start of the season.
The Rams have so many players out right now that they are unrecognizable. This is an easy one. Take the Raiders to cover.
Pick: Raiders to win and cover the spread.
New York Jets at Buffalo (-9)
The Jets are now in the tougher portion of their schedule. Once again, I expect that they will battle hard.
But I look for the Bills to exact revenge for an early season loss that still seems unfathomable. Mike White is an upgrade over Zach Wilson to be sure. But the more he plays, the more people will come to see that he is also not the long-term answer.
Pick: Bills to win and cover the spread.
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-6)
Despite looking rusty in his 2022 debut, Deshaun Watson and the Browns got the dub in Week 13. However, the Bengals are not the Texans and will not gift-wrap three TDs to defense and special teams.
After beating the Chiefs last week, the Bengals have shown they are a legit super bowl contender in the AFC. Hence, I like them to take care of a perky Browns team in this one.
Pick: Bengals to win and cover the spread.
Houston at Dallas (-17)
It is hard to fathom that this will be a close game. The Cowboys are the superior team in every way and are at home.
If they do not destroy the Texans in this one, Mike McCarthy should be fired before Week 15.
Pick: Cowboys to win and cover the spread.
Minnesota at Detroit (-1)
The Lions are playing every team tough these days and are fully capable of winning this game. However, the Vikes are having a special season and finding ways to win at the end of ball games. I look for that trend to continue.
Pick: Vikings to win and cover the spread.
Philadelphia at New York Giants (-7)
The Eagles are the team to beat in the NFC. And the Giants just do not have pieces to hang with them. I know these intra-divisional games can be tricky sometimes. But I think this is the exception. I am expecting the Eagles to crush the G-men.
Pick: Eagles to win and cover the spread.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3)
A few weeks ago, it would have been easy to pick the Ravens to rout the Steelers. But since then, the Steelers have won consecutive games. And they are at home for this intra0dvisional showdown.
It seems likely that Lamar Jackson will sit this one out after suffering a knee injury. If this is the case, I will take the Steelers to win a close game at home.
Pick: Steelers to win and cover the spread.
Jacksonville at Tennessee (-3.5)
This feels like a get-right week for the Titans. After dropping two in a row, they are delighted to welcome the Jags to Tennessee.
I think the Titans are the better team and will win. But they hardly ever blow anyone away.
Pick: Titans to win and cover the spread.
Miami at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
This is such an important game for both teams. Both teams are coming off losses and will come out fighting in this one. Whoever loses this game may have a tough time making the playoffs this year.
I may change my pick later in the week upon studying developments. But for now, I like the Dolphins to win a close one.
Pick: Dolphins to win.
Tampa Bay at San Francisco (-3.5)
It is hard to pick against the red-hot Niners right now. But if they are starting a rookie, third-string QB, I feel obliged to take the Bucs and the points. The Niners defense will keep this game close regardless of who plays QB for them.
Pick: Bucs to win.
Carolina at Seattle (-3.5)
The Seahawks absolutely have to win games like this if they plan to make the playoffs. I think they will make a statement and destroy the Panthers, who have already started to track their draft position for next year.
Pick: Seahawks to win and cover the spread.
Kansas City (-9) at Denver
The Chiefs coming off a loss feels like a sure thing. However, while I think the Chiefs will win this one, I think the Broncos will give them all they can handle.
Pick: Chiefs to win, but Broncos against the spread.
New England (-1) at Arizona
This is a tough one to pick. While I think the Cards are the more talented team, I just do not see the Pats going quietly into the good night. I expect this to be a close game. Ultimately, I will take the Cards at home, but I do not feel especially confident about this.
Pick: Cards to win.
Thank you for reading “NFL Week 14 Picks Against the Spread: Just Ask Joe!” I really enjoyed speculating about these games, and hope I was able to shed a little light.
Make sure to hit me up on Twitter or Facebook with any comments and/or to simply tell me how wrong I was. For more analyses, check out our website (and especially the part that deals with betting) and/or join us on Discord.