Need Someone to Weigh in On Your Latest Football Bet? Just Ask Joe!
Welcome back, folks! Week 10 was exciting in that we had several games go down to the wire. The Bills and the Cowboys let huge leads slip away to the Vikings and Packers, respectively. And the Bucs have now won two consecutive games and are back in the thick of things in the NFC.
After an atrocious Week 9, I rebounded a bit in Week 10, going 8-6 against the spread and 7-7 straight up. Comparing my picks to those of 8 experts at CBS (making picks against the spread), I was in the middle of the pack.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Proud Of
The Dolphins have been quite good to me this year. I knew the Browns would have trouble keeping up with them in Week 10. The Dolphins scored 39 points, yet it somehow felt like they should have had more.
I also was glad I picked the Steelers to beat the Saints. The Steelers are a proud organization and do not lay down for anyone. We knew we were going to get their best effort coming out of the BYE.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Ashamed Of
I should have taken the Packers over the Cowboys. Or, at the very least, I should have known that it was going to be a close game and that they would cover the spread.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have absolutely owned the Cowboys. And the Cowboys D has suddenly sprung a few leaks.
When you throw in the fact that Mike McCarthy is the Cowboys’ coach, it should have been easy to pick against them.
Overall Record Against the Spread: 78-68-4; Overall Record Straight Up: 85-65
So, with Week 10 in the books, it is time to start thinking about Week 11’s slate of games. Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 11 of the 2022 season
All odds courtesy of bet365 (as of November 15, 2022).
Tennessee at Green Bay (-3)
Green Bay was fortunate to win last week. However, unlike the Cowboys, the Titans are well-coached and mentally tough.
I like for the Titans to survive a hard-fought defensive battle.
Pick: Titans to win.
Chicago at Atlanta (-3)
Although the Falcons are still alive in their divisional race, I just do not see them as being a very good team.
This should be a close game. And I believe many points will be scored.
The Bears have been so close the last few weeks. I look for them to finally break through and get the W.
Pick: Bears to win.
Carolina at Baltimore (-12)
Fans should not get too excited about the Panthers’ win against the Falcons last week. Although the players may not have been told, this is clearly a team that has thrown in the towel this season.
The Ravens, on the other hand, are hitting their stride and should take care of business in this one. And I think this is the kind of game where bench players can get playing time.
Pick: Ravens to win and cover the spread.
Cleveland at Buffalo (-9.5)
I feel sorry for Cleveland in this one. After losing a crazy game to Minnesota last week, the Bills are going to take out all of their frustration on the Browns.
Having said that, however, I think the Browns’ running game and conservative game plan may be able to keep the game from getting too out of hand.
Pick: Bills to win, but Browns against the spread.
Washington (-3) at Houston
The Commanders are still playing like their lives depended on it. And the Texans seem to already be playing for next year.
Pick: Commanders to win and cover the spread.
Philadelphia (-7.5) at Indianapolis
The Eagles should win this game. However, I am reluctant to bet against home underdog getting that many points.
The Colts showed enough life last week to make me think they will at least play hard. And reinserting Matt Ryan at QB shows they really are playing to win.
Pick: Eagles to win, but Colts against the spread.
New York Jets at New England (-3)
A few weeks ago, I took the Jets to defeat the Patriots in New York. I am not going to make the same mistake again.
New England owns the Jets until they prove otherwise.
Pick: Patriots to win and cover the spread.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans (-3)
I have no idea why the Saints are playing Andy Dalton over Jameis Winston at QB.
Regardless, assuming Matt Stafford returns, I am taking the Rams and the points in this one.
Pick: Rams to win.
Detroit at New York Giants (-3)
The Lions have won two in a row. And the Giants keep beating teams that they should beat.
I expect the Giants to win another close game. But nothing at all would surprise me here.
Pick: Giants to win, but Lions against the spread.
Las Vegas at Denver (-2.5)
I have had such bad luck picking both these teams. I keep thinking they are better than they actually are and will finally wake up.
In a game like this, I am going to take the Raiders simply because they are getting points. But I would advise any serious bettors to stay away from these types of games.
Pick: Raiders to win.
Cincinnati (-5) at Pittsburgh
Pick: Bengals to win, but Steelers against the spread.
The Steelers’ win versus the Saints might end up being the highlight of their season. I think the Bengals find a way to get revenge for a fluky Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh. But it should be close.
Dallas (-1) at Minnesota
The Cowboys went into Minnesota last year with Cooper Rush and got the W. Having said that, however, I did not like what I saw from the Cowboys at Green Bay last week.
They just could not close out the game when it counted. I expect the Cowboys to find a way to beat themselves once again. The Vikings will prevail in a tight one.
Pick: Vikings to win and cover the spread.
Kansas City (-7) at Los Angeles Chargers
When these two teams play, the games are usually very close. And the Chiefs usually prevail.
I am banking on history repeating itself here. I will take the Chiefs to win it with a late score.
Pick: Chiefs to win, but Chargers against the spread.
San Francisco (-8) vs. Arizona
This game has huge ramifications in the AFC West. Both teams desperately need this one.
Kyler Murray is banged up, and his status for this game remains uncertain.
The Niners have better coaching, a better D, and a game-breaking RB. Thus, I have to pick them here. But 8 points are a lot to cover. I may revisit this game later this week.
Pick: Niners to win and cover the spread.
Thank you for reading “NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread: Just Ask Joe!” I really enjoyed speculating about these games, and hope I was able to shed a little light.
Make sure to hit me up on Twitter or Facebook with any comments and/or to simply tell me how wrong I was. For more analyses, check out our website (and especially the part that deals with betting) and/or join us on Discord.