The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled; Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer.  Approaching the 2020 season, I am happy to bring you the third annual installment of this series.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We kick off the 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – with the NFC West

4. Arizona Cardinals

Buy Sell Take the Flyer
GLENDALE, ARIZONA – SEPTEMBER 22: Wide receiver Christian Kirk #13 of the Arizona Cardinals carries the ball in the first half of the NFL game against the Carolina Panthers at State Farm Stadium on September 22, 2019 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer – NFC West

Two Players I am buying

Christian Kirk – Overall ADP 104 WR39

Christian Kirk has struggled with health in his two NFL seasons, averaging 10 games a season.  In his rookie year in the worst offense in football, Kirk was WR58 averaging 10.3 PPR points a game.  Quite a respectable finish considering he was a rookie and his team threw for only 2884 yards all season.  In year two in a vastly improved offense Kirk finished as WR38 averaging 12.9 PPR points a game. 

With DeAndre Hopkins coming to town as the primary target, Kirk if he can stay healthy, will benefit.  I look for the Cardinals offense as a whole to improve this season and with 4 WR wide sets Kirk should be able to exceed this current APD and provide a positive return on investment

Chase Edmonds – Overall ADP 162 RB54

I am not a fan of handcuffs in fantasy football, however during this pandemic, and the increased chances of starters missing time, they are likely in need, more in 2020 than ever before.  When it comes to handcuffs, Chase Edmonds is one of the best.  He ranked 8th in our very own JayWall’s 2020 Top 10 NFL Handcuffs article.

In his article, JayWall wrote – In his rookie season, Chase Edmonds never saw more than 38% of offensive snaps and yet had a 20+ point game against the Packers in Week 13. Last season, he played well in Weeks 5 and 6, posting double digits in both. In Week 7, David Johnson was injured, and Edmonds finally got his chance to show how dominant he can be against the Giants. He had a monstrous number, posting 126 yards, scoring 3 TDs on the ground, as well as 2 catches for 24 yards, thus showcasing why he made the 2020 Top 10 NFL Handcuffs list. Now the backup to Kenyan Drake, Edmonds is a great handcuff to have in case Drake goes down, even if it’s just for a couple games.  Chase Edmonds has legit top 12 upside if he gets the work, and at 162 overall I am buying his all day.

Two Players I am selling

Kyler Murray – Overall ADP 58 QB4

Some teams are harder to find buys and sells than others.  Arizona was extremely difficult to find one let alone two that I am selling based on ADP.  The first is Kyler Murray.  Kyler had a very productive rookie season a year ago.  349/542, 3722 yards, with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.  This all added up to 297.3 points and a QB8 fantasy finish .

Entering 2020 with a year under his belt and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, Kyler will take a step.  Will he step in to the top 5, I am not so sure.  I currently have Kyler at 6 behind Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson.  At 58th overall for Kyler vs. Watson at 64, ill pass on Kyler and wait on QB until later in the draft.

DeAndre Hopkins – Overall ADP 9 WR3

Explaining why Kyler is a sell was difficult, but when comparing it to Nuk, in hindsight it was rather easy.  DeAndre Hopkins is a WR that I love and want on my fantasy rosters.  He is a sell for me however at WR3 and pick 9.  If I am picking 9th overall, I am praying that a RB like Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook falls to me.  If they don’t and I am picking a WR, then I would prefer Tyreek Hill or Devante Adams over Hopkins in 2020.

Hopkins is QB proof and he is a stud, but he is switching teams without a preseason and very limited offseason connect time with Kyler.  Kyler as good as he is, is a downgrade for Hopkins when compared to Deshaun Watson.  This one hurts my heart but he is a sell at his current ADP.

Take the Flyer

Andy Isabella – Overall ADP 307 WR92

Andy Isabella didn’t have a lot of opportunities in 2019, but the ones he did have he made the best of. Isabella was targeted a whopping 13 times all season a year ago. He turned those targets into 9 catches for 189 yards and a touchdown.

Isabella was a 2nd Round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, and his straight-line speed is unmatched. The arrival of DeAndre Hopkins limit his chances of being fantasy relevant in 2020. That being said, Isabella plays in an offense that wants to go four wide, and he is right in line for the WR4 role in Arizona and certainly worth a flyer.

3. Los Angeles Rams

Buy Sell Take the Flyer
LOS ANGELES, CA – DECEMBER 16: Robert Woods #17 of the Los Angeles Rams runs the ball during the first half of a game agains the Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on December 16, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer – NFC West

Two Players I am buying

Robert Woods – Overall ADP 46 WR18

Fun fact, Robert Woods in his seven year career has beaten his ADP every season. 2020 he will make it eight in a row. In the last two seasons in Los Angeles, Woods has averaged 135 targets, 88 receptions, 1177 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Entering 2020 with Brandin Cooks off to Houston, Woods targets are likely to increase as will his catches and receiving yards. Robert Woods is a top 12 WR, and the only part of his game that he is missing to ensure a spot as a WR1 is touchdowns. In 2019 through 13 weeks, Woods had 64 catches for 835 yards and no touchdowns. He didn’t record a score until his 70th reception of the season. Robert Woods is in for some serious positive TD regression in 2020 and he an absolute buy in the 4th round at WR18

Darrell Henderson – Overall ADP 114 RB44

Darrell Henderson was a very popular pick in 2019 rookie drafts in the dynasty community. He was going to be the guy when Todd Gurley couldn’t play due his arthritic knee. Well Todd Gurley appeared in 15 games and Henderson had a total of 43 touches that resulted in 184 yards.

Gurley is off to Atlanta after being released and the Rams selected Cam Akers in the 2020 NFL draft. Akers projects to be the starter but I would imagine that Henderson and Malcolm Brown as also involved. Henderson remains a talented rushing and receiving back and at pick 114 he is a buy for me.

Two Players I am selling

Cooper Kupp – Overall ADP 39 WR15

Cooper Kupp had a roller-coaster of a 2019 season. He was sitting at WR3 after week 5, and followed that with five finishes outside the top-40 WR in weeks 6-12. In the final five weeks, he was WR10. When all was said and done on 2019, Kupp finished as WR4 averaging 16.9 PPR points a game.

Listing Kupp a sell at WR15 coming off a WR4 finish appears short sighted on the surface. Kupp is a WR that I love, but there is concern in terms of his snaps and usage due to his specific role and the team utilizing more 2-TE sets as they did in the second half of 2019. Kupp has proven to be a consistent red zone threat and target. He’s averaged a TD every 9.3 catches over his 3-year career. I am anticipating Robert Woods to have positive TD regression and Kupp to have regression in his TDs.

Cam Akers – Overall ADP 67 RB29

The Rams’ backfield is crowded with Akers, Henderson and Malcolm Brown, and the Rams reported prior to the NFL draft that they want the team to utilize a committee approach rather than leaning on one workhorse like it did with Todd Gurley.

The word “committee” is a fantasy football player’s worst nightmare when it comes to running backs, because it becomes difficult to gauge the value of the players who are part of that committee. For the Rams, it applies to Akers and Henderson. Akers is likely the back that will separate himself from the pack at some point this season. In dynasty he’s a back to target in redraft at RB29, I am waiting until 2021.

Take the Flyer

Gerald Everett – Overall ADP 248 TE30

Gerald Everett the forgotten TE after Tyler Higbee exploded in the Rams offense to end the 2019 season. That explosion was courteously of a Gerald Everett injury.

Everett was set up to break out coming into his 3rd season. In week five he had 7 catches on 11 targets for 137 yards and had double digit targets in three of his next six games. Then he hurt his knee and Higbee got his shot. Sean McVay hasn’t given up on Everett and if the Rams continue using more 2-TE formations, both Everett and Higbee could have value. His ADP means he won’t get drafted. This is the TE that you could pick up to stream and never drop. Absolutely worth a flyer in 2020.

2. San Francisco 49ers

Buy Sell Take the Flyer
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 27: Tevin Coleman #26 of the San Francisco 49ers runs for a 48-yard touchdown against the Carolina Panthers during the second quarter at Levi’s Stadium on October 27, 2019 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer – NFC West

Two Players I am buying

Tevin Coleman – Overall ADP 100 RB41

Coleman is a tough back to own, mainly because you never feel comfortable starting him. He has the ability to rush for 100 yards and multiple scores and he also has the ability to give you 6 carries for 25 yards.

The Niners dealt Matt Breida to Miami and that move will open up some opportunity for Coleman in 2020. He will remain behind Raheem Mostert on the Niners depth chart, not that the depth chart in SF really means much. All the running backs that are dressed weekly will see work in the Kyle Shanahan offense. Coleman was not good last year. The reality is Shanahan still likes him and that alone gives him top 36 value at the running back position.

Jimmy Garoppolo Overall ADP 159 QB20

Jimmy G seemed to set the bar quite high the way he finished the 2017 season. After being traded to the Niners at the trade deadline, Garoppollo stared five games, won all five and posted 120 completions on 178 attempts for 1560 yards. He added in seven touchdowns and five interceptions. Entering 2018 he was seen as a consensus top 12 quarterback.

After his 2018 season was cut short by a torn ACL in week 3, he completed his 2019 season as QB14 with 260.32 fantasy points and an average of 16.27 points a game. The Niners were the only team in the league to run more rushing plays than passing plays a year ago, and Jimmy was still fantasy relevant. Garoppolo will be a full year removed from his torn ACL in 2020, and will continue to find George Kittle and his WRs on drags and crossing routes maximize their yards after the catch abilities. Jimmy G. is the perfect late round QB and at a value of QB20 a complete steal.

Two Players I am selling

George Kittle – Overall ADP 23 TE2

George Kittle is my favorite TE to own in fantasy football. He is a beast of a player and so enjoyable to watch. This is all about opportunity cost and comparative value. I simply can not spend a second round pick on a TE.

Kittle in 2018 finished with 1377 receiving yards, breaking the TE single-season record in the process. I had him listed as a sell last year as well as I expected him to regress. In 2019 he still topped 1000 yards in 14 games played. George Kittle is a top 2-3 TE barring injury. If you are comfortable using a second round pick on your TE he is you man. I will be drafting elsewhere thus making him a sell at his current ADP.

Raheem Mostert – Overall ADP 66 RB28

Mostert has had quite the career thus far. During his first two years in the league, he was on 5 different teams. It wasn’t until his 4th year in the league that he saw five total carries in a game. In Week 12-17 of 2019 he was the RB8 in fantasy and posted the 2nd most rushing yards of all-time in a playoff game.

This offseason, Mostert has made a name for himself demanding a new contract from the Niners. He is in a great situation, playing for an offensive guru, behind a strong offensive line, on a run-heavy team. The problem is that offensive Guru will limited his touches and spread the workload around between Mostert, Coleman, and Jerick McKinnon. He’s going to put up insane fantasy games and frustratingly bad ones. In the sixth round of my draft I prefer to target a player that I know will be on the field the majority of the snaps

Take the Flyer

Brandon Aiyuk – Overall ADP 170 WR63

It was either Aiyuk or Jalen Hurd (ADP301 WR90) here.  In the end I take the WR that I feel is the better talent. When Deebo Samuel broke his foot the door swung wide open for someone to fill the void in the San Francisco passing game. Enter rookie Brandon Aiyuk.

The rookie from Arizona State has a clear path to becoming the No. 1 wide receiver in the 49ers’ passing game. Besides tight end George Kittle, the top three remaining players in terms of total receptions returning from 2019 are Kendrick Bourne (33), Tevin Coleman (23) and Kyle Juszczyk (20). Considering how highly Shanahan was on drafting Aiyuk, the rookie is going to get ample opportunities as early as Week 1. Aiyuk is totally worth a flyer in round 14.

1. Seattle Seahawks

Start or Sit These Players on Monday Night to Win Week 12 Fantasy
CHARLOTTE, NC – NOVEMBER 25: Tyler Lockett #16 of the Seattle Seahawks celebrates a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers in the third quarter during their game at Bank of America Stadium on November 25, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer – NFC West

Two Players I am buying

Tyler Lockett – Overall ADP 50 WR22

When Doug Baldwin retired a few seasons ago, Tyler Lockett became the number 1 passing option for Russell Wilson in the Seattle offense.  As we enter 2020 on the heals of DK Metcalf’s impressive rookie season there is now some debate as to if he still is. I see Lockett leading the way for the Seahawks for one more season before Metcalf takes the crown.  I like the ability Lockett has to line up all over the field as well as his ability with the football after the catch.  His ADP as WR18 is likely fair value. 

This is a player I am likely paying retail for at this stage of my drafts but he is a player that I have a lot of confidence in. Lockett thru the first ten weeks a year ago prior to injury Locket was WR5, averaging 17.7 PPR points a game, and post injury he was WR52 averaging 9.7 points a game. He isn’t a top five WR and he isn’t a WR52 either.  Healthy Lockett has back end of WR1 top end WR2 value and at WR18 in the back of the 4th round I am going to buy.

Carlos Hyde – Overall ADP 189 RB59

Not all value finds in fantasy football are league winners.  Reality is that Carlos Hyde was brought into a backfield with very little depth.  Chris Carson is coming off a hip injury, Rashaad Penny is gone for the foreseeable future and Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas round out that backfield. Carson going down would surprise very few. 

Seattle loves to run the football and if given the opportunity, Carlos Hyde will blow away RB59 value. Hyde is a great handcuff, and at his ADP you can wait forever to draft him.

Two Players I am selling

Chris Carson – Overall ADP 27 RB14

Chris Carson continues to defy the odds of being a 7th round draft selection. He finished as RB15 in 2018 and upped his game to a RB12 a season ago. Carson added the pass catching to his game in 2019 but he also showed us his newfound fumbling issue. Rashaad Penny looked like he was starting to breakout before he went down with a devastating knee injury. 

Carson fractured his hip in Week 16 but the team has indicated he will be ready for the season. They signed veteran Carlos Hyde and drafted RB Deejay Dallas until the 4th Round. If Carson is in fact ready to go, he will provide a mid round value boost to your RB crew. His hip, and his fumbling combined with the Seahawks bringing in competition concern me. I do like Chris Carson but at RB14 at the start of the third round I am looking elsewhere.

DK Metcalf – Overall ADP 37 WR14

DK Metcalf had himself a very solid rookie season, 900 yards, 7 TDs, and a WR33 finish. The Seahawks wasted no time getting Metcalf on the field in his rookie season. Like most rookies he wasn’t very consistent for fantasy purposes.

Metcalf has the physical tools to become the alpha in the offense but with Russell Wilson spreading the ball around, there will likely be some boom/bust weeks in year two. WR Tyler Lockett is also a big play threat who is still in his prime and there continue to be rumblings that the Seahawks are looking to add another WR. I am a huge DK Metcalf fan, and when all is said and done I believe he will end up the best WR in his 2019 draft class. In 2020, with an ADP of 37 and WR14, I am selling.

Take the Flyer

Will Dissly – Overall ADP 205 TE26

Through 4 games in 2018, Will Dissly was TE14. Through 6 games in 2019 he was TE6. The probelm here is both seasons we ended by injury, and the injuries were severe.

Dissly was making a comeback from a patellar tendon tear in 2019 devastating knee injury, when he suffered another major injury and tore his achilles. It’s quite unlikely that Dissly will be able to comeback like he did a year ago, but we also shouldn’t count him out. The reality is he’s really up against it. Call me crazy, but I am willing to take the flyer here.

Thank you for reading 2020 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC West

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