During this 8-part divisional series, I utilize the ADP from the RedZone 96 league startup drafts to determine 2 guys, I am buying, 2 I’m selling, and my flyer off each team.  Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP.

Part 6: NFC North

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – NOVEMBER 19: Adam Thielen #19 of the Minnesota Vikings carries the ball against the Los Angeles Rams during the game on November 19, 2017 at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

Minnesota Vikings

Two players, I am buying;

Kyle Rudolph – Overall ADP 105 TE 11

Kyle Rudolph is one of the Vikings main RedZone targets.  As a result, I like his value heading into 2018 with his new QB.  I do feel that the Vikings passing game takes a backseat to the run game this season, but I feel that Kyle Rudolph will succeed catching passes from his new QB.  I like Rudolph to be a top 10 TE and at this ADP value, I will be buying. 

Latavius Murray – Overall ADP 206 RB 67

Latavius Murray started the season off slow in 2017.  Coming back from offseason ankle surgery and finding himself behind the talented rookie Dalvin Cook.  Murray looked to be heading for a lost season.  After a week 4 injury to Cook, Murray once again became relevant in the Vikings offense playing alongside the departed Jerick McKinnon.  Heading into 2018 it appears that Cook is healthy and will once again be the main ball carrier for the Vikings.  I do feel that Murray will be involved more than anticipated and will be part of the offense that grinds out the clock in the second half of games.  At pick 206 in the 17th round, Murray provides good value that I will buy.

Two players, I am Selling;

Kirk Cousins – Overall ADP 113 QB 10

Kirk Cousins begins his time in Minnesota this season.  He is an upgrade to the Vikings at QB, and the Vikings as an offense are an upgrade for Kirk Cousins.  Cousins finished at the number 6 QB in fantasy scoring in 2017, playing behind a depleted offensive line and at times running for his life.  I feel that Kirk Cousins is going to be an excellent quarterback in Minnesota.  I also feel that he is a member of a much better team and a team that won’t need him to or want him to do all he did in Washington.  The redskins often trailed in games and Cousins was forced to throw.  In Minnesota, he will find himself leading most games.  The Vikings have a solid run game and will be a ball control offense.  The Vikings also have a top-level defense.  Cousins will be really good this year, but he will be a much better NFL QB than a fantasy QB.  I see him finishing outside the top 10 and as a result, I will sell. 

Adam Thielen – Overall ADP 34 WR 18

For really no other reason than what I have already stated, I think Adam Thielen is due for some negative regression this season.  Simply I do not see the Vikings offense as an offense that can support two top 20 WR and a Top 10 TE.  Stefon Diggs will be the Vikings WR1 and Adam Thielen will slide outside the top 30 WR this year.  As a result, I will be selling at this value.

Take the Flyer;

Kendall Wright – Overall ADP 308 WR 132

The veteran Wright may very well find himself in the WR3 role in this talented offense.  If Lequon Treadwell continues to struggle then Wright likely gets his shot.  Based on that possibility alone and the value of Kendall Wright in the 25th round, I would take that flyer.

DETROIT, MI – DECEMBER 31: Marvin Jones #11 of the Detroit Lions looks to the sidelines during the third quarter of the game against the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field on December 31, 2017 in Detroit, Michigan. Detroit defeated Green Bay 35-11. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

Detroit Lions

Two players, I am buying;

Kenny Golladay – Overall ADP 110 WR 50

Slowed by injury in his rookie season, Golladay was limited to just 28 catches and 477 yards in 11 games.  His most productive game was week 1 where he put up 4/69/2.  Golladay offers solid value at this position in the draft. I feel that Golladay can complete for WR2 in this offense.  I feel very comfortable buying Kenny Golladay at a WR4 value.

LeGarrette Blount – Overall ADP 243 RB 80

All Blount appears to do is score touchdowns and win the Super Bowl. I’m pretty confident that one of those remains and the other one does not.  Sorry Lions fans no Championship for you this season. Detroit should roll out an RB by committee approach this season.  Blount along with Theo Riddick and rookie Kerryon Johnson will combine to try and give the Lions a decent running attack for the first time in recent memory.  Blount will get his touches and more importantly, he will get his goal line touches.  Blount returns good value in the 20th round being drafted as an RB6.

Two players, I am selling;

Marvin Jones – Overall ADP 61 WR 26

Marvin Jones had a very productive season in 2017.  He finished as WR5 in PPR scoring with a line of 61/1101/9.  When comparing the games Jones played with and without Kenny Golladay, the numbers become very interesting. In the 5 games without Golladay in the lineup, Jones posted 29/427/2, and the 11 games they shared the field Jones posted 32/624/7.  Jones’ average without Golladay was 5.8/85.4/.4, with Golladay his average was 2.9/61.2/.6.  Kenny Golladay if healthy dramatically affects Marvin Jones Jr.’s production.  At a value of WR26, I would sell Jones based on the fact I feel Golladay plays and improves, and that the Lions will try to run to more this year.

Theo Riddick – Overall ADP 153 RB 50

Theo Riddick continues to have value on the Lions roster due to his pass catching ability out of the backfield.  Riddick has averaged 62 receptions and 504 yards the last 3 seasons in Detroit. In those 3 seasons, the Lions finished 32nd, 30th, and 32nd in total rushing yards.  The addition of Kerryon Johnson and an upgraded offensive line would lead me to believe that the Lions will be a better running team (hard to be worse) and that Riddick will see fewer targets in the passing game.  I like Theo Riddick but at this value, I will be selling. 

Take the Flyer;

Luke Wilson – Overall ADP 273 TE 36

Eric Ebron is gone and there is not a lot of competition at TE for the former Seahawk.  This will be Wilson’s first crack at being a TE1 on his team.  I would look for Wilson to improve on his career average of 1 catch, 15 yards, .15 TD, game over the course of his 72-game career.  Luke Wilson won’t blow your doors off but at this value, he might just be the bye week guy you have been looking for. 

DETROIT, MI – DECEMBER 29: Jamaal Williams #30 of the Green Bay Packers runs for yardage against the Detroit Lions during the first half at Little Caesars Arena on December 29, 2017 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Green Bay Packers

Two players, I am buying;

Geronimo Allison – Overall ADP 226 WR 95

Anytime you can get the WR3 in the Aaron Rodgers led Green Bay Packers offense in the 18th round I suggest you buy that. Allison has shown he can contribute in the limited opportunities he’s received over the past few seasons.  Now that it appears the number 3 job is his to lose I see him taking a significant step forward.  At this value, I would definitely be buying.

Jamaal Williams – Overall ADP 96 RB 39

On the surface, I am not sure what piece of the Packers backfield I want?  Aaron Jones (82), Jamaal Williams (96) and Ty Montgomery (125) are all separated by 43 spots in ADP.  The best value of the three is the one in the middle.  Williams looked to me to be a better all-around back in his opportunities last season.  All three will get work and at an aRB3 value in the 8th round, I’ll buy and take my chances with Williams.

Two players, I am selling;

Ty Montgomery – Overall ADP 125 RB 43

My ongoing concerns with Monty and his healthy lead me to sell him at this value.  Diagnosed with the sickle cell trait the reality for Montgomery is, it’s harder to stay healthy and takes him longer to recover than others.  Montgomery is a talented player but his size and style are not suited to be a ball carrier. I would prefer to wait for a few rounds minimum before selecting Montgomery.  At this value, I will sell.

Jimmy Graham – Overall ADP 101 TE 9

I am struggling to decide if  Jimmy Graham’s down year was a product of his declining talent or due to the mismanagement of the Seattle Seahawks.  In conclusion, I would say both.  Graham looked terrible at times last season and even in a great opportunity in Green Bay, I’m not sure I am interested.  Coming off the board at TE 9 is too high for this 31-year-old TE.  If he is going to do anything this year, it will be in the RedZone.  I’d look to sell.

Take the Flyer;

J’Mon Moore – Overall ADP 216 WR 90

 Of the three WR the Packers selected in the 2018 NFL Draft, Equanimeous St. Brown (remind me never to type his name aging), is likely the best talent.  J’Mon Moore, however, is the best value.  Moore was selected 86 picks after ESB.  If I am investing in a flyer in the Packers offense and can get a similar talent 7 rounds later then sign me up.  ESB drafted at 130 (WR 60) is ridiculous in my opinion.  I am more than comfortable (pardon the pun) with J’Mon at this stage of the draft as my flyer.

LAKE FOREST, IL – JUNE 05: Chicago Bears wide receiver Anthony Miller (17) participates during the Bears Minicamp on June 5, 2018 at Halas Hall, in Lake Forest, IL. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Chicago Bears

Two players, I am buying;

Mitchell Trubisky – Overall ADP 157 QB 20

Second-year QB Mitchell Trubisky will be a top 10 fantasy QB.  I am not betting on it being this season but it will happen.  He is a strong arm talented QB with actual NFL talent to throw to in 2018.  Trubisky along with the other members of the Bears offense is only going to get better.  At QB 20 he is an easy bye in the 13th round.

Anthony Miller – Overall ADP 108 WR 49

The Bears traded up in the draft to select Anthony Miller Miller out of Memphis with the 51st pick.  Miller put up the ridiculous totals of 191 catches, 2896 yards, 32 touchdowns in his final two seasons with the Tigers.  Miller is earmarked to take over in the slot for the Bears in his rookie season.  This kid is going to be special and at this value, I confidently buy.

Two players, I am selling;

Jordan Howard – Overall ADP 33 RB 15

Nearly a part of an offseason trade with Miami, Jordan Howard appears to have a declining value in the Matt Nagy offensive structure.  Nagy has come out and announced Howard as a situational runner.  I am not sure what situation that is, but at an RB15 value, I would prefer not to find out.  I’m selling.

Kevin White – Overall ADP 229 WR 96

If Kevin White was drafted another 40-50 spots later in this draft perhaps I could list him as a flyer.  At this spot in the draft with his injury history, I would prefer to pass.  I may be selling White short but until he can show me he can stay on the field I’m going to be selling.

Take the Flyer; 

Taylor Gabriel – Overall ADP 260 WR 113

Gabriel has spent the past few seasons in Atlanta and has at times utilized his speed to be effective.  Now in Chicago, coach Matt Nagy has a plan to utilize that speed.  Gabriel is expected to fill the big-play, deep-threat role in coach Matt Nagy’s offense.  This is the perfect spot to take a shot on Gabriel. Low investment with potential upside.

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