Recency Bias is a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones. When it comes to investing, recency bias often manifests in terms of direction or momentum. This bias convinces us that a rising player will continue to appreciate, or that a declining player will continue to depreciate. This is a natural occurrence that happens to all of us, and when we take a step back and look at the bigger picture, we may be able to utilize this understanding to our benefit and buy low on players that should be worth more.
In this three part series I will list 24 players that I would recommend buying low prior to the start of the 2021 NFL Season.
ADP data courtesy of Dynasty League Football.
24. Saquon Barkley
August SF ADP: 11th overall
My SF Rank: 5th overall
Saquon Barkley went down during week two last season leaving fantasy owners scrambling to find viable replacements in their lineups. Although the Giants coaching staff have mentioned that they will be “easing” Barkley back into action this season, once week 3 rolls around I am fully expecting Barkley to return to his bell-cow workload. Saquon is a league-winning type of back and this may be your last chance to buy low.
What I would pay: Ezekiel Elliot or Derrick Henry + Future 1st
23. Michael Gallup
What I would pay: Mike Williams and a future 2nd or 3rd.
August SF ADP: 113th Overall
My SF Ranking: 96th Overall
Michael Gallup’s value has taken a hit because of the competition for targets in the Dallas offense. But, Gallup was on the field for 87% of the Cowboys snaps in 2020. 2021 is looking to be another tough year defensively for Dallas which should lead to another pass-heavy season for their offense. If something were to happen to Lamb or Cooper, Gallup may find himself as a WR2 in fantasy this season. Let’s also not forget that Gallup is only 25 years old and may find a new home as an alpha WR in the years to come. He can be a flex play this season with future upside making Gallup a great buy low.
22. Brevin Jordan
August SF ADP: 263rd Overall
My SF Ranking: 155th Overall
This buy isn’t as time-sensitive as some of the other players on this list but, this is a player whose skillset I think will translate well in the NFL. Brevin Jordan is a smooth route runner that gets in and out of his breaks well. He displayed good hands and the ability to find holes up the seam consistently in his college. It may be a while before we get to see what Jordan can bring to the NFL but, his acquisition cost is basically free right now making him the perfect buy low candidate.
What I would pay: N’keal Harry, Jakobi Meyers, or C.J. Uzomah
21. Ceedee Lamb
August SF ADP: 35th overall
My SF Ranking: 18th overall
I think we all saw enough from Lamb last season for us to believe in the long term asset that he will be. However, I still feel that his ADP is not high enough for the talent he brings to your dynasty roster. With Dak back under center in 2021, there is a scenario where Lamb finishes the season as the overall WR1. Maybe that is a “hot take” but given his talent level and the high volume passing offense he is in, it is certainly in the range of outcomes for this season.
What I would pay: Davante Adams or Calvin Ridley
20. Mike Gesicki
August SF ADP: 133rd overall
My SF Ranking: 111th overall
Mike Gesicki has always had the physical traits to dominate in the NFL. His size and speed combination is hard to find. Unfortunately for him, he has been on some poor Miami offenses with very few weapons around him. With the addition of Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle, opposing defenses will have to focus more on the other pass-catchers. This should translate to more open looks for Gesicki. In his fourth NFL season, I am expecting Gesicki to take a sizeable step forward.
What I would pay: Tyler Higbee or Logan Thomas
19. Kyle Pitts
August SF ADP: 41st overall
My SF Ranking: 31st overall
It is probably going to be difficult to acquire Kyle Pitts from the owner who drafted him in the last few months. However, it is worth throwing some offers out there. Once this guy hits the field and showcases his skillset against the best defensive talent in the world, he will be untouchable in dynasty formats. Don’t wait for a “year one rookie TE discount”.
What I would pay: Deandre Hopkins, Joe Mixon, or Ja’marr Chase and a future 2nd
18. Jordan Love
August SF ADP: 135th Overall
My SF ADP: 117th Overall
I think the majority of the fantasy industry would be surprised if Aaron Rodgers was the starting QB in Green Bay for 2022. Tom Brady and the Bucs winning the Super Bowl in 2020 likely made Rodgers returning to Green Bay even more unlikely. I’m simply buying Jordan Love due to his draft capital in 2020. Jordan Love will likely get his opportunity to start in Green Bay as early as 2022 and at this ADP, I feel like Love is a solid buy.
Learning from a veteran QB can be a difficult task for a young QB. But when it comes to the Green Bay Packers, we have a track record for grooming a young quarterback before handing over the keys to the castle.
What I would pay: Jared Goff, Ronald Jones, or Henry Ruggs
17. Antonio Gibson
August SF ADP: 33rd overall
My SF Ranking: 16th overall
Antonio Gibson performed very well in his rookie campaign with the Washington Football Team. Gibson was being drafted in the mid to late 2nd round of dynasty drafts last year and any owner who selected him got an incredible return for that choice. Gibson finished as the RB12 in PPR scoring last season and I am expecting his carries and targets to increase in year two. With an ADP in the late 3rd of Superflex startup drafts, Gibson will not be cheap. But if his workload increases this season, his acquisition cost now will feel like a buy low.
What I would pay: Ezekiel Elliot, Deandre Swift, Jalen Hurts
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