Buy Low Players 9-16
Recency Bias is a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones. When it comes to investing, recency bias often manifests in terms of direction or momentum. This bias convinces us that a rising player will continue to appreciate, or that a declining player will continue to depreciate. This is a natural occurrence that happens to all of us, and when we take a step back and look at the bigger picture, we may be able to utilize this understanding to our benefit and buy low on players that should be worth more.
In this three part series I will list 24 players that I would recommend buying low prior to the start of the 2021 NFL Season.
ADP data courtesy of Dynasty League Football.
16. Cam Akers
August SF ADP: 125th overall
My SF Rank: 77th overall
This buy may not be quite as time-sensitive as some of the other recommendations on this list given the season-long injury that Aker’s suffered in the preseason. However, before going down, Akers was a top 20 dynasty asset. There is not a good track record with running backs returning from torn Achilles, but at the price you can acquire Akers, I believe the risk is worth it. If your team is in a rebuild I love moving some aging assets to a contender who lost Akers for the season.
What I would pay: Brandin Cooks, Melvin Gordon, Will Fuller, or Leonard Fournette
15. Kenneth Gainwell
August SF ADP: 188th Overall
My SF Ranking: 108th Overall
Kenneth Gainwell was my number four rookie running back throughout the predraft process this season. A lot of people across the industry seemed to agree with that as well. Then after seeing Gainwell not hear his name called in the NFL Draft until round 5, too many dynasty owners dropped Gainwell down their draft boards. All reports on him in training camp and preseason were glowing. I expect Gainwell to have a sizeable role in this offense right away. Buy him up now before NFL fans see him performing well on Sundays.
What I would pay: Kenyan Drake, Russell Gage, Jonnu Smith, Rashod Bateman, or Henry Ruggs
14. T.J. Hockenson
August SF ADP: 75th Overall
My SF Ranking: 62nd Overall
T.J. Hockenson is likely to be the number 1 option in the Lions’ passing game this season. Given the high-end volume that Hockenson will see, paired with his age and skillset, a bump in his value is easy to foresee. I love going out and acquiring Hockenson for your contending team before kick-off this Sunday.
What I would pay: James Robinson, Aaron Jones, Mark Andrews, or Josh Jacobs
13. Robert “Bobby” Woods
August SF ADP: 82nd overall
My SF Ranking: 58th overall
I defy you to tell me you don’t love Bobby Woods? After a slow start to his career in Buffalo, Woods has emerged as such a reliable wide receiver for your team since arriving in Los Angeles. Woods is 29 years old, but he still should provide solid value for you over the next three seasons. I love to have a high floor wide receiver in my lineup each week, and I am buying up Bobby Woods’ shares right now because of it.
What I would pay: Michael Thomas, Courtland Sutton, Josh Jacobs, or James Robinson
12. Harrison Bryant
August SF ADP: 275th overall
My SF Ranking: 191st overall
Harrison Bryant performed well last season when he was given the opportunity. Bryant is an inexpensive dynasty stash that could have an immediate value bump if something happens to Austin Hooper. I expect Bryant to see some playing time again this year as well. If Bryant continues to perform when given the opportunity, it’s possible he ends up as a team’s TE1 in the next couple of years. I love Bryant as a future tight end stash on the end of your bench.
What I would pay: Hayden Hurst, Jimmy Graham, N’keal Harry, or A.J. Green
11. Jerry Jeudy
August SF ADP: 79th overall
My SF Ranking: 56th overall
Jerry Jeudy’s stock improved for me significantly the moment that Denver acquired Teddy Bridgewater. I have never believed in Drew Lock, and Jeudy is the perfect wide receiver for a QB like Teddy. Jeudy excels at creating separation and should lead this Broncos team in targets this season. Before Jeudy starts getting peppered with high-end volume in Week 1, make an offer for him.
What I would pay: Michael Thomas, Courtland Sutton, Josh Jacobs, or Diontae Johnson
10. Michael Pittman Jr.
August SF ADP: 121st Overall
My SF ADP: 81st Overall
When watching Michael Pittman Jr. on a football field, it is easy to be amazed by his frame. Pittman is 6’4″ and 225 lbs, giving him the prototypical alpha wide receiver build. T.Y. Hilton will likely miss a few games early in the season due to injury, providing Pittman with an opportunity to increase his target share from his rookie campaign. I believe Pittman is the most talented pass-catcher on the Colts’ offense and that should translate to him getting a consistent number of targets every week. Pittman has been one of my favorite dynasty buys all off-season and the window to cash in at a discounted rate will be closing any day.
What I would pay: Curtis Samuel, Tyler Boyd, or D.J. Chark
9. Irv Smith Jr.
August SF ADP: 134th overall
My SF Ranking: 84th overall
Irv Smith Jr. suffered a meniscus injury in the preseason causing him to have knee surgery prior to the season starting. Most reports are saying that Smith will miss the entire 2021 NFL season, thus leaving dynasty owners concerned about his future value. I am using this as an opportunity to buy up shares of Irv. Smith just turned 23 years old so he is still a young dynasty asset at the tight end position. Given the talent that Irv has showcased at Alabama and with the Vikings, I feel confident adding him to my teams despite the recent injury.
What I would pay: Tyler Higbee, Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, or Mike Williams
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