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Alshon Jeffery 2020 Dynasty Outlook

Alshon Jeffery
NASHVILLE, TN – SEPTEMBER 30: Alshon Jeffery #17 of the Philadelphia Eagles plays against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on September 30, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)

Alshon Jeffery spent 3 years as a South Carolina Gamecock from 2009 to 2011. His sophomore year, he put college football on notice posting 1,517 yards on 88 receptions adding 9 touchdowns. He fell back down to earth his Junior year with numbers practically cut in half: 762 yards on 49 receptions adding a strong 8 touchdowns. Injuries were not much of a factor at all in college. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the same for the pros.

Alshon Jeffery was selected 45th overall in the second round of the 2012 NFL Draft by the Chicago Bears. During his time in Chicago, he only had 2 healthy seasons in 5 years. Both seasons he was healthy, he ranked in the top 10 of fantasy WRs. Unfortunately, his career has been riddled with injuries.

After 5 seasons with the Bears, he decided to sign with the Eagles on a 1-year $14 million deal for the 2017 season. Jeffery had another 16 game season as a top WR, but this time he was WR20. Through the past two years, he has missed 9 games. He has been a frustrating fantasy player throughout the years because when he plays, he puts up impressive numbers. It just seems that he’s made of glass most of the time.

In the 2017-2018 season, Alshon Jeffery was a big reason for the success of the Eagles and their Super Bowl victory season. He tallied 789 yards with 9 touchdowns in the regular season but had his greatest impact in the post season. Though his numbers aren’t mind-blowing, his circus catches were. Putting up 219 yards and 3 touchdowns in the 3 post season games. His most memorable moment was his 34 yard touchdown in the back of the endzone from Nick Foles. The outstretched catch, over Patriot’s Eric Rowe, was the first touchdown of the game.

Alshon Jeffery
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – JANUARY 13: Vonn Bell #24 of the New Orleans Saints breaks up a pass against Alshon Jeffery #17 of the Philadelphia Eagles during the NFC Divisional Playoff at the Mercedes Benz Superdome on January 13, 2019 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

Alshon Jeffery Dynasty Outlook – Beyond 2020

In 2019, he played 10 games, but really only 8 because two of those games he left almost immediately with injury. Out of those 8 games, 6 were double digit fantasy point games. 3 of the 6 were over 22 points. In those 8 games, he averaged 15.3 points a game which is respectable. He was clearly Philly’s WR1 as everyone around them had gotten injured.

Starting in 2020, I expect Alshon to start to drop off the fantasy grid during the next few years. The average drop off age for WRs is 31-33 years old, but I think injury may speed up the drop-off age for Jeffery. He is already 30 years old. He definitely has the ability to be a starter on your lineup, but nothing more than a flex starter.

With the return of DeSean Jackson and addition of Jalen Reagor in the draft, I see Alshon’s numbers taking a hit. Carson Wentz has a clear favorite to throw to–Tight Ends–but the remaining shares partially go to Sanders and Scott out of the backfield as well. This leaves all three to battle for the remaining targets. If Alshon starts to regress as I expect, he will still hold value in your league but never the value he once had.

Value

After missing practically half the season in 2019, Alshon Jeffery found himself at WR59 in both PPR and Standard fantasy football formats. I know people will have the tendency to see him as the top receiver he was, but those days are most likely over (us Eagles fans hope not though!)

For the 2020 season, his ADP is #106 overall and #57 among WRs in PPR formats and #53 in Standard leagues. If you’re looking to buy or sell Alshon, his value is low. His value is comparable to a late 2nd round pick or early 3rd rounder, Ian Thomas or Damien Harris in 1 QB leagues. In SuperFlex leagues his draft picks are the same but the comparable players are Preston Williams, Robby Anderson, Alexander Mattison, Tevin Coleman or even James White. The biggest value comparison that sticks out to me is Preston Williams. If I owned Alshon, I would look to swap those two players as quick as I could.

No matter how you value Alshon Jeffery, everything depends on how healthy he’s going to be going forward. Unfortunately, he hasn’t given us much to hope for.

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