In our 2021 divisional previews, we are going to take a look at all the players in the division and based on their current standard redraft ADP over at our friends at Fantasy Pros, help you see who’s risky and who’s worth the risk! As always if you have questions you can find us over on Twitter, Facebook or our growing Discord community!
2021 Divisional Preview: Buffalo Bills
The 2020 season was a coming out party for the Buffalo Bills. They finished the season atop the AFC East with a 13-3 record. The Bills became the first team other than the New England Patriots to win the AFC East in eleven seasons, and the divisional title was their first since 1995.
The Bills will be led once again by QB Josh Allen who after breaking out last season carries and ADP of 25th overall and he is the overall QB2. Allen proved he could be an elite QB last season finishing with career highs in attempts (572), completions (396), passing yards (4,544), touchdowns (37), and completion percentage (69.2%). He accomplished all of this while maintaining hiss rushing upside (102 carries, 421 yards with 8 touchdowns).
Allen should yet again be a top 2-3 fantasy QB in 2021. He is coming off the board at the start of the third round, much earlier than I would prefer to take my QB, but I certainly understand those that value him in this range.
The Bills offer Allen and Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll plenty of weapons to work with. The strength of the team is at WR with Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis and newly signed Emmanuel Sanders. Diggs comes into the season with an ADP of WR3, and who could blame anyone for that ranking when Diggs was targeted 166 times and turned that into 1,500+ yards and 8 touchdowns. Behind Diggs, everyone’s at WR53 and lower, and it’s best to look at them there because we don’t fully know what Sanders will do to the target shares of the rest of the wideouts.
Buffalo produced 1,723 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns last season; sadly that was split between Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, Josh Allen and a few others. You can make the case that either back breaks out this season, or that neither do, but it’s a wait and see game here. Moss is currently RB38 and Singletary is right behind him at RB40. Both should outperform those spots come year’s end.
At tight end, there’s not much to see here because they only targeted their two top tight ends 60 times, so until we see more volume you have to look elsewhere for fantasy-relevant tight end play. Dawson Knox has competition to start with free agent signee from Seattle, Jacob Hollister, but this group as a whole is very underwhelming from the pass-catching side of things.
2021 Divisional Preview: Miami Dolphins
The off-season’s been a roller coaster for second year QB Tua Tagovailoa, and I don’t blame anyone for having him at the ADP of QB22 currently, as we need to see more this year from the talented quarterback. I know what you’re saying, he looked like a rookie last year, but in the end he still was fairly efficient with the ball (64% completion percentage), led the team to a 6-3 record, and added some fantasy production on the ground. In the end, if you take him as your QB2, I think you’ll be more than happy with the return because with his cast of characters around him, he could push for low-end QB1 play by season’s end.
I’m not super excited about this running back room, as I think the backfield will see a similar split and potentially worse with the additions of free agent Malcolm Brown and 7th rounder Gerrid Doaks. Currently Myles Gaskin is sitting at RB23 and Salvon Ahmed is sitting at RB67. If you told me those two wound up finishing worse I wouldn’t be surprised. Now when it comes to your draft, I think you have to take Gaskin as the top back in this offense, but at the same time you’ll most certainly want to have one of the others as depth in case the carries get split significantly.
DeVante Parker led the team in targets last year, and probably for the last time with the additions of Will Fuller and 1st rounder Jaylen Waddle. Currently Fuller has the highest ADP at WR39, with Waddle at WR42 and Parker at WR45, and I’m OK with that. I think Waddle could end the year as their top wideout with his big play ability, superb route-running skill, and connection to Tua. Behind them, Preston Williams isn’t really much more than dynasty team depth, and on the redraft side he’ll certainly be on the waiver wire.
Mike Gesicki returns as their TE1, with rookie Hunter Long waiting in the wings for his chance. The other tight ends on the team are more deployed as blockers, with Gesicki being the top targeted tight end in 2021. With 703 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2020, Gesicki is a fairly safe back-end TE1 in fantasy, and with an ADP of TE12 overall, Fantasy Pros agrees.
2021 Divisional Preview: New England Patriots
The 2021 Patriots will be an extremely interesting team to watch, and by years end the tight ends could be their top two pass catchers. The more interesting thing is can Cam Newton hold off Mac Jones to be the man throwing them the ball? If you look at the ADP, that appears to be so, but not comfortably, as Cam is QB27 with Jones behind him at QB35. It would appear this team will lean heavily on the run again to set up the pass, so either way back-end QB2 is about all the value you can expect from New England this year.
At running back, they continue to drive fantasy owners mad with their inability to have a true lead back. In 2020, Damien Harris and Cam Newton each had 137 carries, and the talented Sony Michel got 79. You really can’t trust this team fantasy-wise in any offensive position in 2021, so if you target New England players, it’s best to do so as depth, although there is plenty of talent if they decide to get the running backs more carries.
At wideout, this depth chart is filled with question marks and concerns. There’s no true WR1 on the team, so Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and the potentially trade-able N’Keal Harry all have a chance. If you look at the ADP, Agholor comes in as the top option at WR67…yep 67! This situation will be one you have to keep a close eye on. Don’t waste an early pick hoping you’re right–let someone else take the chance.
Like I said earlier, Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry are probably option 1 & 2 in this offense when it comes to the passing game. Most see these two being brought in to let them run the offense similar to when they had Gronk and Hernandez, or it could be to give them two big targets for Cam, or security options for Mac Jones. Your guess is as good as anyone else’s. In the end, you can take them as back end TE1s and probably use them as near-weekly starters this year.
2021 Divisional Preview: New York Jets
Another team in transition, the Jets will be fun to watch because they have some really intriguing storylines, and some of them are even fantasy relevant! Zach Wilson comes in as the true #1 QB, and there’s no competition in my mind for that job against him. What we don’t know is exactly what the offensive plan is to ease Wilson into his role, but we do know Mike LaFleur comes from a good lineage of offensive minds, so taking Wilson as your QB2 is not a big deal.
At running back, Lamical Perine, Tevin Coleman and 4th round rookie Michael Carter all look to take the lead role in this offense. Whomever comes out as the top two appear to have fantasy relevance, as I mentioned they probably will lean on the run to setup the pass in 2021. I am on the side of the ADP, as it has Carter at RB33 and the top option as he has the most talent of any back on this team. Coleman’s at RB56 and Perine’s at RB78, so whomever you choose to target is not a huge risk to lose value over ADP.
At wide receiver, free agent acquisition Corey Davis appears to be set as the WR1 on the team with an ADP of WR51. You can get a nice value return if he can get 80-100 targets this year. Behind him, you have a group of solid options in Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Keelan Cole and rookie Elijah Moore. They all fall from WR58 on, so if you take a chance on them, you’re really looking at them as depth on your team, if anything.
Chris Herndon comes back as the lead tight end, though this is a group that you really can’t trust in 2021 because of injuries and lack of production from any of the options on the team. I will say, whoever takes over as the teams top tight end, if they get a fair amount of production, will outperform the ADP (as no one is ranked currently in ADP).
2021 Divisional Preview: Thanks For Stopping By!
For more great Fantasy Football content, subscribe to our website, YouTube Channel and follow us on Twitter. Be sure to head on over to rookiedraftguide.com for all our rookie player reviews for both 2021 Offensive and Defensive prospect breakdowns. Become a VIP for only $6 to view all eight category rankings, and view the strengths and weaknesses our team has identified for each player. Engage with 2,100+ passionate dynasty managers and let the RotoHeat content team know what topics YOU want to hear about by visiting our ROTOHEAT – Dynasty Fantasy Football Community.