We managed to bounce back fairly well last week after a disappointing Week 10.
Hits; Jimmy Garoppolo (Start), Carson Wentz (Sit), Miles sanders (Sit), Kenyan Drake (Sit), Kendrick Bourne (Sleeper), Jared Cook (Start), Mike Gesicki (Bust), Eric Ebron (Start), Will Lutz (Start), Brett Maher (Start), Oakland Raiders (Start), New York Jets DST (Start)
Misses; Kyle Allen (Start), Josh Jacobs (Start of the Week), Baker Mayfield (Bust), Brian Hill (Sleeper), Odell Beckham (Bust), T.J. Hockenson (Start), Zach Ertz (Sit), Baltimore Ravens (Sit).
We have 4 teams on bye this week, concluding the bye week portion of the NFL schedule, (Yahoo). Teams taking the week off are; Minnesota, Arizona, LA Chargers and Kansas City.
The Quarterback position is hit hard this week with Kyler Murray, (QB5) Kirk Cousins, (QB7), Patrick Mahomes, (QB8), and Phillip Rivers, (QB13) all unavailable.
Other top performers on the sidelines in week 12 include Dalvin Cook (RB2), and Stefon Diggs, (WR14), Christian Kirk, (WR30), Keenan Allen, (WR8), Austin Ekeler (RB3), Melvin Gordon (RB37), Hunter Henry, (TE8), as well as Tyreek Hill, (WR32), and Travis Kelce, (TE1).
In week 12 I dive deep to add more to the hits and less to misses, as we make that final push towards a playoff berth.
1. Start of the Week:
Derrick Henry Tennessee Titans RB7 170.90 PPR Fantasy Points
For years I have been fighting the urge to admit that Derrick Henry is good. Well it’s time to tap out, and admit it. Henry enters week 12 as the 7th highest scoring running back this season averaging 17.09 points/game in PPR scoring. What is the most impressive is that he has only caught 13 passes this season. The next lowest of the top 7 RB’s is Nick Chubb with 27 receptions on the season. Basically he is a beast on the ground.
The Titans week 12 opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars are allowing 134.6 rushing yards a game which ranks 29th in the league. There are also 4th worst in fantasy points allowed to the RB position allowing 28.3 points per game. Henry is a slam dunk start here.
Sam Darnold New York Jets QB25 108.20 Fantasy Points
The Jets and Sam Darnold welcome the Oakland Raiders this Sunday. Darnold has been rolling as of late with 26.42 points last week and 21.70 points the week before. Enter a Raider defense that is travelling across the country and is bringing their 27th ranked pass defense along with them (262.2 yards/game). Darnold has a nice thing going with WR Jamison Crowder as well as TE Ryan Griffin.
The Raiders are 6th worst in fantasy points allowed to the QB (22.1), 9th worst versus the WR (38.7), and 5th worst versus the TE (14.7). Sunday is shaping up to be a big day for Sam Darnold and friends.
Baker Mayfield Cleveland Browns QB21 147.46 Fantasy Points
After two straight weeks of labeling Baker Mayfield a bust, he lands in my start spot. Have I changed my opinion on Baker? No, not really but I love the match-up against the Miami Dolphins at home. The Dolphins have been getting shredding by opposing QB’s of late and they are allowing 21.8 fantasy points to the opponent QB this season and 246 passing yards.
The Browns really need to get Odell Beckham Jr. going and this one is the game to do it. It also happens to be a Jarvis Landry revenge game. Baker as a result is the benefactor and an easy start for me here.
Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys QB3 241.14 Fantasy Points
Dak has been lights out this season and has worked his way into the MVP conversation as a result. Prescott has gone over 21 fantasy points in 8 out of his 10 games this season, including his last 4 straight. In his last 3 contests Dak has averaged 26 completions, 366 yards and 3 TD passes.
The reason for the sit this week is the opponent. Dak and the Cowboys travel to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots. The Patriots are allowing a league best 10.2 points per game to the opposing QB. Amari Cooper is banged up to boot. This is a rather easy sit for me.
Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB8 195.32 Fantasy Points
Sitting Jameis Winston versus the Atlanta Falcons on paper doesn’t seem like a smart move. Thankfully they don’t play these games on paper. Winston is an absolute mess and the Falcons seem to have figured themselves out. Winston leads the NFL in interceptions thrown this season with 18. He is throwing a pick every 4.4% of his attempts. In addition he has lost 4 of his 11 fumbles this season.
The question isn’t will Jameis turn the ball over it is how many times will he. Meanwhile the Falcons appear to be good coming out of their bye week. The held Brew Brees to 11.48 fantasy points in week 10, and Kyle Allen may never be the same after his 9.70 point performance last week that included 4 interceptions and 5 sacks. Jameis shouldn’t start for the Buccaneers this week let alone your fantasy team.
Jeff Driskel Detroit Lions QB36 28.00 Fantasy Points
Jeff Driskel should rank high among streamers at quarterback because of his ability to rack up yards with his legs. In addition to three touchdown passes and an interception, Driskel has run for 88 yards and a score on 13 rush attempts. Driskel isn’t Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen on foot, but he’s athletic enough to evade a defender or two for a first down. In Week 10, Driskel threw for 269 yards against the Chicago Bears’ 11th-ranked pass defense and didn’t turn the ball over to the Dallas Cowboys in his last outing.
In the upcoming contest, he’ll face the Redskins, who rank 16th in yards allowed through the air and 22nd in points surrendered. We could see the Lions signal-caller at his best with wideouts Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. on the perimeter.
Mason Rudolph Pittsburgh Steelers QB26 105.84 Fantasy Points
I think the Cincinnati Bengals upset the Pittsburgh Steeler this week. The Steelers are likely without James Conner, Dionte Johnson and Juju Smith-Shuster. The top WR option for Pittsburgh is James Washington. Mason Rudolph looked terrible last week and that was before he was hit over the head with his own helmet. The Bengals are 0-10 for a reason and that reason is they are really bad. I have zero confidence in Rudolph and the Steelers offense here regardless of the strength or lack there of, of their opponent.
3. Running Backs
Kareem Hunt Cleveland Browns RB74 26.20 PPR Fantasy Points
Since coming off suspension in Week 10, Hunt has averaged 13.10 PPR points a game. The Browns are doing a wonderful job getting both Hunt and Nick Chubb on the field together which is keep the opposing defense on their toes. Hunt is averaging 4.2 yards per rush and 6.5 catches a game in his two appearances this season. This week the Browns get the Miami Dolphins who are extremely friendly to the other team’s running backs. They are allowing 27.3 points to the position. Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb are both start worthy in most leagues.
Leonard Fournette Jacksonville Jaguars RB8 169.30 PPR Fantasy Points
I am a rather big LF27 fan, and I am the first to admit that he seems to be fading down the stretch and looks a little worn out. This is another one of those gut feel calls. Fournette saw only 15 touches last week after averaging 26 in his previous six games. Head Coach Doug Marrone came out this week and stated that they need their feature back more involved. Tennessee is a solid defense but they do yield 24.4 points per game to the opposing team’s backs. Add to this that Fournette has touched the ball 229 times this season and has only scored 1 touchdown. He is a prime positive regression candidate in the touchdown department. Start him this week.
Joe Mixon Cincinnati Bengals RB22 114.40 PPR Fantasy Points
Mixon has been rolling in his previous three outings, averaging 17.37 points in those contests. This week he faces the Pittsburgh Steelers in a game in which the box should be stacked all day long. The Bengals are weak at QB and their WR core is banged up. I do not see a lot of daylight for Joe Mixon and I am starting to wonder if there will be much of any scoring at all in this one. Sit Joe Mixon and bet the under!
Ronald Jones RB31 102.50 PPR Fantasy Points
Rojo was named the starting back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by Head Coach Brice Arians prior to the Week 10 matchup with the Arizona Cardinals. In that week 10 matchup he put up 22.60 PPR points on the strength of 29 rushing yards and 11 catches for 77 more. He also lost a fumble and was outgained on the ground by teammate Peyton Barber. In week 11 he made his way into many starting lineups and he rewarded those that started him with 13 rushing yards and 2 catches for 1 additional yard. Yikes. In week 12 Tampa faces the rejuvenated Atlanta Falcons defense. The Falcons since their week 9 bye have held the Saints and the Panthers to a combined total of 129 yards and no touchdowns. Ronald Jones is firmly on my bench this week.
Darius Guice Washington Redskins RB82 20.70 PPR Fantasy Points
Derrius Guice appeared in his second regular-season game and reached the end zone for the first time in the pros on a beauty 45-yard catch and run. Guice will likely continue to share the rushing workload with Adrian Peterson, who logged nine carries last Sunday, but they both can post solid numbers against the Lions’ 23rd ranked run defense. This should be the game that Guice distances himself from AP and the rest of the Redskins RB’s.
Ezekiel Elliott Dallas Cowboys RB5 177.30 PPR Fantasy Points
This one might be bold, but hey I don’t get paid the big bucks for nothing! I have been doing fairly well betting on the Patriots defense this season and that trend will continue here. Zeke is a great running back and he wouldn’t be RB5 on the season if he wasn’t. He just doesn’t seem to have that same jam that he has had in previous seasons and his offensive line is not as dominate as it was in the past either. Perhaps these two go hand in hand. Last week vs. the league’s 23rd ranked run defense, Zeke took 16 carries 45 yards (2.8 YPC). The Patriots meanwhile allow the fewest points to the RB position (13.8), and are the 10th ranked rushing defenses giving up 97.3 yards a game.
4. Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley Atlanta Falcons WR18 139.30 PPR Fantasy Points
Calvin Ridley had the game fantasy his owners were dreaming of last week. Ridley had eight receptions for 143 yards and a touchdown against the Panthers in Week 11. Atlanta has been all over the place this season, but Ridley is likely to have a strong second half when you consider two key factors. The injury of Austin Hooper opens up more targets for the Falcons receivers and when they traded Mohamed Sanu to the Patriots the team made it clear that Ridley is Atlanta’s WR2 behind Julio Jones. Matt Ryan should have a field day against the Buccaneers secondary, and Ridley is likely to be one of the chief beneficiaries.
Terry McLaurin Washington Redskins WR29 121.60 PPR Fantasy Points
Terry McLaurin has been difficult to trust since the Redskins turned to Dwayne Haskins at quarterback. It is hard to understand given the two were teammates at Ohio State. The good news in Week 12 is the Redskin face a Lions defense that is allowing the third-most passing yards in the NFL. McLaurin is a WR3 in Week 12 with an upside for more if he can find the end zone.
John Brown Buffalo Bills WR13 162.10 PPR Fantasy Points
John Brown is coming off a big two-touchdown performance against the Dolphins, but the Bills receiver is due for some regression against the Broncos’ fifth-ranked passing defense, and most notably a matchup with Broncos Chris Harris. This week could be more of a Cole Beasley week as Josh Allen looks to get the ball out quick to slot receivers. As a result, I will avoid Smoky here if I can.
Mohammed Sanu WR29 111.20 PPR Fantasy Points
The Cowboys have quietly been a top 10 ranked defense against the pass. Mohamed Sanu had a disappointing performance in Week 11, and it is hard to have faith in any New England receiver this week outside of Julian Edelman. Add it all up and we sit Mr. Sanu.
Zach Pascal Indianapolis Colts WR61 84.60 PPR Fantasy Points
I am bullish on Pascal. The reason is opportunity. With TY Hilton likely out and Parris Campbell certainly out, the next man up is Zach Pascal. Add to this the loss of RB Marlon Mack and I believe that the Colts will need to lean more on Jacoby Brissett’s arm in this key divisional battle. The Texans allow the 7th most fantasy points to the WR position this season and the stars are aligning in week 12 for Zach Pascal.
Michael Gallup WR23 127.80 PPR Fantasy Points
Michael Gallup also had a breakout performance with nine receptions for 148 yards against the Lions last week. This week, things look a lot less promising against the Patriots. It’s hard to sit a WR who is coming into his own and has posted 11.30, 17.60, and 23.80 PPR points in his last three games. Gallup’s long-term upside is there with the way the Cowboys’ offense is performing, but we can expect a low-scoring affair against the Patriots who allow a league low 25.2 points to the opposing teams WR position.
5. Tight End
Ryan Griffin New York Jets TE15 PPR Fantasy Points
Griffin came through last week in Washington to the tune of 21.90 PPR points. This matchup is pretty darn good, too, Oakland allows the 5th most points to the opposing team’s TE. Griffin and Darnold appear to have some chemistry as Griffin has posted three double digit games in the past four, and four of the last six contests.
Cameron Brate Tampa Bay Buccaneers TE26 59.40 PPR Fantasy Points
It appears that O.J. Howard has gotten himself benched and Cameron Brate is the main benefactor as a result. Brate, who looked great vs. the Saints, has a nice matchup here against Atlanta who is allowing 13 points per game to the TE position. It seems that Cameron Brate has the trust from Jameis Winston as he led all Bucs pass catchers with 14 targets last week.
Greg Olsen Carolina Panthers TE9 100.60 PPR Fantasy Points
The last time I told ya all to sit Greg Olsen he dropped 17.80 PPR points. Well allow me to make it up to all of you and suggest that you sit Olsen once again. As you can tell I have little faith in the Carolina offense and other than Christian McCaffrey I do not see a lot happening in the passing game. The Saints haven’t been great against the opponents TE this season allowing 10.6 points per game, but this is a contest that I see Olsen struggling to be relevant in.
T.J Hockenson Detroit Lions TE18 72.90 PPR Fantasy Points
T.J. was supposed to take advantage of the Dallas Cowboys defense last week. Instead he had 1 catch for 6 yards. The rookie has disappointed too many times since Week 1 to like in this decent spot, and I see this as a game that the wideouts go to work.
Dallas Goedert TE21 73.90 PPR Fantasy Points
The Seahawks have been better against the tight end of late, but they should be busy with Zach Ertz with Philly’s wideouts hurting. As a result I like the residual upside of Goedert here. In addition Carson Wentz likes his big body and soft hands in the red zone.
Vance McDonald Pittsburgh Steeler TE30 49.60 PPR Fantasy Points
There is very little I like for the Steelers this Sunday, and you can add Vance McDonald to that list. The Steelers need him to be better to help out a struggling Mason Rudolph with some key wideouts set to miss the game. Cincinnati is a middle of the road defense against the TE position allowing 12.8 points per game. This should be a game for Vance to dance but I simply do not see it and see him busting instead.
Will Lutz New Orleans Saints K5 97 Fantasy Points
Started Lutz last week and it payed off, we are going back to him again in week 12. Kicking indoors against a team that should surrender a lot of points is a nice recipe for success. Carolina gives up 7.3 fantasy points weekly to kickers, I see Lutz exceeding that and bringing you double digits here.
Matt Prater Detroit Lions K6 91 Fantasy Points
We sat Matt Prater last week and he delivered 3 fantasy points. This week versus Washington we are starting him. Jeff Driskel will move the ball on this accommodating defense, how many TD’s will the Lions score is the question. Prater kicks well in all elements and Fed Ex Field is known for being a kicker friendly facility.
Mason Crosby Green Bay Packers K15 74 Fantasy Points
On the road in Green Bay will be difficult for all the Packers to put up points, Crosby is no different. San Francisco allows on average 4.7 points to the opposing kicker, I don’t even see Crosby reaching that number.
Chris Boswell Pittsburgh Steelers K11 82 Fantasy Points
Chris Boswell is on my sit list this week just because of the shambles that we have in Pittsburgh. Because of so many injuries, their offense is extremely limited at the skill positions, and I don’t see them moving the ball very well let alone scoring points.
Buffalo Bills DST12 77 Fantasy Points
Brandon Allen has played decent since taking over for Joe Flacco, but the Denver offense as a whole is still just 25th in the NFL in total yards per game. An underwhelming receiving corps comprised almost entirely of Courtland Sutton play handicaps the upside of this offense. They will be in tough against the Bills at home in Orchard Park. The Broncos have allowed the ninth-most sacks (32) in the NFL while the Bills pass rush has stepped up recently with 13 sacks across their last three games.
New Orleans Saints DST7 84 Fantasy Points
The Carolina Panthers are falling apart and if last week versus the Atlanta Falcons defense is any indication I am happy to start the defense they face. Kyle Allen started his season 4-0 and threw 7 TD versus 0 interceptions. Since he is 1-3 with 3 TD and 9 picks. Start the Saints with confidence this week.
Carolina Panthers DST6 88 Fantasy Points
Week 10 was a blip on the radar, and a rare game in which the Saints struggle at home. That will not be the case in week 12. The Saints look healthy and lethal. They should put up some points in a blowout home victory.
San Francisco 49ers DST2 138 Fantasy Points
Putting the #2 DST on the sit list might seem extreme, but the reality here is The Green Bay Packers allow only 2.6 fantasy points to the opposing defense. Aaron Rodgers does not get sacked very often and he has thrown a total of 2 interceptions this season. I don’t think the Packers win this game, but they won’t lose it because of their offense’s inability to move the ball and score some points
Best of luck in week 12 everyone. If you are stuck and need some start sit advice prior to Sunday, hit me up on twitter @RotoHeat Sully.