Leverage plays are important to help set yourself apart in large field GPP’s. Whether you are playing the $20 Millionaire, $9 Slant, or the $3 Play-Action, you are going to find yourself battling with 65,000+ lineups to secure that top spot.
Q: What is leverage?
A: Playing lower owned options in the same price tiers or lower owned teammates/opponents of highly owned players.
Q: Why do we need leverage?
A: To differentiate our lineups from the crowd & when our lower owned option smashes value and the higher (chalkier) owned option bombs, we see our lineups shoot up the leader boards.
Q: How do we take advantage of the leverage?
A: When there is a lower owned option that we like, the best way to get leverage on the field is to go “overweight” on the lower owned option and “underweight” on the higher owned option.
This doesn’t mean that we have to completely fade (not playing a specific player in our player pool), but if a player is projected at 20%+, we may only own 5-10% of them throughout our lineups. If a player we like is only projected for 5-10% ownership, we may own them in 20-25% of our lineups.
I am going to list & explain my favorite leverage plays for week 5 of the 2019 NFL DFS season. These plays are specific to DraftKings GPP’s only. This is not something that we want to be forcing in cash lineups.
New England Pass Catchers vs. Washington
The Patriots have one of the highest team totals on the slate at 28.5 yet none of their receivers are projected for more than 7% ownership via RotoGrinders.com. To make things even better, weekly vulture candidate Rex Burkhead has been ruled out.
Julian Edelman ($6,300) has the highest projected ownership and at $300 less than Michael Thomas ($6,600) and $300 more than Larry Fitzgerald ($6,000), finds himself with less than half the ownership of both of those plays. Josh Gordon comes in just below him at $6,100 and carries just half the ownership. Both of these receivers leverage the field and may find themselves stacked in some of my lineups at around 10% total ownership.
Going a bit lower at $5,000, James White is projected to be owned 1/2 as much as guys like Phillip Lindsay & Wayne Gallman and 1/3 of David Montgomery. It is no secret that White factors into the passing game and is always capable of an offensive explosion.
Possibly my favorite leverage play of the week falls with Phillip Dorsett at $4,900 though. He is projected for under 1% ownership with guys around him like Calvin Ridley, Robby Anderson & Will Fuller anywhere from 6x-18x his ownership. When we remove the Antonio Brown game, we see that Dorsett commands a 17% target share (Edelman 23%, Gordon 18%) with a team leading 26% market share of air yards and an aDOT of 12.8. He also has three of the five touchdowns scored by this trio, yet he comes in far cheaper.