Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020

Each and every season, NFL fans look back on the draft and immediately wonder: “Was it a good draft for my team?” At the same time, fantasy managers are busy preparing for their upcoming fantasy drafts and the dynasty managers for their annual rookie drafts. Since joining the RotoHeat team a few years ago, I have been looking into historical data to try and determine hit rates of drafted prospects. Today I take a look at the wide receiver position and their hit rates for those drafted from 2016 through 2020.  Frequently we see people labeling these college prospects as “can’t miss” prospects.  Well, I hate to break to you Heat Seekers, but there is no such thing as a sure thing.

In order to review hit rates, it’s important to define what qualifies as a “hit.”  I define a wide receiver hit as any WR that has delivered a top-12/24/36 season at any point in their career.  A WR that has multiple hit seasons is a Super-Hit, and a WR with multiple top-12 finishes is a Mega-Hit. 

Since the 2016 NFL draft, there have been 157 wide receivers drafted. Of those 157 WRs, 17 were first round selections, 25 in the second, 18 in the third, 22 in the fourth, and a total of 75 selected in rounds 5-7. When we previously looked at the Quarterbacks and the Running Backs, the data indicated that draft capital ruled superior to landing spot and all other conditions. After reviewing the Wide Receiver position, it remains clear, draft capital is undefeated.  

5. Rounds 5-7

Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020
Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020

As most dynasty managers would expect, wide receivers selected in rounds 5-7 don’t frequently deliver fantasy relevant seasons. Of the 75 players drafted in these rounds, 2 wide receivers are responsible for the 6 hit seasons delivered between 2016-2020.  Tyreek Hill, selected in the fifth round in 2016, has delivered a hit season in all 5 of his seasons. He has recorded 3 top-12 seasons, a top-24 season (in his rookie year), and a top-36 season. As a result of his multiple top-12 campaigns, Tyreek Hill has achieved Mega-Hit status. The only other WR to reach hit status out of this motley crew is Rashard Higgins, who finished his 2020 season as WR28.

Sleepers at the WR position in these rounds are extremely rare. Taking a look back to 2010, there were an additional 77 WRs selected between 2010-2015, and only six of them recorded a hit season. Antonio Brown (Mega-Hit) led the way, with his eight hit seasons–six of which were top-12 seasons.

Dating back to 2010, we have seen a total of 152 WRs selected between rounds 5-7, and of those 152, 8 (5.26%), have delivered their fantasy managers a hit season. Drafting a round 5-7 WR and having him deliver you a hit season is not something that happens very often. If it happens to you, consider yourself an extremely fortunate dynasty manager.

4. Round 4

Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020
Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020

Jumping into round 4 and looking at the 22 WRs drafted from 2016-2020, there is one WR (4.5%) here that delivered a hit season, and that is Jacksonville Jaguars’ WR Dede Westbrook.

Westbrook finished the 2018 season as WR33. Westbrook captured the imagination of the dynasty community during the 2019 offseason and was considered a break-out candidate by many. Instead of breaking out, Westbrook simply faded away. He followed 2018 with a WR42 finish in 2019 and a WR245 finish in 2020.

The best result that the other 21 members of “the fourth round club” could manage was a WR54 finish from Antonio Callaway in 2018 and a WR56 finish from Buffalo rookie, Gabriel Davis in 2020.

Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020
Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020

The 34 WRs selected in the fourth round between 2010-2015 fared far better than their 2016-2020 counterparts. There are 6 members of the fantasy hit club with Eric Decker being the most successful with four hit seasons, two of which were top-12 performances earning him Mega-Hit status. In total, dating back to the 2010 NFL draft, there have been 55 wide receivers selected in the 4th round and 7 (12.7%) of them produced a hit season.

3. Round 3

Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020

Similar to when reviewing the history of running back draft classes, we start to see relevance in terms of fantasy assets in round three. There are six (33.3%) third round WRs drafted between 2016-2020 that have provided their fantasy managers with at least one hit season.

Three (17%) of which have a top-12 season on their resume — Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay. All three qualify for Super-Hit status (multiple hit seasons), as does Washington’s Terry McLaurin. In addition, there is optimism for the core of this group moving forward. Round 3, and specifically the top-100 drafted WRs, are where dynasty managers should start targeting their next great fantasy assets.

Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020
Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020

There were 25 receivers selected in round 3 from 2010-2015 and nine of them (36%) have experienced at least one hit season. Four of the 25 (16%) have at least one top-12 season, led by Keenan Allen and his three. Emmanuel Sanders, Mohammed Sanu, John Brown, and Tyler Lockett have achieved Super-Hit status, and T.Y. Hilton, along with Allen, are this group’s Mega-Hits.

In total, these nine wide receivers have combined to bring 32 hit seasons, 7 top-12, 12 top-24, and 13 top-36 campaigns. Dynasty rosters can not be comprised of top-12 wide receivers only, and round 3 WRs should be considered when drafting your rookies. Historically you are looking at adding WR3/4 and flex spot talent here, and a times you’ll find yourself a rock-solid, weekly startable asset.

2. Round 2

Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020
Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020

Looking at round two, we have 25 receivers selected in the second round of the NFL Draft. 13 (52%) of these receivers have given their fantasy managers a hit season, and six (24%) of them have done it on multiple occasions. The gem of these second round drafted wide receivers, when looking at 2016-2020, is New Orleans Saints’ Michael Thomas. Thomas is the lone Mega-Hit WR, finishing as a top-12 WR in 4 straight seasons from 2016-2019. In addition, the future of this round is bright with names like A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, JuJu Smith-Shuster and Chase Claypool.

Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020
Running Back Hit Rates 2016-2020

Looking back to 2010-2015, there were 24 WRs selected in the second round of NFL drafts.  Nine of those (37.5%) 24 wide receivers combined for 38 hit seasons. All nine receivers that delivered a hit season delivered multiples, making them all Super-Hit WRs. 4 of them — Alshon Jeffery, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, and Jarvis Landry, led the way with multiple top-12 finishes, thus becoming Mega-Hit WRs.

Round two is where we start to see season-in and season-out consistency in terms of hit seasons, so acquiring these WRs in your rookie drafts (depending on format) may require your first round selection, and all of these names are certainly worthy of your second round pick.

1. Round 1

Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020
Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020

One would expect round 1 to be chalked full of WR1 talent. Those drafted between 2016-2020, however, for the most part have been dynasty duds instead of studs. There have been 17 WRs selected during the first round of NFL drafts in this timeframe, and we have seen nine of them reach hit status thus far in their careers. A 53% hit rate should not be overlooked, but what is disappointing is the number of top-12 seasons this group has generated.

These 17 WRs have played a total of 44 seasons and have generated only two (4.5%) top-12 results–Calvin Ridley and Justin Jefferson both accomplished the feat a season ago. The number of top-24 seasons is not overwhelming either, as of those 44 seasons played, only 3 (6.8%)–Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore, and Cee Dee Lamb–have a top-24 season. The vast majority of hit seasons from the first round drafted WRs are top-36 finishes.

When comparing this group of WRs to the group of first round running backs selected between 2016-2020, the RB are vastly superior. First round RBs delivered at least one hit season at a rate of 38%, and those were all top-12 finishes. If you include RB2 seasons then the percentage of hit first round running backs swells to 62%.The good news is the 2020 rookie class delivered 3 hit WR performances out of 6, and their futures looks very promising.

Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020
Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020

There was total of 23 WRs selected in the first round from 2010-2015. 17 (73.9%) of these WRs delivered at least one hit season, ands eight (35%) of which achieved at least one top-12 campaign. Some the best WRs in the game today were 1st round selections from 2010-2015 including seven members of the Mega-Hit club — Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, AJ Green, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, and Odell Beckham Jr. In total dating back to 2010, there have been 40 WRs selected in round one. 26 of them (65%) have delivered at least one hit season. Draft capital matters for WRs.

In conclusion, we have 157 wide receivers drafted since the 2016 NFL Entry draft. Those 157 wide receivers have produced a total of 15 top-12 or better finishes, 17 top-24 or better seasons, and 16 top-36 or better seasons.

Those 15 top-12 or better finishes came from 10 of the 157 (6.4%). Two the ten (20%) were first round selections, three of the ten were (30%) were second round selections, and three of the ten (30%) were drafted in round 3. Eight of the ten wide receivers (80%) to deliver their fantasy managers a top-12 WR season were selected in the top three rounds of the NFL draft.

The bottom line is that when drafting wide receivers this offseason, you should be targeting the WRs selected in the first three rounds to maximize the return on your investment.

2016-2020 Wide Receiver Hit Rates
2016-2020 Wide Receiver Hit Rates. Rankings courtesy of DFL

It is difficult at this point of the offseason to predict where the top ranked rookie wide receivers will be drafted. Using the historical data dating back to 2010, we know that 339 wide receivers were selected. In addition, we know that there have been 34 (10.02%) WRs to finish with a top-12 season at least once in their career. So, of the top 24 ranked WRs in the 2021 draft class, we would expect as of today that two of them will have at least one top-24 season.

There will be useful WR2 and WR3 seasons from these WRs as well, as this appears to be another deep rookie class. Rookies are risky, and to limit your risk you need to be drafting top-100 NFL picks whenever possible.

Thank you for reading Wide Receiver Hit Rates 2016-2020

For more great Fantasy Football content, subscribe to our YouTube Channel and follow us on Twitter. Be sure to head on over to rookiedraftguide.com for all our rookie player reviews for both 2021 Offensive and Defensive prospect breakdowns. Become a VIP for only $6 to view all eight category rankings, and view the strengths and weaknesses our team has identified for each player.