Wide receiver consistency is one of those topics that I think it is tough for people to truly gauge without the data in front of them. We remember the big weeks that a player puts up, but we forget almost everything else. On top of that, what would be considered “consistent” and what truly makes a player “boom or bust”?
The first thing we have to look at is that not every week is created equal. For example, in two weeks, all it took was 7.5 PPR points to be a WR3. In another it took 13.8. That is a full touchdown difference. Here is what it took to be a WR1-WR3 in 2019.
Rank | Min | Max | Average |
---|---|---|---|
WR1 | 16.5 | 24.3 | 19.8 |
WR2 | 11.4 | 17.1 | 14.5 |
WR3 | 7.5 | 13.8 | 10.9 |
When we look at a WR weekly ranking it is important to note that it is not a fair to gauge simply on weeks as a WR1, WR2 or WR3. For example, in week 1 there were eight wide receivers that topped the 19.8 WR1 average, but fell in as WR2 because it took a 24.3 average to be a WR1. Were those receivers really any less valuable because they scored between 21.7 & 23.5 points?
8. Weekly WR1 Weeks
There were 13 players that had 5 or more WR1 weeks with Michael Thomas blowing the field away with 11 himself and 2nd coming in with only 6.
Player | #WR1 Weeks | #WR1 AVG (19.8 Pts) | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
Michael Thomas | 11 | 10 | -1 |
Robert Woods | 6 | 5 | -1 |
Davante Adams | 6 | 5 | -1 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 5 | -1 |
Julio Jones | 6 | 5 | -1 |
Kenny Golladay | 6 | 5 | -1 |
Allen Robinson | 5 | 5 | Even |
Julian Edelman | 5 | 5 | Even |
Chris Godwin | 5 | 5 | Even |
A.J. Brown | 5 | 5 | Even |
Cooper Kupp | 5 | 5 | Even |
DeVante Parker | 5 | 5 | Even |
Mike Evans | 5 | 4 | -1 |
As you can see, about half of the field had a -1 when compared to the WR1 Average. When using the average of the threshold, we find 11 receivers with more weeks above the average than actual WR1 weeks.
Player | #WR1 Weeks | #WR1 AVG (19.8 Pts) | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
Amari Cooper | 4 | 5 | +1 |
Calvin Ridley | 3 | 4 | +1 |
Michael Gallup | 3 | 4 | +1 |
D.J. Moore | 2 | 3 | +1 |
Terry McLaurin | 2 | 3 | +1 |
Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 3 | +1 |
Chris Conley | 2 | 3 | +1 |
Adam Thielen | 1 | 2 | +1 |
DK Metcalf | 1 | 2 | +1 |
Tyrell Williams | 0 | 1 | +1 |
Brandin Cooks | 0 | 1 | +1 |
We also see 10 players, that were not in the tables above, who lose WR1 weeks compared to the average.
Player | #WR1 Weeks | #WR1 AVG (19.8 Pts) | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
Deebo Samuel | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Stefon Diggs | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Dionte Johnson | 3 | 2 | -1 |
John Brown | 3 | 2 | -1 |
Zach Pascal | 3 | 2 | -1 |
Cole Beasley | 2 | 1 | -1 |
Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 1 | -1 |
Jaron Brown | 1 | 0 | -1 |
Allen Lazard | 1 | 0 | -1 |
Jakeem Grant | 1 | 0 | -1 |
7. Looking at WR2 & WR3 Weeks
Here all the players with at least four WR2 weeks.
Player | #WR2 Weeks | #WR2 AVG (14.5 Pts) | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
D.J. Moore | 7 | 6 | -1 |
Tyler Lockett | 6 | 4 | -2 |
Julian Edelman | 5 | 5 | Even |
Allen Robinson | 5 | 5 | Even |
Courland Sutton | 5 | 5 | Even |
DeVante Parker | 4 | 4 | Even |
DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 6 | +2 |
Chris Godwin | 4 | 2 | -2 |
Amari Cooper | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Calvin Ridley | 4 | 4 | Even |
Golden Tate | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Dede Westbrook | 4 | 4 | Even |
Curtis Samuel | 4 | 4 | Even |
Mike Williams | 4 | 2 | -1 |
First, we have to acknowledge that differences aren’t all created equally. For example, D.J. Moore lost a WR2 week to moving up to a WR1 while DeAndre Hopkins gained one from a WR1 & WR3 week moving according to the weekly average.
Player | #WR3 Weeks | #WR3 Avg (10.9 Pts) | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
Odell Beckham Jr. | 6 | 4 | -2 |
John Brown | 6 | 7 | +1 |
DK Metcalf | 6 | 7 | +1 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 4 | -2 |
Tyler Boyd | 5 | 5 | Even |
Tyrell Williams | 5 | 5 | Even |
Mecole Hardman | 5 | 4 | -1 |
Jarvis Landry | 4 | 7 | +3 |
Cooper Kupp | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Keenan Allen | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Randall Cobb | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Cole Beasley | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Michael Gallup | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Again, when it comes to WR3 weeks, the difference can be made up by both moving down from WR2 weeks and up from WR4 weeks.
6. Combined WR1-WR3 Weeks
All my leagues start 3 WR’s. Having guys that hit that threshold consistently are important. Obviously the numbers aren’t equal as WR1 weeks are worth more than WR3 weeks, but this gives us an idea of who is a safe play week-to-week.
Here are the 32 players that were WR1-WR3 in a 50%+ of their teams games.
Player | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|
Michael Thomas | 11 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
Julio Jones | 6 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
DeVante Parker | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
Julian Edelman | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12 |
John Brown | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
Cooper Kupp | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
Keenan Allen | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
Amari Cooper | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
Kenny Golladay | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
Chris Godwin | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
Tyler Boyd | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
Jarvis Landry | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
Michael Gallup | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
Robert Woods | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
D.J. Moore | 2 | 7 | 1 | 10 |
Allen Robinson | 5 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
DK Metcalf | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
Cole Beasley | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
Golden Tate | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
Deebo Samuel | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
D.J. Chark | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
Calvin Ridley | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
Courtland Sutton | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
Davante Adams | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
Tyler Lockett | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
A.J. Brown | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
Tyreek Hill | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
Mike Evans | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
Terry McLaurin | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
And here is how that list changes when factoring in the average threshold for each of WR1, WR2, & WR3 on the season.
Player | WR1 (19.8) | WR2 (14.5) | WR3 (10.9) | Total | +/- |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michael Thomas | 10 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
Allen Robinson | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | +3 |
Julio Jones | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
DeVante Parker | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Julian Edelman | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Cooper Kupp | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | +1 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 6 | 1 | 12 | +1 |
Jarvis Landry | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | +2 |
D.J. Moore | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12 | +2 |
John Brown | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Keenan Allen | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
Chris Godwin | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
DK Metcalf | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | +2 |
Amari Cooper | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -1 |
Kenny Golladay | 5 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -1 |
Tyler Boyd | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
Courtland Sutton | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | +1 |
Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | +1 |
Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -1 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -1 |
Michael Gallup | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -1 |
Robert Woods | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -1 |
Cole Beasley | 1 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Golden Tate | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Deebo Samuel | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Calvin Ridley | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Davante Adams | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
A.J. Brown | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | +1 |
Tyreek Hill | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Terry McLaurin | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Tyrell Williams | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | +1 |
Stefon Diggs | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | +1 |
As you can see, Tyrell Williams (+1) and Stefon Diggs (+1) jump into the top 32 with Mike Evans (-1) and D.J. Chark (-2) dropping out. The biggest mover was Allen Robinson who only had 10 WR1-WR3 weeks, yet scored 10.9 (WR3 Average) in 13 games.
5. Creating a Value Metric
How do we determine who is the most valuable? Obviously, 12 WR3 weeks would not be as valuable as 5 WR1 & 5 WR2 weeks. To create a value chart, I simply added a value to each level.
- WR1 = 6
- WR2 = 4
- WR3 = 2
Then, to take it a step further, I ran a poll in our FB group and on Twitter to see what weekly score most people saw as a “week winning” score in a vacuum. The options were 25+, 30+, 35+, & 40+.
Here are the results:
30+ was the runaway winner. So, I also gave each player a bonus for weeks of 30+ PPR points.
- 30+ PPR Points = 4 Points
Here are players with 30+ point weeks.
Player | 30+ Point Weeks |
---|---|
Michael Thomas | 4 |
Chris Godwin | 3 |
Mike Evans | 3 |
Amari Cooper | 2 |
Cooper Kupp | 2 |
Darius Slayton | 2 |
D.J. Chark | 2 |
Tyler Locket | 2 |
Robert Woods | 1 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 1 |
Julio Jones | 1 |
D.J. Moore | 1 |
Jarvis Landry | 1 |
A.J. Brown | 1 |
Tyreek Hill | 1 |
DeVante Parker | 1 |
Marquise Brown | 1 |
Keenan Allen | 1 |
Tyler Boyd | 1 |
Christian Kirk | 1 |
Stefon Diggs | 1 |
Will Fuller | 1 |
John Ross | 1 |
John Brown | 1 |
Michael Gallup | 1 |
Emmanuel Sanders | 1 |
Marvin Jones | 1 |
Breshad Perriman | 1 |
Sammy Watkins | 1 |
DeSean Jackson | 1 |
Demarcus Robinson | 1 |
Taylor Gabriel | 1 |
Adam Thielen | 1 |
After factoring all that in, I averaged their normal score with their average rank score and came up with the following.
4. The WR1’s
Player | Score |
---|---|
Michael Thomas | 103.5 |
Chris Godwin | 65 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 64.5 |
Julio Jones | 63.5 |
Cooper Kupp | 62 |
DeVante Parker | 61 |
Julian Edelman | 59 |
Amari Cooper | 58.5 |
Allen Robinson | 58 |
Kenny Golladay | 54.5 |
Robert Woods | 54.5 |
Keenan Allen | 53 |
The list changes a little when we divide their score by games played to get their per game average score.
Player | Per Game Score |
---|---|
Michael Thomas | 6.57 |
Chris Godwin | 4.64 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 4.30 |
Julio Jones | 4.23 |
Davante Adams | 4.21 |
Mike Evans | 3.96 |
Cooper Kupp | 3.88 |
DeVante Parker | 3.81 |
Julian Edelman | 3.69 |
Amari Cooper | 3.66 |
Robert Woods | 3.63 |
Allen Robinson | 3.63 |
3. The WR2’s
Players | Score |
---|---|
Tyler Lockett | 52 |
Mike Evans | 51.5 |
D.J. Moore | 51.5 |
Davante Adams | 50.5 |
D.J. Chark | 50 |
A.J. Brown | 48 |
Michael Gallup | 46.5 |
Jarvis Landry | 46 |
Calvin Ridley | 43.5 |
Tyreek Hill | 43 |
Tyler Boyd | 43 |
John Brown | 42.5 |
And the per game WR13-WR24
Player | Per Game Score |
---|---|
Tyreek Hill | 3.58 |
D.J. Moore | 3.43 |
Kenny Golladay | 3.41 |
Calvin Ridley | 3.35 |
D.J. Chark | 3.33 |
Michael Gallup | 3.32 |
Keenan Allen | 3.31 |
Tyler Lockett | 3.25 |
Golden Tate | 3.18 |
A.J. Brown | 3.00 |
Marvin Jones | 2.92 |
Jarvis Landry | 2.88 |
2. The WR3’s
Player | Score |
---|---|
Deebo Samuel | 41.5 |
Stefon Diggs | 41.5 |
Jamison Crowder | 40 |
Courtland Sutton | 39 |
Marvin Jones | 38 |
Emmanuel Sanders | 37 |
Terry McLaurin | 36.5 |
Golden Tate | 35 |
Odell Beckham | 34 |
Cole Beasley | 33.5 |
Darius Slayton | 33 |
DK Metcalf | 31.5 |
And the per game WR25-WR36
Player | Per Game Score |
---|---|
John Brown | 2.83 |
Deebo Samuel | 2.77 |
Stefon Diggs | 2.77 |
John Ross | 2.75 |
Tyler Boyd | 2.69 |
Terry McLaurin | 2.61 |
Jamison Crowder | 2.50 |
Courtland Sutton | 2.44 |
Sterling Shepard | 2.40 |
Darius Slayton | 2.36 |
Alshon Jeffrey | 2.35 |
Christian Kirk | 2.31 |
1. In Conclusion
I will be honest, I don’t know at this time how well this whole theory actually works. A discussion in our Facebook Group sent me down a tunnel and here we are.
We do know that there is value in being consistent when it comes to fantasy football. Having guys that are “no-brainers” helps in your decision making on a week-to-week basis.
Factor in the value of having a “week winning” score of 30+ (only 45 of those) during the season and I think for now, this is a fair assessment of WR values.
Let me all know what you think. You can find me @RotoHeatRick on Twitter. Maybe we end up tweaking it after it all soaks in.