What to Expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021

There has been plenty of chatter and focus paid to Trevor Lawrence since he was a true freshman at Clemson and rightfully so. Lawrence, as you all know, was recently selected first overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the NFL Draft.

Lawrence is being referred to as a “Generational Talent,” one of, if not the most overused term in scouting today. With that said, Lawrence seems to check all the boxes and has been referred to as the best college QB prospect since Andrew Luck entered the league in 2012.

A season ago, it was Joe Burrow who was selected first overall, and Burrow was a QB that I was very high on coming out. I wrote a Joe Burrow article last season, and in that article I compared and reviewed the 14 quarterbacks selected first overall since 2001 in an attempt to get a feel for my expectations of Joe Burrow as a rookie.

This season I’m looking at the first overall QBs in a different light. I have a fairly good idea what we should expect out of Trevor Lawrence as a rookie, but what should we expect out of the Jacksonville offense as a whole?

I’ve gone back to 2011 and taken a look at the seven rookie QBs to record a top-12 fantasy season as a rookie. The QBs studied are as follows: Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, and Justin Herbert. In addition to studying these QBs, I have also reviewed how the key contributors of their offenses performed as well to help get a feel for the members of the Jacksonville offense.

8. Cam Newton

What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.
What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.

Newton was selected first overall in 2011 out of Auburn and Cam took the league by storm. He concluded his rookie season with 441.2 points (the highest of the seven top-12 rookie QBs studied) and as the QB4. 

Joining Newton in the Panthers’ backfield in 2011 were Jonathan Stewart and DeAngleo Williams. The duo combined for 297 rushing attempts and added in 63 receptions.  Stewart and Williams combined for a total of 2,145 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns.  Stewart was RB18 and Williams was RB29.

In the passing game, there were two receivers of significance–Steve Smith, and to a much lesser extent, Brandon LaFell.  Smith was head and shoulders above the rest in the Panthers’ passing game in 2011, leading the team with 129 targets with LaFell as the next highest at WR with 56.  Smith had a great season with over 1,300 yards and seven touchdowns.  Smith finished as WR7 and LaFell was WR60. 

Rounding out the skilled player positions at tight end for the Panthers in 2011 were Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey.  Olsen led the way with 89 targets, 540 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Shockey chipped in with 37 receptions on 62 targets for 455 yards and four scores. Olsen finished as TE18 and Shockey as TE23.

What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.
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Newton as a rookie on route to his QB4 season generated a top-12 WR and a top-24 RB.  The remainder of the offense was flex worthy at best from week to week. Cam’s lofty fantasy totals can be attributed to his rushing totals. He finished his debut season with 706 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns.

7. Andrew Luck

What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.
What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.

Of the rookie QB1s reviewed for this article, Andrew Luck is the most talented. I am sure that some will argue that point, but other than durability I don’t think the others are close. Andrew Luck also happens to be the QB that Lawrence is most commonly referred to.  Countless times we have all heard, “Trevor Lawrence is the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck”.

Luck was selected first overall in 2012 out of Stanford. As a rookie, he threw for 4,374 yards, 23 touchdowns and 18 interceptions.  Luck finished up his rookie season with 276.46 fantasy points and as the QB9.

Joining Luck in the Colts’ 2012 backfield were Vic Ballard and Donald Brown.  The duo combined for 319 rushing attempts and added in 26 receptions.  They combined for a total of 1,476 scrimmage yards and 4 touchdowns.  Ballard was RB33 and Brown was RB60.

There were three relevant fantasy WRs for Luck to target in 2012–Reggie Wayne, Donnie Avery, and T.Y. Hilton.  The trio combined for 409 targets (65% of Luck’s attempts), 216 receptions, 2,997 yards and 15 touchdowns.  Wayne led the way with his 106 catches, 1,355 yards and 5 touchdowns.  Wayne finished as WR10, Avery as WR42, and T.Y. Hilton WR31. 

Luck’s tight ends in 2012 were Dwayne Allen and Colby Fleener.  Allen finished as TE24 while Fleener came in as TE37.

What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.
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Luck as a rookie on route to his QB9 season generated a top-12 and top-36 WR.  The remainder of the offense were bye week fill-in-type players at best.

6. Robert Griffin III

What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.
What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.

Robert Griffin III was selected second overall in the 2012 NFL draft after the then Washington Redskins traded up to grab him out of Baylor. In 2012, Washington sent three first-round picks and a second-round pick to the Rams to move up four spots and get the opportunity to select Robert Griffin III. It was a ridiculous price, but for about 12 games it seemed like Washington made the right move. A knee injury ended Griffin’s incredible rookie year, and from there, things fell apart.

RGIII threw for 3,200 yards, 20 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.  In addition to the passing game, RGII added 120 carries, 815 yards and 7 touchdowns. Griffin finished up his rookie season with 303.05 fantasy points and as the QB5.

Joining RGIII in the Washington backfield was fellow rookie Alfred Morris. Morris dominated the Washington backfield with 335 rushing attempts and totaled 1,613 yards with 13 scores. In addition to his run game totals, Morris added in 11 receptions for 77 scoreless yards. Morris finished the season as RB8–the best season to date of his 9 year career.

There wasn’t much in terms of fantasy relevance when it came to the wide receivers. The top pass catchers for Washington in 2012 were Josh Morgan, Pierre Garcon, and Santana Moss. The trio combined for 203 targets (52% of RGII’s attempts), 133 receptions, 1,716 yards and 14 touchdowns.  Morgan led the way with targets and receptions, Garcon in receiving yards, and Moss in touchdown receptions. Morgan finished as WR64, Garcon as WR55, and Moss as WR48. 

RGIII’s tight ends in 2012 were Fred Davis and Logan Paulson.  The two tight ends were even less fantasy relevant than the wide receivers. Davis finished as TE41 while Paulson bettered Davis by one spot and finished as TE40. The duo combined for 118.4 PPR points which would been good for a TE19 finish in 2012.

What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.
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RGIII as a rookie generated a QB5 season, a top-10 RB, and a top-48 WR.  The remainder of the offense were irrelevant for fantasy in 2012. Clearly Griffin’s fantasy success can be attributed to running totals.

5. Russell Wilson

What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.
What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.

Russel Wilson was selected in the third round at 75th overall in the 2012 NFL draft out of Wisconsin.

At the time of his selection, the Seahawks were heavily criticized for the selecting Wilson. The fanbase was calling for Seattle to grab Washington RB Chris Polk (who went undrafted), and if QB was the pick it was thought Michigan State QB Kirk Cousins would have been a better choice. The knock on Wilson was his height. At 5’11” he was considered too short for the NFL.

Russell Wilson threw for 3,118 yards, 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.  In addition to the passing game, Wilson added 94 carries, 489 yards and 4 touchdowns. Russell Wilson concluded his rookie season with 275.62 fantasy points and as the QB11.

Joining Russell Wilson in 2012 in the backfield was Marshawn Lynch. Lynch was the Seahawks’ bell-cow back and he dominated touches. “Beast-mode” had 315 rushing attempts and totaled 1,590 yards with 11 scores. In addition to his run game totals, Lynch added in 23 receptions for 196 yards and a touchdown. Marshawn finished the season as RB5 with 269.6 PPR points.

There wasn’t much in terms of high-end fantasy relevance when it came to the wide receivers. The top pass catchers for Seattle in 2012 were Sidney Rice, Golden Tate, and Doug Baldwin. The three receivers combined for 200 targets (51% of Wilson’s attempts), 124 receptions, 1,802 yards and 17 touchdowns.  Rice led the way in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, and tied Golden Tate with 7 touchdowns. Rice finished as WR33, Tate as WR39, and Baldwin was WR77. 

Russell Wilson’s tight end in his rookie season was Zach Miller. Miller was targeted 53 times and turned those targets into 38 receptions for 396 yards and he failed to score a touchdown. Needless to say, Miller was not a fantasy relevant tight end, and he finished the 2012 season as TE30 with 93.6 PPR points.

What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.
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Wilson as a rookie on route to his QB11 season generated a top-5 RB and two top-48 WRs.  The remainder of the offense was irrelevant for fantasy in 2012. Wilson, (the third rookie QB to finish in the top-12 in 2012), was efficient in his debut season and his rushing ability contributed to 26.4% of his total fantasy points.

4. Dak Prescott

What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.v
What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.

Dak Prescott is the value add of this rookie top-12 QB group. Dak was selected in the fourth round as the 135th overall in the 2016 NFL draft out of Mississippi State.

The Dallas Cowboys entered the draft in 2016 with a plan to acquire a young quarterback to develop behind then starter, Tony Romo. After failing to trade up to select Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook, they settled on Dak Prescott. Unforeseen circumstances led to Dak starting every game of his rookie season and to Romo’s retirement. 

Prescott threw for 3,667 yards, 23 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.  In addition to the passing game, Dak had 57 carries for 282 yards and 6 touchdowns. Dak Prescott finished his rookie season with 286.88 fantasy points and as the QB6.

Joining Dak Prescott in the Dallas offense in 2016 was fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke dominated the touches out of the Cowboys’ backfield. Elliott turned 322 carries into 1,631 yards and 15 touchdowns. In addition to his run game totals, Zeke added 32 receptions for 363 yards and another score. Ezekiel Elliott finished the season as RB2 with 325.4 PPR points.

There wasn’t much in terms of high-end fantasy relevance when it came to the wide receivers. The top pass catchers for Dallas in 2016 were Dez Bryant, Cole Beasley, and Terrance Williams. The Cowboys trio combined for 255 targets (56% of Prescott’s attempts), 169 receptions, 2,223 yards and 17 touchdowns.  Beasley led the way with targets, receptions, and receiving yards, and Bryant led the way with 8 touchdowns. Beasley finished as WR33, Bryant as WR39, and Williams was WR63. 

Dak Prescott’s tight end in his rookie season was Jason Witten. Witten was targeted 95 times and turned those targets into 69 receptions for 673 yards and 3 touchdowns. Witten finished the season as the TE11 with 152.3 PPR points.

What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.
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Prescott as a rookie on route to his QB6 season generated a top-2 RB, a top-36 WR, and a top-12 TE.  Dez Bryant was flex worthy and the remainder of the offense was irrelevant for fantasy in 2016. Dak was solid in his debut season and his 29 total touchdowns with only 4 interceptions was a driving force behind his top-6 season.

3. Kyler Murray

What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.

Kyler Murray is the third member of the rookie top-12s to be a first overall selection. In the 2019 NFL draft, the Arizona Cardinals selected Kyler Murray with the top pick out of Oklahoma. Murray was the second successive first round QB selected by the Cardinals after they selected UCLA’s Josh Rosen with pick 10 in 2018. Kyler became the first player to ever be a first-round pick in both the MLB and NFL drafts.

Murray threw for 3,722 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.  In addition to the passing game, Kyler had 93 carries for 544 yards and 4 touchdowns. Kyler Murray finished his rookie season with 297.28 fantasy points and as the QB7.

Kyler had a mixed bag of a committee in his backfield as a rookie. He started the season with David Johnson as the perceived lead back and Chase Edmonds in a supporting role. In Week 7, Arizona added Kenyan Drake via trade and he led the backfield for the remainder of the season. The trio combined for 277 carries for 1,291 yards and 14 touchdowns. In addition to their run game totals, they collectively added 76 receptions for 646 yards and 5 scores. Drake finished as RB17 (RB8 with Arizona), Johnson was RB37, and Edmonds was RB56.

There were two primary wide receivers in 2019 for the Cardinals–Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. They combined for 217 targets (40% of Kyler’s attempts), 143 receptions, 1,523 yards and 7 touchdowns.  Fitzgerald led the way in all categories, seeing one target more than Kirk. Fitz finished as WR35 and Kirk was WR38.

Kyler had a trio of duds as tight ends in his rookie season. Charles Clay, Maxx Williams, and Dan Arnold combined for 53 targets, 39 receptions, and 4 touchdowns. Clay led the way as TE45. In fairness, the TE position doesn’t really fit into Kliff Kingsbury’s system.

What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.
What to Expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021 21

Kyler as a rookie on route to his QB7 season generated a top-24 RB, and a top-36 WR. Christian Kirk was flex worthy and depending on the situation, David Johnson and Chase Edmonds were as well. The remainder of the Cardinals offense in 2019 was irrelevant for fantasy.

2. Justin Herbert

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What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.

Justin Herbert was selected 6th overall by the Los Angeles Chargers in the 2020 NFL draft, one pick after the Miami Dolphins selected Tua Tagovailoa, and was the third QB selected. Herbert entered the 2020 season as the backup to starter Tyrod Taylor and was surrounded by question marks, most notably his ability to lead his offense.

Herbert threw for 4,336 yards, 31 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 15 games.  Herbert finished the year as the all-time rookie record-holder in passing touchdowns, total touchdowns (36), completions, games with 300-plus passing yards (eight), and games with three-plus touchdowns (six). As a result, Herbert was named the Rookie of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, and All-Rookie by the Professional Football Writers of America.

Joining Justin Herbert in the Chargers’ offense in 2020 was Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Kalen Ballage, and Justin Jackson. Ekeler was limited to 10 games due to injury, opening the door for the other three backs to step up. In the end, the quartet totaled 374 carries for 1,444 yards and 6 touchdowns. In addition to the run game totals, they added 116 receptions on 139 targets (23% of Herbert’s attempts) for 823 yards and 2 touchdowns. Austin Ekeler finished as RB26, Ballage was RB52, Kelley RB60, and Jackson was RB68.

In the passing game, the top pass catchers for LA in 2020 were Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Jalen Guyton. The Chargers were led by franchise WR Keenan Allen with his 147 targets (24% of Herbert’s attempts), 100 receptions, 992 yards and 8 touchdowns. Williams and Guyton chipped in with a combined 140 targets, 1,267 yards and 8 touchdowns. Allen finished as the WR13, Williams the WR48, and Guyton WR83.

Justin Herbert’s tight end in his rookie season was Hunter Henry. “Double H” was targeted 93 times, and turned those targets into 60 receptions for 613 yards and 4 touchdowns. Henry, operating as the team’s No.2 target, finished the season as the TE12 with 145.3 PPR points.

What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.
What to Expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021 22

Herbert as a rookie on route to his QB9 season generated a top-36 RB, a top-15 WR, and a top-12 TE. Mike Williams was flex worthy and at times Kalen Ballage was startable as well. The remainder of the Chargers’ offense in 2020 were for the most part irrelevant for fantasy.

1. Trevor Lawrence

What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.
What to expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.

As we prepare for the 2021 season, first overall selected Trevor Lawrence enters his first NFL season with the “Generational Talent” label firmly in place. Lawrence’s combination of floor and ceiling make him an incredibly intriguing prospect.

The remainder of the Jacksonville Jaguars seemingly get a boost simply by his presence, and members of the Jags offense are often described including the phrase “with Trevor Lawrence” at the end of it. What can we really expect from this Jacksonville offense in terms of fantasy relevance?

There are five key members of the Jaguars’ offense in addition to Lawrence this season–RBs James Robinson and Travis Etienne, and WRs Laviska Shenault, Marvin Jones Jr, and D.J. Chark. Despite the projections of many, for fantasy purposes, this offense, and Lawrence, cannot support all of them.

The greatest rookie QB in history, Justin Herbert (last season), generated a top-9 finish and produced a top-15 WR, a top-48 WR, as well as a top-12 TE. Andrew Luck, the QB most have compared Lawrence to, finished as QB9 and produced a top-12 WR and a top-36 WR. Luck also happened to take over an Indianapolis Colts team that was not your typical last place team, The reason they landed there was QB Peyton Manning missed the entire 2011 season after neck surgery. The team Trevor Lawrence is taking over is not nearly as talented. Simply put, there are no Reggie Wayne’s on the Jaguar’s roster.

Trevor Lawrence finishing as a top-12 QB in his rookie season would not surprise me one bit. I currently have him ranked as QB15.

James Robinson had a productive season as a rookie, finishing at RB7 with 250.4 PPR points in 14 games. Robinson was as productive as he was mainly due to volume. No back in the league had a higher percentage of their team’s carries than Robinson.

Joining Robinson in the Jaguars’ backfield in 2021 is first round selection Travis Etienne. Robinson will not be delivering like he did in 2020 mainly because his workload is about to take a significant hit. I currently have Travis Etienne ranked as RB24 and James Robinson as RB31. I expect them both to be heavily involved in the offense–Etienne more through the air and Robinson more on the ground.

In the passing game, D.J. Chark is perceived to get the biggest lift with Trevor Lawrence under center, and there are those that think very highly of second-year WR Laviska Shenault as well. Marvin Jones Jr. joins the team via free agency and very well might be the best WR on the roster. I currently have Shenault ranked WR32, Chark at WR42, Jones as WR50.

I expect this offense to look a lot like Urban Meyer’s Ohio State offenses. Urban Meyer’s offense is all about the Spread. The Spread offense should benefit Trevor Lawrence as Lawrence ran a pro-style Spread offense at Clemson.

As one would expect, the Spread offense is designed to spread out the opposition’s defense. The beauty of the Spread offense is it creates a mismatch when it comes to stopping the run. With the defense forced to cover four wide receivers, there are less defenders in the box and the RPO (Run-Pass-Option) is utilized. I see this benefitting Lawrence, Etienne, Robinson, and Shenault the most. Expect runs off the RPO by Lawrence, Robinson, and Etienne, combined with quick throws off the RPO to Etienne and Shenault. As a result, I do not expect Chark or Jones to benefit very much at all.

Jacksonville will be better in 2021 than they were in 2020. That, I believe, is a statement that we can all agree upon. What I don’t see is all the skilled positional players getting a fantasy boost simply because they now have Trevor Lawrence under center. Robinson and Etienne will eat into each other’s workload, and Shenault, Chark, Jones and perhaps Colin Johnson will do the same at WR. When it come to TE, the Jags are weak with rookie Luke Farrell and converted QB/baseball player Tim Tebow. All the TEs will do is further eat into the WRs’ touches while being fantasy irrelevant.

Trevor Lawrence may be as good as he is being hyped to be, but the likelihood of his offense generating top fantasy assets at all positions is unlikely. We have seen what the top rookie QBs in the past 10 seasons have generated in their rookie seasons, and when the dust settles on the 2021 season I do not expect Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars to buck the trend.

Thank you for reading What to Expect from Trevor Lawrence and the Jags Offense in 2021.

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