The Top 50 Series profiles individuals currently occupying a spot in the top-50 2021 Startup Dynasty ADP over on DLF. In Dynasty, there are certain players that tend to hold more uncertainty or are more divisive than others. The Top 50 Series takes a deep dive into the player’s career performance to date as well as his dynasty outlook for 2021 and beyond. The Top 50 Series continues with the profile of New Orleans Saints’ WR Michael Thomas.

Top 50 Series – Michael Thomas

Top 50 Series - Michael Thomas
Top 50 Series – Michael Thomas

Michael Thomas
ADP: 36
Team: New Orleans Saints
Age: 28
Height: 6′ 3″
Weight: 212

Ohio State WR Michael Thomas was selected by the New Orleans Saints with the 47th overall selection of the 2016 NFL Draft. With the pick, the Saints made Thomas the 7th wide receiver selected in the draft.

Michael Thomas spent three seasons at Ohio State, and in those three seasons he appeared in 39 games, totaling 113 receptions for 1,602 yards, and he scored 18 touchdowns. His best season was his 2014 junior season in which he caught 54 passes for 799 yards and scored nine touchdowns.

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In his rookie season, Michael Thomas was targeted 121 times, catching 92 of them for 1,137 yards and 9 touchdowns. He finished as WR7. He became only the second WR, (Odell Beckham Jr.) since 2010 to deliver a top-12 season as a rookie. In 2016, Thomas set franchise records for a rookie in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns.

The next three seasons were more of the same. In those three seasons, MT totaled 378 receptions on 481 targets for 4,375 yards and 23 touchdowns. Thomas finished those seasons as WR6, WR6, and the WR1. In his WR1 2019 season, Michael Thomas set an NFL record with 149 catches and recorded 1,725 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. Thomas finished the season with 374.6 PPR points.

The first four seasons of his career, Thomas averaged 255.7 PPR points and his worst fantasy finish was WR7. There were 336 WRs drafted between 2010 and 2020, and Michael Thomas is the only WR to deliver a top-12 season in each of his first four seasons.

The 2020 season was to be yet another dominating season for Thomas, as he entered the season atop the industry’s dynasty WR rankings. Instead, Thomas battled through injury and failed to find the end zone in 2020. He finished the season as WR95. Thomas (482 receptions) did however surpass Jarvis Landry (481 receptions) for the most catches by a player in his first five seasons in NFL history.

Top 50 Series - Michael Thomas
Top 50 Series – Michael Thomas

Michael Thomas 2021 & Beyond

The big change for Thomas and the Saints organization in 2021 is at the quarterback position. For the first time since 2006, the New Orleans Saints will start a season without Drew Brees at QB. This season the Saints will turn to either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill under center, and likely they go with both. The loss of Brees will have an impact on the entire offense, including Michael Thomas.

If Thomas can stay healthy in 2021, which in all likelihood he will, then Thomas should find himself in the top-5-7 range at his position once again. In 2019 with Teddy Bridgewater as his QB for 5 games, MT was WR1 averaging 23 points a game. In 2020, Taysom Hill started 4 games at QB for the Saints, and at less than 100%, Thomas was WR15 averaging 16.1 points a game.

Looking past 2021, the QB situation in New Orleans is not clear. What is clear, as displayed in Thomas’ career to date, is that he is an high performing fantasy WR regardless of his QB. At 28 years of age, there will be a large percentage of dynasty managers looking to move on from Michael Thomas. I would suggest that is not wise. Elite WRs are fantasy relevant into their 30’s, and Thomas is an elite WR.

Value

Michael Thomas is, in my opinion, the buy of the off-season and the most under valued fantasy asset there is. All he has done when healthy is deliver game-in game-out consistent fantasy finishes on route to top-7 seasons.

I currently have him ranked 26th, and he is my 11th ranked WR in my 1QB start-up PPR rankings. The RotoHeat consensus rankings has Thomas at 24th. Once we have some more clarity with the QB position I will be moving Thomas up. I currently have him ranked at what I perceive to be his floor over a 17-game season.

The DLF ADP of 36th is ridiculously low in my opinion, however WR12 is in his range of outcomes. I tend to rank the wide receivers higher than most, thus the disparity in ADP in conjunction with a similar positional ranking. I see Thomas as a great value add in startups this season, as he continues to give you top-10 upside without the price tag. If you have yet to complete your rookie draft and are looking to buy Michael Thomas for some draft picks, I would comfortably be willing to move a first round pick in the 1.04-1.06 range.

Thank you for reading Top 50 Series – Michael Thomas.

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