The Top 50 Series continues with the profile of Baltimore Ravens’ RB JK Dobbins.
The Top 50 Series profiles individuals currently occupying a spot in the top-50 2021 Startup Dynasty ADP over on DLF. In Dynasty, there are certain players that tend to hold more uncertainty or are more divisive than others. The Top 50 Series takes a deep dive into the player’s career performance to date as well as his dynasty outlook for 2021 and beyond.
Top 50 Series – JK Dobbins
Team: Baltimore Ravens
Height: 5′ 9″
Ohio State RB JK Dobbins was selected by the Baltimore Ravens in the 2nd round (55th overall) in the 2020 NFL Draft. With the pick, the Ravens made Dobbins the 5th running back selected in the draft.
JK Dobbins spent three years at Ohio State, appearing in 42 games for the Buckeyes. In those 42 games, he totaled 4,459 yards on 725 carries and he scored 38 touchdowns. In addition to his rushing totals, Dobbins added 71 receptions for 645 yards and 5 touchdowns. His best year came during his junior season in 2019. Dobbins rushed for over 2,000 yards and totaled 2,250 yards and 23 scores on 325 touches. Dobbins was a Doak Walker Award finalist and finished sixth for the Heisman Trophy and was named First Team All-Big Ten.
Dobbins rookie season started slow. After the first six weeks, he had 228 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. He was sitting at RB39 with 34.8 PPR points. He looked really good when he had the football–the problem was volume, not talent. In those 6 weeks, Dobbins had 36 touches and the 11 touches in Week 6 were a season high.
Baltimore RB Mark Ingram was inactive in Weeks 7 & 8 and was used sparingly in the 4 games he played in the remainder of the season. This paved the way to weekly double digit touches for Dobbins. From Week 7 through the end of the season, Dobbins averaged 13 touches a game and totaled 651 yards on the ground and another 46 yards via the pass and scored seven touchdowns in 9 games. He was RB9 averaging 12.9 points per game from Week 7 to 17.
The most impressive stat for JK Dobbins in 2020 was his 6.01 yards per carry average. He led all running backs in that category and only Lamar Jackson (6.3) and Kyler Murray (6.2) had a higher yards per carry in 2020.
JK Dobbins 2021 & Beyond
With Mark Ingram off to Houston, the Ravens backfield belongs to JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. We got a preview last season of what the split will likely look like, with Dobbins seeing around 60% of the snaps and Edwards seeing around 40% of the snaps between Weeks 7 and 17.
Dobbins is a member of a very solid sophomore class as the 2020 RB class is shaping up to give the 2017 RB class a run for its money as the deepest RB class in recent memory. While Dobbins may not give you the ceiling that his peers Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, D’Andre Swift, and Antonio Gibson do, he likely has the safest floor.
Dobbins has one of the safest floors because of his ability as a pure runner in the most prolific rushing attack in the league, but his upside is capped due to limited work in the passing game. Between Weeks 7 and 17, he averaged just 1.1 targets per game. This is a number that (despite talk out of Ravens minicamp) that I would expect to carry into 2021 and beyond as long as Lamar Jackson is the Ravens’ QB.
The Ravens targeted the RB 51 times a season ago, last in the NFL. When situations arise that lead to the QB checking down and dumping it off to the RB, Lamar Jackson more often that not tucks the ball takes off. It’s one the reasons Lamar is such a valuable fantasy QB, and its a major reason why I am concerned about J.K. Dobbins upside.
This should not be taken as an “avoid JK Dobbins” article because it’s certainly is not. I am a Dobbins fan and I roster him in several leagues.
I currently have Dobbins ranked 21st, and he is my 11th ranked RB in my 1QB start-up PPR rankings. The RotoHeat consensus rankings has him two spots higher at 19. The DLF ADP of 22 and rank of RB14 align with my rankings, although I believe RB14 is a little low. Despite the limited work in the passing game, this is an elite level rusher that is certain to get a lot of work if he remains healthy.
If you are looking to bolster your roster and wish to buy J.K. Dobbins, be prepared to pay up. Dobbins is the type of asset that should fetch the 1.01 or 1.02 in 1QB formats. If you are looking to move a player for Dobbins, it is likely going to cost you a player like Stefon Diggs or Antonio Gibson. He is a tough player to buy, and if I am rebuilding would be looking to sell.
Thank you for reading Top 50 Series – JK Dobbins.
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