Todd Gurley 2020 Dynasty Outlook

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Next up in our Dynasty Outlook series; J.J. Arcega-Whiteside 2020 Dynasty Outlook . In Dynasty, there are certain players that tend to hold more uncertainty, or are more divisive than others. The Dynasty Outlook series takes a deeper dive into those players that the RotoHeat community noted as the guys they are most interested in hearing about. Engage with 1,300+ passionate dynasty players and let the RotoHeat content team know what topics YOU want to hear about by visiting our RotoHeat Facebook page.

Todd Gurley 2020 Dynasty Outlook 2020 Dynasty Outlook

Todd Gurley 2020 Dynasty Outlook
ATHENS, GA – SEPTEMBER 27: Todd Gurley #3 of the Georgia Bulldogs leaps over Taylor Maxey #47 as he rushes against the Tennessee Volunteers at Sanford Stadium on September 27, 2014 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Todd Gurley was selected by the St. Louis Rams in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft with the 10th overall pick. He was the 1st running back selected, 5 spots higher than the San Diego Chargers’ Melvin Gordon. In 30 games at Georgia, Gurley totaled 3,285 rushing yards, 615 receiving yards and scored 41 touchdowns. In his final year at Georgia, Gurley was suspended for four games for a violation of NCAA rules, and in his first game back from his suspension he tore his ACL against Auburn, ending his junior season.

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Gurley finished his 2015 rookie season with 1,106 rushing yards and ten touchdowns on 229 carries despite making only 12 starts.  He was one of the five rookies to be selected to the Pro Bowl, along with Marcus Peters, Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, and Jameis Winston. Gurley beat out Winston for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and finished as RB9 with 208.6 points in PPR scoring.

In 2016 the Rams relocated to Los Angeles and Gurley struggled in his second season. In the unimaginative Jeff Fisher offense, Gurley finished the season with 278 carries for 885 yards and 6 touchdowns. 2016 did show us Gurley’s pass catching ability, however. He was targeted 58 times, catching 43 of them for 327 yards. Gurley ended 2016 as RB15 with 198.2 PPR points.

Following the firing of Jeff Fisher and hiring of Sean McVay as new head coach in 2017, Gurley looked to rebound off of a down year which frustrated him with the Rams, prompting him to call the former playbook of the team similar to that of a “middle school offense”. He finished his bounce back season with 1,305 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. He continued to excel in the passing game, recording a career highs in targets with 87 and receptions with 64. Those 64 receptions turned into 788 yards and 6 touchdowns. Gurley finished 2017 as RB1 with 383.3 fantasy points. The season quieted those that felt that after his down 2016 season that he was a bust.

Gurley entered the 2018 season atop many ranking sheets and as the highest paid running back in the NFL. The Rams exercised Gurley’s 5th year option in April, and 3 months later on July 24, 2018, signed Gurley to a four-year, $60 million contract extension with the Rams with $45 million guaranteed.

Todd Gurley 2020 Dynasty Outlook
Todd Gurley 2020 Dynasty Outlook 4

Through the first 13 weeks of the 2018 season, Todd Gurley rushed for 1,175 yards with 15 touchdowns and added 46 catches for 474 yards and 4 more scores. In those 12 games Gurley averaged 23 touches a game. He was sitting at RB1 with 328.9 PPR points–25 more than Saquon Barkley.

The following two weeks saw Gurley’s touches drop. He had only 11 carries in week 14 and 12 in week 15. He was then held out of the final two regular season games due to knee inflammation and finished the season with 256 carries for 1,251 yards and 17 touchdowns rushing, along with 59 receptions for 580 yards and four touchdowns receiving. Gurley ended 2018 as RB3 with 372.1 points trailing only Christian McCaffrey and the top scoring Saquon Barkley.

The Rams finished the 2018 season with a loss to the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. In the NFC Divisional Playoff game, Gurley returned from his injury and totaled 118 yards on 18 touches. The following week against the New Orleans Saints, Gurley had a total of 4 carries and a catch for 13 yards, and in the Super Bowl, he was limited to 11 total touches. There was something seriously wrong with Todd Gurley, and it was being reported that he had arthritis in his left knee.

After an offseason under a microscope, and his team trading up to draft rookie Darrell Henderson in the third round, all signs pointed to a reduced role for Todd Gurley. In addition to drafting Darrell Henderson, the Rams also matched an offer sheet to RB Malcolm Brown.

Gurley finished the 2019 season with 857 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns to go along with 31 receptions for 207 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. He appeared in 15 games, and his 1,064 total yards were the lowest of his 5 year career. His 254 touches were the lowest since his 250 in his rookie season. He finished 2019 as RB14 with 219.4 PPR points.

On March 19, 2020, Gurley was released by the Rams. He ended his career with the Rams organization with 1,265 rushing attempts for 5,404 yards and 58 touchdowns. His receiving totals are 301 targets, 218 receptions, 2,090 yards and 12 scores. In five seasons he averaged 297 touches a year.

On April 6, 2020, Gurley signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract with the Atlanta Falcons. The deal included a $2 million signing bonus as well as $500,000 in incentives if he reaches 13 touchdowns or 1,000 rushing yards.

This time last season, the fantasy world was freaking out over the severity of his ailing knee. When you look at his final stats from 2019 vs. 2018, it would appear those concerns were valid. Lost in all of this however, was the fact that the Rams went from being the league’s best run-blocking unit in 2018 and to 26th in 2019.

Gurley still scored double-digit rushing touchdowns, but his yards per carry came in at just 3.8. That’s over a yard lower per carry than in 2018. He also saw a reduced role in the passing game with his targets dropping from 5.4 per game in 2018 to just 3.5 last season. The problem with Todd Gurley in 2019 wasn’t his knee, it was his usage.  When the Falcons released Devonta Freeman, they also released 184 rushing attempts and 70 targets.  Those are not monster touch numbers per say, but they are numbers that are likely to increase with Todd Gurley.

As far as landing spots go, the Falcons are about as good as gets for Gurley. He joins a potent offense with minimal competition for touches. Atlanta was much better in run blocking than the Rams last season, grading out as the league’s 11th best. There’s certainly some optimism here for fantasy purposes. It’s a homecoming for Gurley, and he’s motivated on a one-year deal.  I fully expect the Falcons to add a running back in the draft, but I also expect that they give Gurley all he can handle in terms of workload in 2020.

This isn’t the 2017 version of Todd Gurley. If he was, he’d still be a member of the Rams. His injury concerns are legit.  He has 1,483 touches over the last five years and an arthritic knee. Weighing the pros and the cons, I see Gurley as a back with a top 12 ceiling and a very low floor.  All in all, it’s fair in my opinion to view Gurley as a top-15 running back. 

Todd Gurley 2020 Dynasty Outlook
SANTA CLARA, CA – OCTOBER 21: Todd Gurley #30 of the Los Angeles Rams celebrates after a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers during their NFL game at Levi’s Stadium on October 21, 2018 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) Todd Gurley 2020 Dynasty Outlook

Todd Gurley Dynasty Outlook – Beyond 2020

This is where my opinion of Todd Gurley takes a rather dramatic turn. As I stated earlier, I expect the Atlanta Falcons to give Todd Gurley all the touches he can handle in 2020. I also don’t expect there to be a whole lot left in his tank for 2021, let alone years after that. It’s also very probable that on a one year deal in 2020 that he isn’t back in Atlanta the following season, especially if they draft like I think they will.

Todd Gurley will be 27 entering the 2021 season and with close to 1,800 career touches on his resume. He will also still have the degenerative problem in his left knee. If Todd Gurley were Cinderella, the clock on his career is at 10:00 PM. It’s likely that the 2020 season is Gurley’s final season as any team’s #1 RB.

Value

Todd Gurley had an ADP of 19 entering his rookie season. That climbed to #9 in 2016. He slid back to #16 after the down 2016 season, and catapulted up to #2 after his monster 2017 campaign. Entering last season, surrounded by the uncertainty in his knee, he was down to #15, and he enters 2020 with an ADP of 41.

I have Gurley ranked as my RB23, 60th overall in 1 QB formats. If I am a contending team in 2020, I am taking a flyer on him and buying. If I am not a contender this season and I own Gurley, then I will look to sell him to someone who still believes in his talents. If selling, I would be looking for a late first round 2020 pick in return or a player like a Tyler Lockett or Mark Andrews.

Thank you for reading the Todd Gurley 2020 Dynasty Outlook. Follow me on Twitter @RotoHeatSully, and subscribe to the Sully’s 2 Cents Podcast for more of my fantasy football content.

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