The Perfect 2020 Redraft
Draft season is in full swing and hitting its’ peak this weekend, with a lot of fantasy owners having one or more drafts. To that matter, I thought, what better than to give the RotoHeat community my absolute favorite player in every round.
In this article, I am going to give you my “Perfect Draft” in a 12-team redraft league. That means I am going through fifteen rounds and giving you the player that I have as my ideal pick for every single of those rounds. I will of course be selecting at least 1 QB and 1 TE. No kicker or DST.
I will take the Average Draft Position from FantasyPros.com and pick a player that corresponds with the rank where a round starts.
That means round 3 will start at rank25 in ADP, round 4 at 37 and so on. In the first round I cheated a bit and took someone who has a second round ADP, but that should only mean that he is quite often available in the first round of your drafts. In the end, I should have my perfect team.
1. Round 1 to 3 (ADP 1-36)
Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders – ADP 13
Of course, most fantasy owners would prefer to be picking at 1.01 to 1.03 because you can then get one of the “Big Three” RBs, but for the sake of this article, I wanted to keep it a bit wider as, let’s face it, only 3 out of the 12 people in your draft can get those three.
The player I find myself drafting the most in round 1 this season is Josh Jacobs. I have had the 1.10 in surprisingly many drafts and have come away with Jacobs in most of them. Jacobs is locked in for a solid workload on the ground and near the goalline. And even though the Raiders have acquired multiple pass catching RBs, I still believe Jacobs will see more than the 27 targets he received in his rookie season. ProFootballFocus did a deep dive on how running back targets increase from rookie to sophomore seasons, concluding that Jacobs should indeed see an expanded role in the passing game.
He was the RB13 in fantasy points per game last season despite his low volume in the passing game and of those 13 RBs, he had the third lowest number of total TDs, with 7. I expect improvement in both areas, so lock him in as your RB1.
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons – ADP 18
This is a guy that is locked in as a beast at the WR-position. Since 2014, Julio Jones has never finished worse than WR7 on the season. That is incredible consistency, and even after the addition of Calvin Ridley, Julio has finished as WR4 and WR3. The targets and yards for Jones is always there and that is not changing in 2020. Coming off a season with 157 targets, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Julio sees even more targets. The Falcons has 258 vacated targets from last season, and although Hayden Hurst, Todd Gurley and Calvin Ridley will get a number of them, it’s not impossible to see Julio get a part of them too.
Grab Julio Jones in the second round as your WR1. You will not regret it.
DJ Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers – ADP 28
DJ Moore is my favorite fantasy player this season, which of course means he is on my perfect team as well. He came off a season where he was the WR15 in points pr. game despite having atrocious quarterback play. His QB, Kyle Allen, was 33rd in true passer rating (adjusted for unpressured throwaways and dropped passes). With 32 teams in the league, it is quite disheartening that he couldn’t even be top32 as a starter.
Now DJ Moore gets Teddy Bridgewater, who fed Michael Thomas last year in the games he started, as his QB. This is a significant upgrade, as Bridgewater ranked 9th in true passer rating, albeit in a smaller sample. Add Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator of LSUs college championship winning offense last season, and this offense could be very potent this coming season. The offense is going run through Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore, so I’m very excited for both players, and I have Moore ranked as my WR7 this season, so I want to get him in the third round for my perfect draft, where he is an incredible value pick at where I have him.
2. Round 4 to 6 (ADP 37-72)
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts – ADP 42
There are a lot of good wide receivers that could also have made the list in this round, but the prospect of getting Jonathan Taylor as my RB2 and someone who is almost certainly going to be a league winner in the second half of the season and the playoffs. Don’t get me wrong, Marlon Mack is a good RB. Jonathan Taylor is simply better. Draft capital and skill as a runner dictate that Taylor, who had over 6000 rushing yards in 3 college seasons, will take over this backfield sooner rather than later. The perfect pick for you in the 4th round.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks – ADP 52
There is a lot of buzz surrounding DK Metcalf and some people have him finishing the season higher than his teammate, Tyler Lockett. I do not agree with that statement, but that does not mean I do not like DK. I believe both receivers could easily eclipse 1000 receiving yards and DK Metcalf has immense touchdown upside given his large frame and incredible speed.
His 900 yards and 7 TDs compare favorably to those of Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones, who are other receivers with similar measurables. So even as the WR2 in this offense, he should also be a WR2 in fantasy with upside to potentially break in to WR1 range, making him solid value in the fifth round for my perfect draft.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals – ADP 71
Somewhat of an undervalued receiver, Tyler Boyd has quietly put together back-to-back Top18 PPR finishes at Wide Receiver. Now he has the best QB of his career in Joe Burrow, and he plays the slot-role that Burrow loved to utilize during his, Championship and Heisman Trophy-winning season. Boyd is clearly unlikely to retain his 148 targets this season, now that AJ Green is back, but I think his efficiency increases with a better QB. At WR32 ADP, getting Boyd is perfect in your draft as someone who could easily outperform his draft position.
3. Round 7 to 9 (ADP 73-108)
Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans – ADP 75
Deandre Hopkins has left town in Houston, and this leaves a big void to be filled. If we finally see Will Fuller play a full season, he could easily become the go-to wide receiver in this offense, despite the additions of Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb. Where Fuller has the advantage over the new guys is his familiarity, not only with the offense, but also with QB Deshaun Watson. Fuller is someone we know have been quite oft injured the past two seasons. However, we also know from previous years that Fuller and Watson can create fantasy fireworks, so I love taking a risk here and shoot for the massive upside that Fuller can present here in round 7 of my perfect draft.
Jordan Howard, RB, Miami Dolphins – ADP 91
Probably one of the un-sexiest draft picks you can make in the entire draft is Jordan Howard. Despite that, he is someone I have a bunch of shares in, because he is perfect for what we want at this point in the draft. He is one of the last, if not the last, starting runningbacks to go in drafts with an 8th round ADP. Until last season where he missed 6 games, he has never finished worse than RB20 in PPR, despite not catching the ball very well, and he has yet to see less than 7 TDs in a season, including last year where he only played in 10 games.
As the starting RB for the Dolphins, he could blow his ADP out of the water, and yet again finish as an RB2. As the third running back for our perfect draft, we can start Howard early on in the season, if we don’t feel comfortable with where Jonathan Taylor’s touches are at early on, and he is perfect as a fill-in for bye weeks too.
Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles – ADP 100
It is time for me to look at a quarterback, and here in round 9, Carson Wentz is the perfect mix of value and production. It will of course be predicated on him staying healthy, but Wentz is a very solid fantasy QB. In 2019, he was a QB1 in 50% of his games according to Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros. That is 8th best amongst QBs from last season, and exactly what I want from my QB. I’d rather go with the steady guy as my weekly starter than a boom/bust type like Daniel Jones, who I’m fading this season.
4. Round 10 to 12 (ADP 109-144)
Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons – ADP 112
One of the consensus breakouts at tight end this season, Hayden Hurst is great value to get a hold of in round 10. The Falcons are going to be one of the pass heaviest teams again this season and with 258 vacated targets, Hurst is going to get his fair share. Furthermore, Matt Ryan and Hurst has worked together in the offseason and reportedly there is already good chemistry there, which is good news for fantasy owners looking to acquire Hurst.
When drafting with more experienced fantasy owners, you might have to pull the trigger a bit earlier on Hurst if you really want to get him, but in home leagues he has a tendency to fall to somewhere around this ADP.
Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings – ADP 122
Primarily a handcuff who has little to no standalone value, Alexander Mattison is still someone worth drafting. First, we are still not sure what Dalvin Cook is going to do, without having a contract for next season in place. However, currently we do expect Cook to play. Second, even with Cook being the leader in the backfield, he has yet to play a full season and with the added unknown that is COVID this season, taking Mattison in the double digit rounds as someone who could become a starter in case Cook misses any time, is a gamble I’m willing to take.
Anthony Miller, WR, Chicago Bears – ADP 138
With an ADP that puts him square in the 12th round, Anthony Miller is part of my perfect draft. In 2019 he saw a significant target increase going from 54 as a rookie to 85 in his second season. The big problem was that his TDs fell from 7 to 2. He now projects to be the WR2 for the Bears and could see similar or larger target share.
The biggest concern for Miller is the quarterback play, but with Foles and Trubisky battling it out for the starting job, hopefully they can push each other, so that whoever ends up starting, will be better.
With better QB play, the potential for higher efficiency and more touchdowns is certainly there for Anthony Miller, and he could become a weekly flex starter at some point in the season if he reaches his ceiling.
5. Round 13 to 15 (ADP 145-180)
Desean Jackson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles – ADP 147
With most of the other receivers for the Philadelphia Eagles, Desean Jackson is far and away the best (and only?!) target on the outside for QB Carson Wentz. He is the perfect flyer to take at this point in the draft, as the ultimate high risk, high reward player.
Jackson is a player who does not need many targets to succeed for fantasy, but he also comes with significant bust-potential (and injury risk) if he does not get a long touchdown. Being just one of the few targets in the offense right now, his target floor could very well come up, mitigating some of that risk. I see Jackson as a tremendous flex play in Week 1 against Washington, who has no one that can keep up with his speed.
Blake Jarwin, TE, Dallas Cowboys – ADP 167
As is the case with Hurst for the Falcons, Blake Jarwin walks into a role with the Cowboys that could very well see him get 80 targets this season. The tight end position accounted for 126 targets last season in the Dallas offense between Jason Witten (83 targets) and Jarwin (41). With Witten himself gone, and a total of 190 vacated targets in the offense, expect a big increase in the number of targets that Jarwin is going to get in the 2020 season, and the upside of a top10 finish at the tight end position.
Cam Newton, QB, New England Patriots – ADP 175
One of my favourite late round QBs, getting Cam Newton late in drafts as my backup is amazing. We don’t know yet how he is going to look after coming back from injury and changing teams, but week 1 against the Dolphins could give us answers. I want Cam because he is a QB who can run with the ball and is likely the Patriots’ biggest goalline threat. As a result, he represents massive potential upside and someone who could end up being a league winner if he can return to fantasy form.
Thank you for reading my picks for the perfect draft. If you like our content here at RotoHeat, you should give our Youtube channel a like. We also have the RotoHeat Redraft Facebook Community that you can join to ask us questions and more.