Round One Rookie Drafts in the Past 10 Seasons
Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 79 of Sully’s 2 Cents Dynasty Fantasy Football podcast. I am your host Rob Sullivan.
So, a few episodes ago, episode 76 to be exact I discussed rookie fever, and I specifically used the 1.06 draft slot vs. Lamar Jackson. That episode it would appear accomplished a few things, 1. I was dead wrong on my Lamar Jackson value, and 2, it appears that you the listeners enjoyed it.
I am going to take that a little further and break down each draft slot in the first round, hit values and all. Today I tackle 1.01-1.06 and the next episode I will wrap it up with picks 1.07-1.12.
So, Just when you thought I was done rambling on about Hit rate metrics, here we go again. Quick refresher, A hit season is any QB that has had a top 12 season, RB that has had a top 24 season, top 36 season for WR, and top 12 for the TE’s. From 2010-2019 there were 779 skill position players drafted 120 were first round selections.
Dating back to 2010 there have been 5 RB and 5 WR selected in the 1.01 position. The average PPR points per season for the 1.01’s from 2010-2019 is 206.66 points. 249.68 for the running backs and 163.65 for the WR’s.
2010 – Dez Bryant
Dez played 8 seasons in Dallas and averaged 214.14 PPR a season. He finished as a top 12 WR 3 straight seasons from 2012-2014 included a career high 316 points in 2014. In total Dez had 4 hit seasons.
2011- AJ Green
Green delivered a hit season as a rookie in and every season after that until a 9-game injury shortened 2018 season. He has been a WR1 4 times and enters his 2020 season with a career average season total 233.25 PPR points
2012 – Trent Richardson
T-Rich was an RB1 in his rookie season posting 254.7 PPR points, on the strength of 11 touchdowns. After two games in his sophomore season he was traded from the Cleveland Browns to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2014 1st round pick that ended up being QB Johnny Manziel. T-Rich finished 2013 as RB32 and 2014 as RB36. IN 2015 he was waived by the Colts, signed with Oakland, and was released prior to the start of the season. Signed and released without appearing in a game in 2016 was the last we saw of him in the NFL.
2013- Tavon Austin
Austin started his career in St. Louis and after 5 seasons in St. Louis and Los Angeles, signed with the Cowboys for the past two seasons. His best season was 2015 in which he posted 907 total yards and 9 TD’s 104 touches. His WR28 season was the only hit season of his career to date in which he has averaged 98.19 points a season. If you selected Tavon Austin first overall in 2013 like many did, you made the worst 1.01 selection of the decade.
2014 – Sammy Watkins
In a star studded WR class it was Watkins that topped them all in ADP and was the 1.01 in 2014. Watkins was WR27 in 2014 and WR20 in 2015. He hasn’t delivered a hit season since as he has battled injures and has seen his mailing address change twice.
2015- Todd Gurley
Gurley has delivered a hit season in all 5 of his seasons including 3 RB1 seasons. In 2017 he was the top overall RB and in 2018 he was RB3 overall. Knee concerns and limited usage led to a RB14 finish in 2019 and his release from the Rams. Gurley returns home to Georgia in 2020 with the Falcons. Gurley’s average season to date has been 276.32 points
2016 – Ezekiel Elliott
Pretty straight forward stuff here with Zeke. 4 seasons in the league and 4 top 12 RB seasons. He has averaged 292.38 points per season, tops of all the 1.01 selections.
2017 – Corey Davis
Pretty straight forward for Davis as well. 3 seasons in and he is a disappointment . His WR28 finish in 2018 was cause for optimism, but his WR63 finish in a season where his offense was on fire is a warm glass of reality. Next to Tavon Austin, Davis is your biggest swing and miss here
2018 – Saquon Barkley
Barkley entered the league as a generational talent in 2018. In his first season he finished 385.8 points and as the top overall scoring running back. In 2019 limited by a high ankle sprain Barkley finished as the 10th highest scoring RB. Two years in with 314.95 average points a season, Barkley could end up the best pick of the 1.01’s.
2019 – Josh Jacobs
In his rookie season, Jacobs finished as RB21 with 191.6 points in 13 games. Promising start to his career. Off-season moves to add pass catching components to the Raiders backfield could limit his overall ceiling going forward.
All 10 of the 1.01 selections delivered at least one hit season, 7 of the 9 eligible to provide multiple hit seasons with only Tavon Austin and Corey Davis failing to do so. 7 of the 10 had hit rookie seasons, Dez Bryant, Austin and Davis were the three who did not. As excepted the 1.01 selection’s for the most part delivered.
With the 1.02 there were 6 RB’s selected and 4 WR’s. They combined to average 140.88 PPR points per season. The RB’s averaged 145.52 points per season and the WR’s 133.92
2010 – Ryan Matthews
Matthews played in parts of 7 seasons, he spent the first 4 seasons of his career in San Diego and finished with 2 in Philadelphia. He averaged 153.13 points per game and had 2 hit seasons 2011 (RB7), and 2013, (RB17). Injures derailed his career that concluded after the 2016 season
2011- Mark Ingram
2020 will be the 10th season of Ingram’s career. He started rather slow and didn’t post his first hit season until 2014. From 2015-2017 Ingram finished as a top 12 RB each season. A PED suspension cost him 4 games in 2018, and in 2019 he was right back to RB1 status in his first season in Baltimore.
2012- Doug Martin
Doug Martin burst onto the scene in his rookie season with 311.6 PPR points and a RB2 overall finish. He followed that season with 70.2 and 80.8 seasons before jumping back into the top 12 in 2015. Those tow seasons were the only hit seasons of his 7-year career.
2013 – Giovani Bernard
Gio started his career with three straight hit seasons as an RB2. He is a back that I kept waiting on to break out and well I still am. He hasn’t seen a hit season since 2015, and I think it is safe to say he wont again the rest of his career.
2014 – Mike Evans
Evans, another member of that star studded 2014 WR class has played in 6 seasons all with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Evans in those 6 seasons has averaged 246.70 PPR points a season, has been a WR1 twice and a WR2 4 times. If you grabbed Evans with your 1.02 in 2014 congratulations
2015 – Amari Cooper
Cooper in his 6 NFL seasons has surpassed 1000 yards receiving 4 times, twice with Oakland, once in his combined Oakland/Dallas season and again last season. He has averaged 212.78 points a season, been a WR1 once and a WR2 3 times. Cooper is another WR that if you selected him with the 1.02 should make you happy.
2016 – Laquon Treadwell
Not all 1.02’s are the same unfortunately or fortunately depending on how you look at Laquon Treadwell. As a Vikings fan I can assure you its unfortunately for me. Treadwell’s biggest fantasy season was 2018 a season in which he posted 71.23 PPR points. He has played in parts of 4 seasons and he is averaging 36.78 points a season. When someone references a top prospect that looks like a sure thing I mention Treadwell 9 times out of 10.
2017 – Leonard Fournette
Part of the best RB draft class I can remember, Fournette has sandwiched an injury plagued 120.4-point season with two RB1 seasons in 2017 and 2019. A hit in his rookie season in only 13 games, Fournette enters 2020 with an uncertain future. If you held onto him after 2017 and many didn’t, you should be able to count on one more bid season barring injury and with Fournette that is far from a sure thing.
2018 – Derrius Guice
If Guice could stay on the field, we might have something here. Tore his ACL in preseason in is rookie year and played in 5 games as a sophomore. He looked good in those 5 games and should be the primary guy in Washington in 2020. What he does remains to be seen. Needless to say, he is still in search of his first hit season.
2019 – N’Keal Harry
Harry’s rookie season was limited to 7 games and 5 starts as he dealt with injury early in the season. In those 7 games he averaged a lackluster 5.6 points and finished with 39.4 on the season. It’s only one season but it is starting to look like Harry is another cant miss prospect who may very well do just that.
7 of 10 of the 1.02 selections delivered at least one hit season, with Treadwell, Guice and Harry being the outliers. 7 of the 9 eligible to provide multiple hit seasons with again only Treadwell and Guice failing to do so. 5 of the 10 had hit rookie seasons, As excepted the 1.02 selection’s for the most part have delivered, a return on your draft capital.
With the 1.03 there were 4 RB’s, 5 WR’s and 1 TE selected. They combined to average 160.48 PPR points per season. The RB’s averaged 186.14 points per season the WR’s 144.64, and the TE 123.47. For what its worth the 1.03’s averaged more than the 1.02’s
2010 – CJ Spiller
Spiller played in 8 seasons entering the league with the Buffalo Bills. After two less than average seasons to start his career he exploded in 2012 with 1244 rushing yards, 459 receiving yards and 8 total touchdowns. That 255.3-point season was good nought for RB5 overall. In 2014 he regressed significantly and the remainder of his career he failed to regain the magic of 2012. The 2012 season was his only hit season and he failed to deliver more than a Rb60 finish from 2014-2016.
2011 -Julio Jones
If Julio Jones isn’t the best WR this past decade then he’s top 2 at worst. In his 9 seasons he has averaged 88 catches, 1347 yards and 6 touchdowns a season. Julio has delivered a hit season every year except for a 5 game 2013 season. He has a career average of 262.36 fantasy points a season.
2012- Justin Blackmon
In 14 games in his rookie season, Blackmon game us his only hit season. He finished the year with 64 grabs, 865 yards and 5 TD on route to a WR28 finish. In 2013 his season was limited to 4 games due to suspension for violating the leagues Policy and Program for Substance Abuse. Those 4 games were the last of his career. He failed to be reinstated in 2015, tried to play in Canada but the NFL blocked it, and interestingly enough he remains on the Jaguars team roster, on the reserve list.
2013 – DeAndre Hopkins
In Hopkins 7 seasons he has averaged 259.50 points a season and has been giving us hit season after hit season since 2014. His career high 331.1 in 2015 and somehow that was only good enough to be the WR4 that season. Recently gifted to Arizona to lay with Kyler Murray in the high octane Cardinals offense the hits should continue to roll for Hopkins.
2014 – Eric Ebron
Ebron was drafted by the Detroit Lions 10th overall in the 2014 NFL draft and went off the board at 1.03 in rookie drafts the same year. IN his 6 seasons Ebron has averaged 128.63 points a season and delivered back to back hit seasons in 2017 and 2018 as a member of the Indianapolis Colts. His 222.2 points in 2018 are a career high to date. Ebron is a Steeler entering 2020 and had a legit shot at another hit season
2015 – Kevin White
Kevin White played three seasons and his best season saw him total 38.6 ppr points in 2016. He ended up in the Arizona Cardinals camp in 2019 and was released before it ended. White could never get healthy as nagging leg injures halted his career before it even started. White goes down as one of the biggest busts of the decade.
2016 – Corey Coleman
After 3 productive years at Baylor, Coleman was the 1st WR off the board at pick 15 in the 2016 NFL draft. He spent two seasons in Cleveland and was traded to Buffalo during the filming of Hard Knocks for a 7th round pick. The Bills released him, and he made his way to the New York Giants after a brief pit stop in New England. IN camp in 2019 he tore his ACL and missed the season. In 3 seasons he has averaged 57.13 points a season. Coleman needless to say has been a bust so far in his career.
2017 – Joe Mixon
Another member of the amazing 2017 draft class. Mixon has delivered two hit seasons in his 3 NFL seasons. His second season he finished as a top12 back and the past two as a top 24. He has averaged 203.37 points a season. As the Bengals improve the offense around him, Mixon looks poised to deliver more hit seasons in the years to come
2018 – Nick Chubb
In two seasons in Cleveland, Chubb has averaged 224.85 fantasy points a season. His rookie season developed into a RB2 season, after he pushed Carlos Hyde out the door to Jacksonville. In his second season he finished as the RB8. Chubb saw his productivity drop once Kareem Hunt was activated from his suspension last season. His participation and productivity in a new offense with Hunt riding shotgun should limit him again but not prevent another hit season in 2020.
2019- Miles Sanders
In his rookie season, Jacobs finished as RB15 with 218.7 points. 2019 was a promising start to his career. A lack of offseason additions thus far to the Eagles backfield seems to indicate that Sanders is looking at an increased role in his second season.
8 of the 1.03 selections delivered at least one hit season, 4 of 9 did it multiple times. 5 of the 10 had hit rookie seasons. From 1.01 to 1.03 the single season hit rate has dropped 20%, multiple 34%, and rookie hot rate by 20%.
With the 1.04 there were 7 RB’s, 2 WR’s and 1 QB selected. They combined to average 171.49 PPR points per season. The RB’s averaged 164.6 points per season the WR’s 141.36, and the QB 280.93.
2010 – Javid Best
Best posted a hot season in his rookie year finishing as RB20 with 199 PPR points, he followed that season with a 112.7. He was placed on injured reserve prior to the 2012 season, and On July 17, 2013, Best was released by the Lions. The numerous concussions he suffered throughout his career prevented him from returning to the field during the 2012 season, an ultimately ended his career.
2011 – Ryan Williams
Williams was a second round pick out of Virginia by the Arizona Cardinals in 2011. During a pre-season football game, Williams suffered a ruptured patella tendon in his right knee which cost him the entire 2011 season.
On October 9, 2012, he was placed on injured reserve with a left shoulder injury, after playing in only 5 games. He was released on May 12, 2014. Williams ended up playing in one season and in that season, he put up 23.8 PPR points. It’s safe to say Williams was a complete bust as a first round rookie selection.
2012- Andrew Luck
Andrew Luck’s 7-year career was defined by injury. His 2015 season was limited to 7 games, and he missed the entire 2017 season. In the seasons in which he played a full season he was a QB1 every time. Luck averaged 280.93 fantasy points a season. In his 5 QB1 seasons he averaged 310.96 points a season. In 2014 he was QB2 overall, QB4 in 2016, and QB5 in his final season 2018. I wouldn’t suggest grabbing a QB at the 1.04 spot in a 1QB league but for a short period Andrew Luck was worth it.
2013 – Eddie Lacy
Eddie Lacy was here for a good time not a long time. He had back to back RB1 seasons in his first two seasons in Green Bay. He was RB6 in 2013 and in 2014 averaging 258.55 points a season. In 2015 he fell off to 140.6 points which was his next best season. In 2017 he was out of the league.
2014- Brandon Cooks
Yet another member of the rock solid 2014 WR class, Brandon Cooks has averaged 203.50 in his 6 seasons and has delivered 4 hit seasons which includes his lone top 12 season in 2016. He is on his 4th team in 7 seasons in 2020 and has some history with concussions. Hard to say how many hit seasons he has left
2015- Melvin Gordon
The San Diego Chargers selected Gordon in the first round with the 15th overall pick. His rookie season didn’t go as planned as he finished as the RB48 with 108.3 points. He failed to score a touchdown in his rookie season on 217 touches. From 2016 through 2018 Gordon put up three straight RB1 seasons. Only an ill-advised holdout could end his streak in 2019. IN 2020 he takes his talents to Denver and should be a key cog in a revamped Broncos offense.
2016- Josh Doctson
In 3 seasons Doctson averaged 79.2 points a season. As bad as he has been, he has still outproduced Corey Coleman and Laquon Treadwell. 2015 would have been a good year to have traded your 1round picks
2017 – Christian McCaffrey
I keep talking about the 2014WR class and the 2017 RB class, that continues here with the best of the 2017 RB’s. Christian McCaffrey has been a beast since day one in Carolina. Three straight RB1 seasons averaging 361.77 points a season. His 471.2 2019 was one of the best fantasy RB seasons in the history of fantasy football.
2018- Rashaad Penny
Penny was a rather odd 1st round selection for the Seahawks in the later stages of the 1st round in 2018. They decided to grab the running back with plenty of more pressing holes on both sides of the football. After an injury and some weight concerns in 2018 Penny was distant 2nd behind Chris Carson and ended the season as RB67 with 70.4 PPR points. In 2019 he suffered a serious knee injury I December and finished with 75.3 points a RB59 finish. It’s time to start worrying about Penny ever becoming a thing for fantasy.
2019- David Montgomery
Monty finished last season as RB24 with 170.4 PPR points. What makes that finish even more impressive than it looks is his rather odd usage in his rookie season. He averaged 17 touches a game which isn’t terrible, but his usage was wildly inconsistent almost to the point it seemed that Nagy forgot about him at times. I am looking for him to breakout in 2020, and to be a solid hot contributor for some years to come.
7 of the 1.04 selections delivered at least one hit season, 5 of 9 did it multiple times. 5 of the 10 had hit rookie seasons. Javid Best, Ryan Williams, and Josh Doctson clearly were disappointments and the short run from Lacey was as well.
With the 1.04 there were 4 RB’s, 5 WR’s and 1 QB selected. They combined to average 170.5 PPR points per season. The RB’s averaged 177.54 points per season the WR’s 173.46, and the QB 127.53.
2010 – Demaryius Thomas
In his 10 seasons, DT has averaged 206.87 fantasy points. He had four straight WR1 seasons form 2012-2015 and followed those with 2 WR2 seasons. His 6 hit seasons delivered those that selected him a nice return on their investment.
2011 – Greg Little
Little was drafted by the Cleveland Browns in the second round (59th overall) of the 2011 NFL Draft. He finished the 2011 season leading the Browns with 61 catches and 709 receiving yards. He was second among rookies in catches, behind A. J. Green and fifth in yards behind Green, Torrey Smith, Julio Jones, and Doug Baldwin. He also finished with two touchdowns. His 2011 season he finished as WR47.
In 2012, Little had 53 catches for 647 yards and a career-high four touchdowns, he finished as WR51.
The following season in 2013, he was WR73 and in 2014 his final season he was WR155 with 12.9 points in 6 games.
2012 – Robert Griffen III
RG3 was a QB5 in his rookie season, a QB18 in his second season, QB36 in year 3. Injuries and Mike Shanahan ruined this QB. He was out of football in 2015, appeared in 5 games for Cleveland in 2016, and was out of football again on 2017. He is currently the back-up to Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. IN total Jackson has averaged 117.34 fantasy points a season. Not what those who drafted him expected after putting up 319.5 in his rookie season.
2013 – Le’Veon Bell
Bell was a second-round selection of the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2013 out of Michigan State. In his rookie season Bell took hold of the backfield and finished as the RB15 with 219.8 points in 13 games. Bell exploded to 370.5 points in 2014, slipped back in 2015 after starting the season suspended and later injuring his knee. 2016 and 2017 he was back to the 300+ points. 2018 he sat out and 2019 as I had anticipated was a down season in NY, that said it was still a hit year. Bell is one of the best fantasy RB’s in the last 10 years and a great pick a the 1.05 in 2013.
2014- Odell Beckham Jr.
Back to our super 2017 WR class in OBJ. third WR off the board that season after Sammy Watkins, and Mike Evans. He started his career with 3 straight top 12 WR seasons, averaging 306.63 points in those seasons. He has struggled with injures throughout his career and in the last three seasons his average is 168.57 points a season. He has delivered a hit season in every season except for 2017, a season that was limited to only 4 games due to an ankle injury. He battled thru a full 16 game season a year ago with a sports hernia and returns healthy in 2020 in a new offense with a vastly improved offense I love this talent and expect quite a few more hit seasons in the coming years.
2015 – DeVante Parker
For those that have listened to this podcast from the start, you will all know this a WR that I do not like a while heck of a lot. If you drafted this dude back in 2015 and still had him on your roster in 2019 good on ya. I wish I could find the data on that, but I’d be willing to bet its less than 10%. IN his first 4 seasons Parker averaged 109.68 PPR points a season. IN 2019 he posted his first and only hit season with 246.2 points and a WR11 finish. Parker in the only 5th year breakout WR I can remember since well, ever.
2016 – Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry is another guy that I am not overly fond of. The main reason is I play primarily in PPR leagues and this cat just doesn’t catch passes. 2019 Henry caught a career high 18 passes. He started off slow in Tennessee and once they realized he was a beast of a ball carrier and finally gave him consistent work in 2018, he took off. His finish down the stretch in 2018 was epic. In weeks 13-16 he had 585 yards and 7 scores on 87 carries. He continued to dominate in 2019 finishing with 1540 yards and 16 scores. 2018 and 19 were hit seasons and that should continue here for a while, at least in 2020.
2017 – Dalvin Cook
2017 here again and this time it is Dalvin Cook. He delivered a RB1 hit season last year with 292.4 PPR points and thru three seasons has averaged 169.93 points a season while averaging only 9 games a season. Health is a legit concern with Cook dating back to college. With the revised zone blocking scheme brought into the offense in 2019 and the Vikings continuing to tweak the O line for the better, I expect the hits to keep on coming for Dalvin provided he is healthy.
2018 – Ronald Jones
In two seasons, Rojo has averaged 93.5 points per season. 20.7 in year one and a respectable 166.3 in year two. The recent addition of Ke’Shawn Vaughn is a strong indicator of what the Bucs think of Rojo in my opinion and he will struggle to be relevant in that offense. Perhaps an address change may elevate his hit season capabilities.
2019- DK Metcalf
Just finished a DK Metcalf 2020 Dynasty Outlook article for rotoheat.com and I am a big DK Metcalf fan. I liked DK heading into 2019 and like him even more after it. Metcalf had a hit season last year posting 187.1 points and I expect that trend to continue for years in Seattle.
8 of the 1.04 selections delivered at least one hit season, 4 of 9 did it multiple times. 4 of the 10 had hit rookie seasons.
In episode 76 the Rookie Fever episode and the episode that led to this two-part series I ran thru the 1.06 selections. If you missed that episode, I highly recommend listening to it. I’ll revisit it here but not to the extent we did there.
With the 1.04 there were 3 RB’s, 6 WR’s and 1 TE selected. They combined to average 117.69 PPR points per season. The RB’s averaged 104.92 points per season the WR’s 130.83, and the TE 77.19
2010 – Arrelious Benn
Benn was drafted in the second round, pick 39 overall, by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In two seasons in Tampa he combined for 55/836/5. He fantasy’s WR84 in 2010 with 80 PPR points, and WR80 in 2011 with 91.4.
Benn resurfaced in 2015 when he was singed by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
In 2016 and 2017 Been combined for 6/178/1 – 60 of which was on his lone TD. He was released in 2018 and his career appears to be over. His WR80 season in 2011 was the best finish of his career.
2011 – Mikel Leshoure
Leshoure was taken with the 57th overall pick in the second round of the 2011 NFL Draft by the Detroit Lions. On August 8, 2011, Leshoure tore his Achilles tendon in practice after a collision with Cliff Avril, and missed his entire rookie season.
After being suspended for the first two games of the 2012 season and missing his entire rookie season, Leshoure made his NFL debut in Week 3 against the Tennessee Titans. Leshoure had 26 carries for 100 yards and a touchdown. Leshoure finished 2012 as RB19 with 183.2 PPR points. We have a hit season and in his unofficial rookie season things are looking up for Leshoure owners.
He played in 3 game in 2013 saw 2 carries for 9 yards and that is it. RB156 with .9 PPR points.
2012 – Michael Floyd
The Arizona Cardinals selected Floyd in the first round (13th overall) of the 2012 NFL Draft. In 5 years at Arizona, his best season was 2013, a season in which he finished as the WR25 with 201.4 PPR points. In 2014 he was WR44, and in 2015 WR37.
His best season a 65 catch 1041-yard 5 TD campaign. It was his lone hit season.
2013 – Tyler Eifert
Eifert was selected in the first round with the 21st overall pick by the Cincinnati Bengals. In his rookie season he had 39 catches for 445 and 2 scores. TE26 95.5 PPR points and it appeared that the best was yet to come.
During the first game of the 2014 season, Eifert suffered a dislocated elbow. He was placed on injured reserve and ended up being out for the season. 1 game 3 catches 37 yards and a TE95 finish.
2015 and 2016 Eifert combined for 81 catches, 1009 yards and 18 TD’s. 2015 he was TE6 and in 2016 he was TE25 in only 8 games.
From 2016-2019, Eifert appeared in a total of 30 of a possible 64 games and his best season was last year 43/436/3, the only 16 game season of his career to date. He was TE19 last season and looks to continue his up and down career in 2020 in Jacksonville. To date the only hit season we have seen from Eifert was the 2015 season and I’d say its safe to say we won’t see anymore.
2014 – Bishop Sankey
The Tennessee Titans selected Sankey in the second round with the 54th overall pick, he was the first running back off the board.
In his rookie season he ran for 569 yards and 2 scores and added 18 catches for 133 more. He was the RB46 with 96.5 PPR points. In 2015 Sankey opened the 2015 season with a career-high 74 yards on 12 carries and one touchdown. The reminder of the season he totaled 118 yards on 35 carries in 12 games. Sankey was a complete bust.
2015 – Nelson Agholor
Agholor was selected by the Philadelphia Eagles in the first round with the 20th overall pick of the 2015 NFL Draft . His best season in Philly was 2017 a season in which he was WR22 with 193.5 PPR points after posting 62/769/8. In 2018 he was WR34, and 2019 WR76. Two hit seasons from Agholor, so far of the players measured he’s the most successful 1.06 selection.
2016- Sterling Shepard
Shepard was selected by the New York Giants in the second round with the 40th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft . He was the fifth wide receiver to be selected that year. Corey Coleman, Will fuller, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, were selected before him all in the first round. If that doesn’t make you a little queasy, I don’t know what will.
Shepard the best of the 5 by a mile has seen his career range from WR30 in 2018 to WR48 last season. Most of his career he has been a solid WR3 in fantasy football. Two hit seasons from Shepard his rookie season in 2016 and in 2018.
2017- Mike Williams
The Chargers selected Williams in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft with the 7th overall pick. Williams was the second wide receiver off the board.
He was limited in his rookie season due to a mild herniated disc in his lower back. He finished 2017 with 11 catches for 95 yards on only 23 targets. He finished as WR137 with 20.5 PPR points, a far cry from what the Chargers and his fantasy mangers were expecting.
In 2018 Williams appeared in all 16 game for the Chargers and posted a 43 catch 664-yard season with an impressive 10 touchdowns on 66 targets. On the strength of his 10 scores, Williams finished as WR32 with 180.2 points.
2019 was shaping up as a breakout season for Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams left via free agency, however Hunter Henry was back from a torn ACL. The Chargers were not a good football team in 2019 and as a result they trailed and threw often. Williams saw a career high 90 targets and a career low reception percentage (54.4%) hauling in only 49 of them. He went over 1000 yards for the first time in his career and his touchdown regression was significantly more than anticipated finishing with 2 just scores. Williams was WR41 with 161.30 points a year ago.
2018 – Sony Michel
Michel was selected by the New England Patriots in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft with the 31st overall pick. He was the third running back to be selected that year. The first two off the board were Saquon Barkley and Rashad Penny. The 4th back off the board was none other than Nick Chubb. I was a big Sony guy when he was coming out.
In his rookie season Sony finished as RB35 in PPR scoring. He followed that up last year with RB31 in ppr in 2019. Entering 2020, Michel is seeking his first hit season.
2019 – AJ Brown
He had a slow start in his rookie season and after the first six weeks, Brown was sitting at WR41.
In weeks 7-17, Brown averaged 12.6 points per game. When the Titans transitioned to Ryan Tannehill, Brown exploded to WR3 overall. When it was all said and done on 2019, Brown was the WR21 in PPR scoring and the WR15 in half PPR.
In 2020, I expect regression throughout the Titans offense. I do not expect Ryan Tannehill to maintain a top 3 QB pace, nor do I expect the same pace out of A.J. Brown.
8 of the 1.04 selections delivered at least one hit season, 4 of 9 did it multiple times. 4 of the 10 had hit rookie seasons.
Well that’s going to do it for this episode.
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I’ll be back with episode 80 next Friday.
Stay safe, and healthy Heat Seekers.