We are 6 weeks into the 2021 NFL Regular Season and now seems like a good time to take a look back at this year’s rookie class. Like any other year, this year’s rookie class is looking like it has some hits and some misses throughout the class. In this article, I will be redrafting the 2021 rookie class based on my Superflex rankings.
While going through my list of players, I was reminded just how talented this rookie class is. I have 10 players from this class in the top 42 in my overall Superflex rankings. At the bottom of the page I will include the top 24 players from other RotoHeat team members for comparison. Let’s jump right in to my list!
1. Trevor Lawrence – Quarterback Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence was one of the most lauded quarterback prospects in the last decade and as no surprise, he was selected 1st overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are sitting at 0-5 to start the season, and Lawrence hasn’t exactly helped the cause. So far Lawrence has had some very up and down stat lines. Lawrence has thrown for 1,465 yards (CMP 59.7%) with 7 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He has also added 121 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns.
While the start to Lawrence’s career has looked mediocre at best, I am still selecting Lawrence with the 1st pick when redrafting the 2021 rookie class. It’s difficult to be hard on Lawrence this early into his career, especially when the team around him is lacking offensive weapons paired with an atrocious defense. As the franchise builds around Lawrence in the coming seasons, I expect his production and efficiency to improve. I believe it would take a couple of years of awful production from Lawrence for his dynasty value to actually take a hit. Taking Lawrence number 1 is still the safest selection to hold value over the next two years.
My Dynasty Ranking: 10th overall, 6th quarterback
2. Najee Harris – Running Back Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris was the first running back selected in the 2021 NFL Draft when he was taken 24th overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Through 6 games, Harris has performed great for his fantasy owners as the 3rd running back overall in PPR Scoring. Harris has 632 total yards with 34 receptions and 4 touchdowns, good for an average of 20.2 PPG. Anyone who selected Harris early in their ’21 rookie drafts is reaping the reward of that decision now.
Najee’s role in the Pittsburgh offense is why he is scoring so well for fantasy purposes. Harris is playing 86.4% of Pittsburgh’s snaps so far this season, the most of any running back in the NFL. The offensive line and quarterback play in Pittsburgh have been subpar, to be kind, so far in 2021. Looking forward to the next couple of seasons, we should anticipate some improvement in both of the areas of the game for Pittsburgh, and that should only improve the overall efficiency of Harris.
When redrafting the 2021 rookie class a lot of fantasy owners would be selecting a young quarterback with their 2nd pick, but I prefer to go with the highest valued asset available, which is Harris.
My Superflex Ranking: 11th overall, 3rd running back
3. Kyle Pitts – Tight End Atlanta Falcons
The hype on Kyle Pitts throughout the draft process and the preseason were through the roof. When the Atlanta Falcons selected Pitts 4th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, he became the earliest tight-end draft pick ever. Pitts is starting his career off better than most rookie tight ends with 24 receptions, 308 yards, and 1 touchdown. That comes out to be an average of 12.16 PPG good for 9th overall at tight end through 6 weeks.
Matt Ryan is currently under contract through 2023 and releasing or trading him prior to June 1st would be a 40 million dollar cap hit for Atlanta. Pitts just turned 21 years old and has a bright future ahead of him. Selecting Pitts 3rd when redrafting the 2021 rookie class may be an unpopular opinion with quarterbacks like Lance and Fields still available, but finding a reliable tight end can be just as difficult as finding high upside quarterbacks.
My Superflex Ranking: 22nd overall, 1st tight end
4. Justin Fields – Quarterback Chicago Bears
Justin Fields made his first NFL start in Week 3 this season, and his production was disappointing to say the least. Through 6 weeks, with 4 starts under his belt, Fields has 632 passing yards and 2 touchdowns with 3 interceptions. Fields’ has also added 102 rushing yards and 1 touchdown giving him a pathetic average of 8.82 PPG in his 4 starts this season.
It appears that most Bears fans believe that a lack of overall talent on the roster, combined with a head coach in Matt Nagy, is holding back Fields from performing well in his rookie year. Fields’ early season struggles are not deterring me from his high-end valuation. With Nagy on the hot seat, it’s likely the Bears will have a new head coach in 2022, and their replacement will certainly be someone who can maximize the potential of Justin Fields.
My Superflex Ranking: 30th overall, 9th quarterback
5. Trey Lance – Quarterback San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers traded the 12th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and two future 1st round picks to the Miami Dolphins to move up to number 3 overall and select Trey Lance. Prior to the 2021 NFL draft, the 21 year old quarterback out of North Dakota State showed fantasy owners his ability to be a true dual-threat quarterback. Lance has incredible arm strength and the ability to add fantasy points with his legs. In his first NFL start, Lance threw for 192 yards and added 89 yards rushing on 16 carries. It appears that the 49ers want to capitalize on Lance’s rushing ability which made me consider selecting him as high as number 1 on this list.
Looking at 2022 and beyond, the future looks bright for Trey Lance. Having weapons like George Kittle and Deebo Samuel will help boost Lance’s passing game numbers while he still adds fantasy points through his rushing ability. Due to what the 49ers paid to move up for Lance, it’s likely that he will be given a couple of years to prove that he is the quarterback of the future for San Francisco. Lance is a high upside and high floor asset that has his fantasy owners feeling very optimistic for what the future may hold.
My Superflex Ranking: 32nd overall, 11th quarterback
6. DeVonta Smith – Wide Receiver Philadelphia Eagles
Most fantasy owners would have Ja’Marr Chase as their wide receiver one from the 2021 draft class. However, throughout the pre-draft process, I fell in love with DeVonta Smith’s skill-set. Through 6 games, Smith has 27 receptions, 345 yards, and 1 touchdown on 44 targets. Smith has a 22.1% target share and a 91.8% snap share proving the Eagles want to utilize their rookie wide receiver early in his career.
Jalen Hurts has been great against bad NFL defenses and sub-par against good NFL defenses through 6 weeks this season. If Hurts continues to play poorly anytime the Eagles play a team with a decent defense, it’s possible we get to see what Gardner Minshew looks like in that offense later this season. Either way, situations are so fluid, and whoever is under center in Philly will likely look Smith’s way often. As we get to see more of DeVonta Smith on the field, his value should continue to rise. My value on Smith is probably a little aggressive, but I believe in 12 months from now, this valuation won’t seem so high.
My Superflex Ranking: 34th overall, 12th wide receiver
7. Rondale Moore – Wide Receiver Arizona Cardinals
Before you all lose your mind for yet again not seeing Ja’marr Chase’s name being selected, hear me out. Rondale Moore was my wide reciever 2 behind DeVonta Smith throughout the entire scouting process. Rondale is an absolute freak of an athlete and I believe has the ceiling of being the number 1 overall wide receiver in fantasy football. Through 6 weeks, Rondale doesn’t have the stat line to compete with Chase, however there are a lot of positive signs for Rondale’s numbers to improve. Moore is #2 in catch rate, #11 in yards per route run, and #12 in target rate (targets per route run).
Moore is currently 4th on Arizona’s depth chart and has only played 42% of the team’s snaps. However, Moore has played very well in the small amount of playing time he has seen. A.J. Green and Christian Kirk are both unrestricted free agents next spring which will lead to Moore seeing a significant increase in playing time. Also, an injury to Hopkins, Green, or Kirk would also lead to a change in Moore’s role this season. Rondale may not see the playing time that Smith or Chase is getting through 6 weeks, but in dynasty we need to remember that situations can change at any time.
My Superflex Ranking: 35th overall, 13th wide receiver
8. Ja’Marr Chase – Wide Receiver Cincinnati Bengals
Finally, we see the prolific Ja’Marr Chase come off the board. I thought long and hard about moving Chase ahead of Smith and Moore for this piece. In terms of “dynasty value,” Chase would have easily been selected ahead of those players. However, this is an opinion piece based on how I value the 2021 class personally. Chase is 14th overall at wide receiver in my dynasty rankings currently.
There may not be a hotter name in dynasty fantasy football than Chase right now. Anyone who selected him in their rookie drafts this summer is drooling at the mouth anytime the Bengals are playing. Just like he showed in college, Chase has been electric when the Bengals need a big play. Chase’s fantasy owners are left without concern due to Chase being tied to his former college quarterback, Joe Burrow, for the coming seasons. Chase is as safe of a dynasty asset as you will find over the next few seasons.
My Superflex Ranking: 36th overall, 14th wide receiver
9. Travis Etienne – Running Back Jacksonville Jaguars
Urban Meyer and the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Travis Etienne with the 25th pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. Throughout training camp and preseason in Jacksonville, there were reports of Etienne lining up all over the field, including some snaps at wide receiver. Etienne’s skill-set is perfect for the modern-day NFL running back. He has 4.3 speed, excellent hands, and can turn any play into a home run, making him perfect for fantasy football. Etienne won’t be back until the start of the 2022 NFL season, and most fantasy owners have dinged him in their rankings due to this. However, due to Etienne’s immense upside, I have left him close to his pre-injury ranking.
Looking forward to the 2022 season and beyond, Etienne will be working closely with his college quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, and I can see Etienne benefiting from that. The Jaguars have a long way to go before they will be a competing team in the NFL. Likely to be playing from behind in a lot of their games, Etienne should see a high volume of targets in the passing game, keeping his fantasy floor high. James Robinson will likely still be in the mix next season, but Etienne’s ability in the passing game will keep him fantasy relevant.
My Superflex Ranking: 37th overall, 11th running back
10. Javonte Williams – Running Back Denver Broncos
Will Melvin Gordon just retire already? How many Javonte Williams owners have been screaming this sentence this year? Williams has looked good doing his part in Denver’s RBBC so far in 2021, producing 390 total yards on 14 receptions and 1 touchdown. Gordon has played 54% of the team’s offensive snaps and Williams has played 45%. As we get further into the 2021 NFL season, I expect Williams to be given more of an opportunity to showcase his skills.
Melvin Gordon will be an unrestricted free agent following this season, possibly leading to Williams seeing more volume in 2022 and beyond. Offenses that only utilize 1 running back are few and far between nowadays, but any increase in Williams’s playing time should result in him being a reliable RB2 or better. Javonte has the size and skills to be utilized in early-down work, the passing game, and goal-line situations. Being able to snag a running with Williams’ talent at pick 10 is an incredible value.
My Superflex Ranking: 42nd overall, 12th running back
11. Kadarius Toney – Wide Receiver New York Giants
Anyone who follows my work knows that I was extremely high on Kadarius Toney leading up to the NFL Draft and our rookie drafts. Toney was going in the mid-to-late 2nd round of Superflex drafts back in June, and he has seen quite the value increase early on in his rookie season. Toney’s ability to stop on a dime and create space is remarkable. In Toney’s three starts this season, he saw 25 targets, producing 303 yards on 19 receptions and 2 touchdowns–and that is with him leaving during the first drive of the Giants game in Week 6. It’s always encouraging to fantasy owners when a rookie produces immediately when given the opportunity.
The Giants’ wide receiver room in 2022 will be similar to this year’s group. Shepard, Slayton, and Golladay will all be back in New York next season, but with Toney’s early career production, he will likely be given a starting role. Now that Toney has gone down with an injury and may miss some time, this is the perfect time to buy him in dynasty.
My Superflex Ranking: 54th overall, 21st wide receiver
12. Jaylen Waddle – Wide Receiver Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins selected Jaylen Waddle 6th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft with the hopes that he could bring some life to one of the NFL’s worst wide receiver groups in 2020. Waddle has been given an amazing opportunity in Miami, and his early career targets are reflecting that. In 6 games, Waddle has seen 49 targets leading to 37 receptions for 301 yards and three touchdowns. Waddle has shown the ability to create space with his elite agility and great route running, and Miami’s quarterbacks have rewarded him for that.
Miami’s only talented receiver under contract for 2022 other than Waddle is Devante Parker. With Parker lining up on the outside, he won’t be in the way of Waddle continuing to receive high-end target volume. Waddle should head into 2022 as a high-floor, high-upside WR2 that fantasy owners will feel comfortable putting in their lineups each week.
My Superflex Ranking: 55th overall, 22nd wide receiver
13. Mac Jones – Quarterback New England Patriots
Mac Jones won the starting quarterback job in New England during training camp and preseason, beating out Cam Newton and immediately giving his fantasy owners another starting option in their Superflex leagues. I would be ranking Jones higher in my Superflex rankings if he had any rushing upside at all. So far in his rookie year, Jones is 26th in scoring at the quarterback position and has looked more like a game manager in most of New England’s contests.
Based on how Jones has looked in his rookie season, it appears that he will be more of a bye week fill-in for fantasy owners in 1QB formats and a low-end QB2 in Superflex formats. It is hard to find quarterbacks in dynasty, so getting a quarterback whose job is secure with a 2nd round rookie pick is a solid value.
My Superflex Ranking: 63rd overall, 15th quarterback
14. Zach Wilson – Quarterback New York Jets
The only positive thing I can come up with when referring to the Jets’ offense so far in 2021 is that it has improved in the last two games. Wilson and the Jets have looked pretty awful in their 5 games this season. Wilson is currently the 30th quarterback in fantasy scoring through 5 games and has been fairly unreliable for fantasy owners. I am still using an early 2nd round pick on Wilson with the hopes that he continues to improve throughout his rookie season.
The Jets’ main weapons in the passing game next season will be Corey Davis and fellow rookie Elijah Moore. It’s hard to predict how Wilson will look in the coming seasons, but with the draft capital the Jets spent on him, we can confidently say he will be under center next season. In Superflex formats, it’s nice to just have quarterbacks on your roster that we know will be starting week to week. Due to this, Wilson’s value will continue to hold in the range that it is now.
My Superflex Ranking: 65th overall, 17th quarterback
15. Kenneth Gainwell – Running Back Philadelphia Eagles
Kenneth Gainwell was my 4th ranked running back heading into rookie drafts in June. Gainwell was a classic example of when we as fantasy owners let draft capital make decisions for us instead of relying on the players’ college film. Before the NFL Draft, Gainwell was being selected as the RB4 in dynasty rookie drafts. After Gainwell had to wait until round 5 to hear his name called in the 2021 NFL Draft, fantasy owners were selecting him closer to RB6-RB9. Gainwell was being selected in round 3 of rookie drafts consistently, and I would be happy to spend an early 2nd round pick on him.
Gainwell is still working behind Miles Sanders, and over the last 2 weeks, Sanders snaps have increased leaving Gainwell to spend the majority of his time watching the game. Sanders is under contract for one more season in Philadelphia and I’m not sure that matters a whole lot. Due to Gainwell’s size, the Eagles likely keep an early-down back on their roster if Sanders decides to test free agency in 2023. There are a lot of unknowns in the Eagles’ offense moving forward, so it’s hard to project where that will leave Gainwell’s production.
My Superflex Ranking: 84th overall, 22nd running back
16. Terrace Marshall Jr. – Wide Receiver Carolina Panthers
Does Sam Darnold throw to anyone other than D.J. Moore? It certainly doesn’t seem like it. I will be honest, I haven’t gone back and watched Carolina’s games from this season, so I’m not sure if Moore is getting all the volume because Marshall and Anderson aren’t open, but it’s always concerning when a rookie wide receiver is getting good playing time but not producing. I considered moving my 19th overall rookie (Freiermuth) ahead of this group of wide receivers due to their lack of early-season production. Marshall has played 57% of the Panthers’ snaps this season and has only seen a concerning 22 targets through 6 games.
The Panthers’ have a 5th-year option to use on D.J. Moore in 2022, and it’s unlikely that they let him walk in 2023. Robby Anderson is signed through 2023, so the pathway to consistent fantasy-relevant targets for Marshall is looking questionable in the future. I decided to have Marshall as my 16th player selected in my redrafting of the 2021 rookie class due to his size and speed combination. Is it possible we are looking at the next Denzel Mims? Maybe. But I am holding on to hope that Marshall takes a step forward in the offseason and becomes a more important piece of the Panthers’ offense next season.
My Superflex Ranking: 85th overall, 35th wide receiver
17. Elijah Moore – Wide Receiver New York Jets
This is the same story as Terrace Marshall Jr., just a different team and skill-set. As I mentioned when writing about Zach Wilson, the Jets’ offense has been tough to watch this season. Elijah Moore has seen 20 targets in the 4 games he has played this season and has been running as the number 2 receiver in the offense. Moore has a clearer pathway to fantasy production than the aforementioned Marshall, but I’m not sure that I trust the Jets’ offense or Zach Wilson to help provide that production.
Barring any crazy off-season changes, Moore and Corey Davis will be running as the top two options in 2022 as well. Moore’s target volume should be solid with the Jets playing catch up in a lot of their contest. Hopefully Moore can turn those targets into more production than he has in 2021.
My Superflex Ranking: 86th overall, 36th wide receiver
18. Rashod Bateman – Wide Receiver Baltimore Ravens
Ranking Bateman at 18 in this piece may come back to bite me. With all of the running back injuries, the Ravens have suffered in 2021 as their offense has been much more pass friendly. Bateman profiles as an alpha wide receiver and should fit into this offense well alongside Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews. Fantasy owners are anxiously awaiting Bateman’s NFL debut and we should see it very soon.
The reason I am hesitant with Bateman’s dynasty outlook is I believe the Ravens’ pass-friendly offense this season may be an anomaly. I think the Ravens want to win football games with their defense and running game, and even if Bateman sees consistent target volume when he returns from injury, I believe they revert to the run-heavy offense we have been accustomed to since Lamar Jackson was drafted by Baltimore. That being said, if Bateman performs well this season, dynasty owners could see a value bump and solid sell window this off-season.
My Superflex Ranking: 127th overall, 53rd wide receiver
19. Pat Freiermuth – Tight End Pittsburgh Steelers
I am probably not high enough on Freiermuth, having him ranked at 131st overall in my Superflex dynasty rankings. Freiermuth has looked like the best tight end option in the Pittsburgh offense so far this season. Through 6 games, Freiermuth has seen 20 targets with a season high 7 targets in Week 6. With JuJu Smith-Schuster missing time due to injury, the Steelers could be leaning on Freiermuth over the middle of the field more often. If his targets continue to increase, Freiermuth’s dynasty value could see a rise in the coming weeks.
Freiermuth’s main competition for snaps has been tight end journeyman Eric Ebron who is an unrestricted free agent in 2022. Freiermuth is already playing more snaps than Ebron (201 to Ebron’s 185), and as the season progresses I expect that trend to continue. The Steelers will likely re-sign Ebron or find another cheap tight end in free agency next season, but I expect Freiermuth’s snap share to continue trending upward.
My Superflex Ranking: 131st overall, 13th tight end
20. Chuba Hubbard – Running Back Carolina Panthers
Heading into rookie drafts last June, I ranked Chuba Hubbard as my number 5 prospect at running back. Six weeks into the 2021 NFL season and that decision has paid off due to injuries to Panthers’ lead back, Christian McCaffrey. In Hubbard’s 3 starts, he has accumulated 270 total yards with 8 receptions and he has scored 1 touchdown while playing a majority of the snaps at running back. I am hopeful that when CMC misses time, Hubbard gets more involved in the Carolina passing attack.
I chose not to select Hubbard until pick 20 in my redrafting of the 2021 rookie class because his path to fantasy-relevant volume will be dependent on the health of Christian McCaffrey. In weeks where McCaffrey is healthy and in the lineup, Hubbard will need to stay on your fantasy team’s bench. But given his usage, anytime McCaffrey misses time, Hubbard will be a sure-fire starter in your lineup.
My Superflex Ranking: 132nd overall, 30th running back
21. Michael Carter – Running Back New York Jets
Michael Carter had a lot of buzz during dynasty rookie draft season because of the lack of options in the Jets’ backfield. It has been a slow start to the 2021 season for Carter, but a lot of that is due to the overall poor play of the Jets offense. Carter has 229 total yards with 9 receptions and 2 touchdowns through 5 career NFL games. There is still a lot to be desired from Carter, but as the offense in New York improves, Carter’s efficiency should improve as well.
The New York Jets don’t have much in terms of options at running back outside of Carter. This could be a good sign for his 2022 outlook, or it could mean that the Jets bring in more talent at the position via free agency or the NFL Draft. I am hesitant on Carter’s future outlook, but in the right situation, I believe his skill-set can thrive.
My Superflex Ranking: 133rd overall, 31st running back
22. Elijah Mitchell – Running Back San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers selected Elijah Mitchell in the 6th round of the 2021 NFL Draft, and due to numerous injuries in their backfield, Mitchell has been thrust into a prominent role. Like every other 49ers running back, Mitchell has also missed time due to early-season injuries. Elijah is expected back in the lineup this week against the Colts, and if he performs well he can likely keep a major role in the run game for the rest of this season.
The future of the 49ers backfield is very much up in the air. Given his opportunity this season, Mitchell has a chance to win the starting role in future seasons. If Mitchell plays well this season, I will have to move him up in my rankings. Good young running backs are so hard to find in fantasy football, and we may be looking at one with Mitchell.
My Superflex Ranking: 140th overall, 35th running back
23. Kylin Hill – Running Back Green Bay Packers
After watching Kylin Hill’s college film, I had him listed as my RB6 in this class behind only Harris, Etienne, Williams, Gainwell, and Hubbard. When I was redrafting the 2021 rookie class, I dropped Hill down to my RB8 because of the path to playing time for two other rookies. All off-season, all reports out of Packers camp on Hill were encouraging. He is a talented player, and an injury to Dillon or Jones would allow for him to showcase that skill-set.
Aaron Jones is under contract through 2024 and A.J. Dillon until 2023, making the path to playing time for Hill very difficult. Selecting Hill with the 23rd pick in this redraft is simply due to his skill-set. I believe in Hill’s abilities and even though he will need an injury to Dillon or Jones to get on the field, once fantasy owners see him out there, his value as a handcuff should increase.
My Superflex Ranking: 146th overall, 36th running back
24. Davis Mills – Quarterback Houston Texans
Due to the Deshaun Watson chaos and an injury to Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills has started for the Houston Texans in Weeks 3-6. During those 4 games, Mills has completed 66% of his passes for 810 yards with 4 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Mills looked like a rookie quarterback in a hostile road environment in Week 4 when he threw 4 interceptions and the Texans lost 40-0. On the bright side, Mills had a great bounce back game in Week 5, shredding the Patriots’ defense for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Unless Davis Mills continues to put more games like Week 5 on film, it’s likely that Tyrod Taylor will take over once again at quarterback when he returns from Injured Reserve. Given Mills’ great performance in Week 5 and his 3rd round draft capital, there is a chance that the Texans go back to Mills towards the end of the season. The Texans will be drafting early in the 2022 NFL Draft, and its possible that they draft a quarterback, but with young starting quarterbacks hard to come by in Superflex leagues, Davis sneaks on the list of redrafting the 2021 rookie class.
My Superflex Ranking: 176th overall, 30th Quarterback
RotoHeat team members rankings for Redrafting the 2021 Rookie Class.
1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Ja’Marr Chase
3. Trey Lance
4. Justin Fields
5. Mac Jones
6. Najee Harris
7. Zach Wilson
8. Kyle Pitts
9. Javonte Williams
10. Jaylen Waddle
11. DeVonta Smith
12. Kadarius Toney
13. Elijah Mitchell
14. Rondale Moore
15. Elijah Moore
16. Amon-Ra St. Brown
17. Michael Carter
18. Travis Etienne
19. Davis Mills
20. Kenneth Gainwell
21. Terrace Marshall Jr.
22. Pat Freiermuth
23. Chuba Hubbard
24. Trey Sermon
1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Justin Fields
3. Trey Lance
4. Kyle Pitts
5. Ja’Marr Chase
6. Najee Harris
7. Mac Jones
8. Zach Wilson
9. Jaylen Waddle
10. DeVonta Smith
11. Rondale Moore
12. Javonte Williams
13. Rashod Bateman
14. Elijah Mitchell
15. Terrace Marshall Jr.
16. Michael Carter
17. Kadarius Toney
18. Chuba Hubbard
19. Kenneth Gainwell
20. Elijah Mitchell
21. Rhamondre Stevenson
22. Amon-Ra St. Brown
23. Anthony Schwartz
24. Pat Freiermuth
Thank you for reading “Redrafting the 2021 Rookie Class – 24 Valuable Picks”
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