Emotions and loyalty are for suckers. You have to GM your fantasy team with a cold heart and a stone face–with the kind of attitude where you need to carry around a broom and dustpan if you were to crack a smile. I own and manage my fantasy team the same way Belichick coaches the Patriots. Do you think Belichick cared about how Drew Bledsoe felt after he recovered from life saving surgery? In Bledsoe’s absence, Brady lead the Patriots to first place and a bye in the playoffs and thus lost his job because he got hurt fighting for an extra yard for his team. 

 That is why I rename all the players on my roster with a nickname. It allows me to separate my emotions from the game and think of my players as currency. I never buy on name value, but always sell when the hype gets real. The players name is worth more than the player itself. A great fantasy owner cannot care about what a player has done for them in the past; they only need to care about what that player can do for them in the future.

*Pro Tip: Refrain from naming your team using a player from your roster. It creates an emotional tie that is harder to break.

Four players come to mind that are must sells if you can find the right buyer. Remember, as with all deals, you need to find that emotionally attached sucker–the one that is going to overpay because of name or past-production. These players still have great value and can/would help sail your team toward winning the ship, but this is dynasty. You need to target the players/assets that can lead you to the promise-land, not only this coming season, but help your team years beyond that. 

Christian McCaffery

Players to Sell High in Dynasty Fantasy Football 1

I am sure you have all read Rick Butts “Curse of 400 Touches,” and if you haven’t, open up a new tab and do that now. That article alone will make you want to cash out at the right price. Towards the end, he mentioned a few other things besides just the efficiency regression, and I wanted to hit on that more.  We all know running backs do not last long in the NFL, but if you were to guess the top-12 RBs from 2016, you might have some trouble. Here is a list of the top-12 just three years ago: David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Devonte Freeman, Melvin Gordon, Mark Ingram, LaGarrette Blount, Jordan Howard, Jay Ajayi, Frank Gore, and Latavius Murray. Granted, a couple of those guys might have helped you win this year, but they are all mostly depreciating assets. 

The Panthers have hired Matt Rhule as head coach and Joe Brady as OC. I do believe Brady will have a positive impact on the roster, but I am more excited for what players like Ian Thomas and Curtis Samuel might do under Brady’s scheme. He will get the most out of the weapons on his team which I think will mean more of an equal market share and taking what the defense gives him. 

The biggest reason to sell McCaffrey right now is what you get in return. I have never seen a player get so much in return. Send McCaffrey out to your whole league and let them drive his price up.  Here are some recent trades of McCaffrey as documented by dyanstyleaguefootball.com (1QB, PPR)…

Team ATeam B
Christian McCaffreyPatrick Mahomes
Matt RyanCooper Kupp
Amari Cooper
2020 1.02
2021 First Round
Team A Team B
Christian McCaffreyJoe Mixion
Terry McLaurin
2020 1.01
2020 1.09
Team ATeam B
Christian McCaffreySaquon Barkley
Terry McLaurin
Justice Hill
2020 Second Round
Team ATeam B
Christian McCaffreyDerrick Henry
AJ Brown
DJ Moore
2020 1.01
2020 1.07
*Imagine being Team B and then flipping Henry for Mile Sanders plus some.

Chris Godwin

Players to Sell High in Dynasty Fantasy Football 2

Chris Godwin stock skyrocketed this year as he and Mike Evans both finished inside the top five on a points/game basis. So why in the world would you sell Chris Godwin? The answer is simple; he is worth more now than he will ever be. Godwin had a hell of a year, but he did it on almost 9 targets a game. I don’t see that number rising with Mike Evans under contract through 2023, and players like Breshad Perriman breaking out. Perriman could very well be on another team in 2020, however TEs OJ Howard and Cameron Brate are under contract and still see work, though not as much under an Arians system. 

One thing I hate about Godwin is the question mark under center. As much as Winston frustrated Tampa Bay fans, he was great for owners of Bucs WRs. He was not afraid to sling it and his turnover rate kept the game flow in favor of passing. The final and most alarming sell-point about Godwin is history. There has been five relevant instances (there were three more, but injuries and changing teams did not allow them to be factored into the study) in the last 8 years where two WRs from the same team have finished in the top 12. Of those five times, 0 of the tandems repeated in the top-12 together and only 2 WRs ended in the top 12 the following year. 

Chi: A. Jeffery 2013- WR 817.7 ppr/g2014- WR 1016.4 ppr/g
Chi: B. Marshal2013- WR 519.1 ppr/g2014- WR 3513.8 ppr/g
Den: D. Thomas2014- WR 221.3 ppr/g2015- WR 1116.7 ppr/g
Den: E. Sanders2014- WR 518.0 ppr/g2015- WR 1915.0 ppr/g
GB: J. Nelson 2016- WR 219.0 ppr/g2017- WR 469.8 ppr/g
GB: D. Adams2016- WR 915.4 ppr/g2017- WR 1415.9 ppr/g
Minn: A. Thielen2018- WR 719.2 ppr/g2019- WR 64 11.4 ppr/g
Minn: S. Diggs2018- WR 1017.8 ppr/g2019 WR 2414.1 ppr/g
LA: B. Cooks2018- WR 1316.2 ppr/g2019 WR 628.4 ppr/g
LA: R. Woods2018- WR 1116.6 ppr/g2019 WR 1415.5 ppr/g

Here is some recent trades of Godwin as documented by dyanstyleaguefootball.com in a 1 QB, PPR format…

Team ATeam B
Chris GodwinDavante Adams
Robby AndersonTerry McLaurin
Team ATeam B
Chris Godwin2020 1.02
2020 1.05
2020 Third Round
Deebo Samuel
Team ATeam B
Chris GodwinMichael Thomas
Paris Campbell

Darren Waller

Players to Sell High in Dynasty Fantasy Football 3

There are many red flags when it comes to Waller. First off, Waller is 27 years old and has been suspended twice for drug violations. Even though Waller is a great athlete whom the coaches praise, he does disappear from the game plan often. In weeks 9-12, Hunter Renfrow’s targets increased and that directly related to a drop in Wallers production. When Oakland adds another WR early in the draft, and allows Jacobs and his healthy shoulder to catch more passes, I could see Waller’s value to continue to drop. 

We need to look at Wallers contract to further understand why I believe he is a player we all should cash out on. Yes, he himself “cashed in” last October with his strong start, but if you look into the contract details there is no guaranteed money. He has zero dead cap hit if the team decides to move on from him. If he under performs or Foster Moreau comes back healthy, they can cut or trade Waller without blinking an eye.  

Here is some recent  trades of Waller as documented by dyanstyleaguefootball.com in a 1 QB, PPR format…

Team ATeam B
Darren WallerDeVante Parker
2020 Third Round
Team ATeam B
Darren WallerAustin Hooper
Team ATeam B
Darren WallerDalvin Cook
Rashaad Penny2020 1.07
Mark Ingram

Alvin Kamara

Players to Sell High in Dynasty Fantasy Football 4

Before you all start commenting about how bad of a take this is on Kamara, please hear me out. I love Kamara as a player, but if I currently owned him, I would be nervous as hell. Lucky for those Kamara owners he shined late in the season when needed, but please don’t be fooled. Kamara has been the epitome of an overachiever his first two seasons in the league. Using Mike Clay’s TD stats, he scored 10 more TDs than expected over those two seasons. In 2019 Kamara finally regressed to the mean and that is where I am afraid he will stay. As shown by the chart below, a rushers chance to score increases greatly when he get carries inside the five yard line. Kamara only had 7 carries all year inside the five. That puts him at 28th best and tied with Dare Ogumbawalie on attempts inside the five. 

Players to Sell High in Dynasty Fantasy Football 5

The Saints know he can’t handle a full workload as they have Murray signed through 2023, Taysum Hill is emerging as a threat to take away usage, Brees is a UFA this year, and Kamara himself is a UFA in 2020. These are the reasons why I believe you should want to sell, and honestly, we all should have sold last year. I believe this is your last opportunity to sell Kamara for what his name value can bring. If you wait too long you might miss your window and have to settle on holding him or letting him go for a lot less. Do not sell for pennies on the dollar, but actively shop him to every member of your league. There will be some sucker that will bite remembering what Kamara was.

Here is some recent trades of Kamara as documented by dyanstyleaguefootball.com in a 1 QB, PPR format…

Team ATeam B
Alvin Kamara2020 1.2
2020 1.3
Deebo Samuel
Robby Anderson
Team ATeam B
Alvin Kamara2020 1.1
2020 Second Round
Miles Sanders
Team ATeam B
Alvin KamaraDalvin Cook
2021 Second RoundAlexander Mattison
Marvin Jones
2020 Second Round

Others to Consider

When starting this article I wanted to add Derrick Henry and Raheem Mostert to the list, but they are being brought up as must sells in many different forums. The “must sell” publicity those players are getting is driving their price so low it might be hard to find that sucker that will over pay. I would still love to cut bait on Henry and Mostert prior to the 2020 season for the right price, but that will be hard to find, and they might be better to keep on your roster and make a run for the title. The other option is to ship them out before the trade deadline to a contender if you think you missed the playoffs. Their stock should be the highest on Sunday during the Super Bowl or the week(s) leading up to the NFL draft and your rookie draft. 

Remember it is better to sell a year too early than a year too late!