Need Someone to Weigh in On Your Latest Football Bet? Just Ask Joe!
Welcome back, folks! Week 8 showed us that the NFL season is truly a week-to-week league. One week after looking like the worst team in football, the New England Patriots go on the road and beat a Jets team riding a four-game winning streak. These games are so hard to pick, especially against the spread.
As for my picks in Week 8, I felt fortunate enough to survive with a winning record, going 8-7 against the spread and 11-4 straight up. Comparing my picks to those of 8 experts at CBS (making picks against the spread), I was in the middle of the pack once again.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Proud Of
The Lions are still the Lions. Even when they had the big early lead against Miami, I just knew they would find a way to blow it. And they did just that.
Moreover, when Ryan Tannehill was declared OUT for the Titans’ game against the Texans, I considered changing my pick to the Texans, who were at home.
In the end, I stood pat, as I felt like these teams are heading in opposite directions. The Titans are well-coached and have shown the ability to adapt.
Even with an ultra-conservative game plan (designed to protect their rookie signal-caller), the Titans ran roughshod over the Texans as I thought they would.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Ashamed Of
There were so many games this week that I would like to have back. But the one that sticks out in my mind most is the Patriots versus the Jets. I should have known better.
The Patriots have absolutely owned the Jets over the years. And stud rookie RB Breece Hall was injured last week and is gone for the year.
Somehow, I thought that the Jets may be starting to turn the corner. But, alas, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
It would not surprise me if the Jets’ season went south after losing to their nemesis at home. QB Zach Wilson was awful last week. And truth be told, he did not look particularly good even during their winning streak.
Without Breece Hall, I am not sure how we can trust the Jets to manufacture winning plays week in and week out.
Overall Record Against the Spread: 67-54-2; Overall Record Straight Up: 70-53
So, with Week 8 in the books, it is time to start thinking about Week 9’s slate of games. Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 9 of the 2022 season.
All odds courtesy of bet365 (as of November 1, 2022).
Philadelphia (-13) at Houston
It feels like Philadelphia has had a cupcake of a schedule. Each week, they play an opponent they should humiliate.
There is no chance that Philly loses this game. The only real question here is how much they will win by.
If the Titans can go into Houston with a rookie QB and destroy the Texans, then the Eagles should definitely be able to as well.
Pick: Eagles to win and cover the spread.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Atlanta
The Falcons are playing hard and winning games. But they have been quite fortunate in some of their wins.
The Chargers, who are as talented as anyone in the NFL, are an inconsistent team that has been plagued by injuries again this season.
Even so, the Chargers are coming off a BYE and a humbling loss the week before. They really need to put up or shut up this week. I think they come out guns a-blazing in this one.
Pick: Chargers to win.
Miami (-5) at Chicago
The Bears’ offense has shown life recently. But their defense looked terrible at Dallas last week.
With a healthy Tua, I think the Dolphins can go into Chicago and assert themselves.
Pick: Dolphins to win and cover the spread.
Carolina at Cincinnati (-7.5)
Since Matt Rhule was fired, the Panthers have played some spirited football. And they really should have won again last week. Did I ever mention how much I dislike kickers?
This is a tricky game to pick. On the surface, most people will surely like the Bengals at home. But the Panthers’ defensive front has the horses to give the Bengals offensive line problems in this one.
And without the home-run threat of Jamar Chase (who is on IR), this game could be a lot closer than people think.
P.J. Walker, who is proving to be an upgrade over Baker Mayfield at QB, is making the most of his opportunity. I like for the Panthers to do enough to at least keep this one close.
However, I reserve the right to change this pick later in the week. The Panthers are clearly sellers as the trade deadline zooms. And it would not surprise me if key contributors like WR D.J. Moore and/or DE Brian Burns were shipped off this week.
Pick: Bengals to win, but Panthers against the spread.
Green Bay (-3) at Detroit
With four straight losses, the Packers are ripe for the picking. Even so, I have my doubts that the Lions are the team to take advantage of it, even at home.
Until the Lions demonstrate that they can close out teams, I will have to take their opponents. As far as the Packers have fallen, I have to believe they will resurrect themselves to at least contend for a wild card.
Pick: Packers to win and cover the spread.
Las Vegas (-1) at Jacksonville
I have had trouble picking these two teams all year. So, whatever I pick here, bettors might want to consider taking the opposite team.
Both teams are absolutely desperate for a win. And while the Jags are at home, I just think they do not know how to close out games.
And from what I can see, much of the blame should be attributed to the disappointing play of QB Trevor Lawrence down the stretch of close games.
Pick: Raiders to win.
Indianapolis at New England (-5.5)
Although I do not think the Patriots are a particularly good team, this is a match up they can and should win.
RB Jon Taylor left last week’s game early, and his status for Week 9 is currently unknown. Even if he plays, it should be easy enough for the Pats to key on the Colts’ running game with Sam Ehlinger at the helm.
The Pats are at home, and Bill Belichick is their coach. That is why I like them to take care of business in this one.
Pick: Patriots to win and cover the spread.
Buffalo (-13) at New York Jets
The Jets were the early feel-good story of the season. After years of ineptitude, they were winning games and had a legit star on offense that other teams feared.
Now, with Breece Hall out the rest of the year and QB Zach Wilson continuing to struggle, the Jets are staring down the barrel at consecutive intra-divisional losses.
Buffalo is the best team in the league and will destroy the Jets, even on the road.
Pick: Bills to win and cover the spread.
Minnesota (-3) at Washington
The Vikings are showing they are a legit contender in the NFC this year. And the Taylor Heinicke-led Commanders have reeled off consecutive wins. Something has to give in this one.
I like for the Vikings to keep their winning streak alive, and for the Commanders to come back down to earth in this one.
However, it will not be easy. I expect Washington to give Minnesota all they can handle for three quarters. But ultimately the more talented Vikings will pull away.
Pick: Vikings to win and cover the spread.
Seattle at Arizona (-1.5)
I mentioned above that the NFL season is a week-to-week proposition. Thus, I am going to follow my own advice here.
The Cards are desperate and at home. If they do not win these kinds of games, it is hard to see how they will even contend for a wild card spot in the NFC.
Pick: Cards to win.
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay (-3)
A showdown between two of the most disappointing NFC teams this year. This is a hard one to call.
With the players they lost in the offseason, I can see why the Rams have been struggling.
However, with the Bucs, it is a bit harder. Even though they have gotten healthier, the Bucs continue to drop games to seemingly inferior opponents.
The Rams seem to have the Bucs’ number, and I see no reason to think it will not continue this week.
Pick: Rams to win.
Tennessee at Kansas City (-12.5)
The Titans have the horses to grind out yards on the ground. And, thus, they are as equipped as anyone to keep Mahomes off the field.
Even so, with a gimpy Tannehill (or a not-yet-ready rookie QB), the Titans are more one-dimensional than usual.
At home, this is Kansas City’s game to lose. And if they can get an early lead, things could snowball and get out of hand. The Titans will have a hard time keeping up in this one.
Pick: Chiefs to win and cover the spread.
Baltimore (-3) at New Orleans
Just when it looked like the Saints were throwing in the towel on their season, they come out and destroy the Raiders in Week 8.
It will be interesting to see what happens at the trade deadline and whether stud RB Alvin Kamara remains on the team.
Even if he stays put, the Saints have so many injuries and no real answer at QB. The Ravens are a good team and should find a way to beat a Saints team still searching for their identity.
Pick: Ravens to win and cover the spread.
Thank you for reading “NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread: Just Ask Joe!” I really enjoyed speculating about these games, and hope I was able to shed a little light.
Make sure to hit me up on Twitter or Facebook with any comments and/or to simply tell me how wrong I was. For more analyses, check out our website (and especially the part that deals with betting) and/or join us on Discord.