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NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread: JUST ASK JOE! 8

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Welcome back, folks! Week 6 was the first to usher in BYEs this season. As in previous weeks, we saw some massive upsets. I don’t think many people envisioned the Jets, Falcons, and Steelers upsetting the Packers, Niners, and Bucs, respectively.

Nonetheless, after a rough Week 5, I bounced back a bit in Week 6 going 8-6 against the spread and 6-8 straight up. Comparing my Week 6 picks to those of 8 experts at CBS (making picks against the spread), I was tied for second. Overall, for the season, I am leading the pack by 5 games.

And, while I include straight up picks in this column for fun, the picks against the spread are really the only ones that count because they have stakes. In other words, those are the ones that bettors truly care about.

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The Pick(s) I Am Most Proud Of

All week long, I kept track of the Saints and their injury situation. Once it was clear that Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Marshawn Lattimore, etc. would not play, I changed my pick.

In the past when I changed picks right before the game, I generally got burned. So, it was nice to see it work out in my favor this time. The Bengals covered the spread by a point. Fortunately, I was on the right side this time.

I suppose I am also a bit proud that I did not succumb to my emotions and take my Cowboys to beat our arch rival Eagles. In my heart, I knew it was just too much to ask Cooper Rush to go into Philadelphia and beat an undefeated (and healthy) Eagles team.

The Pick(s) I Am Most Ashamed Of

I probably should not have picked the Browns so confidently to beat and cover the spread at home against the Patriots.

QB Jacoby Brissett has generally played his role well this season. However, the more I watch him play, the more I am reminded of his limitations.

In this game, rookie QB Bailey Zappe thoroughly outplayed Brissett, and that was the difference. And perhaps the Patriots are better than I wanted to give them credit for.

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Has rookie QB Bailey Zappe played well enough to have created a QB controversy in New England?

Overall Record Against the Spread: 51-41-2; Overall Record Straight Up: 51-43

So, with Week 6 in the books, it is time to start thinking about Week 7’s slate of games. Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 7 of the 2022 season.

All odds courtesy of bet365 (as of October 18, 2022).

New Orleans at Arizona (-1.5)

This is a very tough game. I have had bad luck picking both teams this year. I feel the Saints are the superior team, but the Cards are at home.

For now, I will take the Cards to win. However, I reserve the right to change my mind before kickoff, as it is not clear who New Orleans will have in their lineup.

Pick: Cards to win and cover the spread.

Cleveland at Baltimore (-6.5)

In Week 6, the Ravens let another big lead slip away. And QB Lamar Jackson, who is such a gamer, played atrociously in the fourth quarter.

I expect the Ravens to rebound and beat a Browns team that feels like they want to throw in the towel.

Pick: Ravens to win and cover the spread.

Tampa Bay
(-10.5) at Carolina

I expect the Bucs to be seething after their Week 6 loss to the Steelers. With a mid-season coaching change and injuries to their top two QBs, Carolina is in disarray right now.

Christian McCaffrey may not even be on the team by the time you read this. Every week, I keep expecting the Bucs offense to break out of their slump, but it isn’t happening. Thus, for now, I will take the Panthers to lose but to stay within striking distance.

Pick: Bucs to win, but Panthers against the spread.

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TB12 just isn’t having much fun these days.

Atlanta at Cincinnati (-6)

The Falcons have surprised football fans this year. Many of us surely thought they were playing for draft position for the start. Thus, I have to give some credit.

Having said that, however, the Bengals are simply a notch above them. I look for the Bengals to handle the up-start Falcons at home.

Pick: Bengals to win, but Falcons against the spread.

Detroit at Dallas (-7)

The Lions are a talented but inconsistent team. Coming off their BYE, the Lions should come out strong in this one.

Having said that, however, the Lions are still the Lions. And they are on the road. With QB Dak Prescott slated to play in this game, I expect the Cowboys to take care of business at home. But the Lions could keep it close.

Pick: Cowboys to win, but Lions against the spread.

New York Giants at Jacksonville

The Giants are 5-1 and have found ways to win close games this year. To me, it almost feels like the Giants could beat or lose to anyone.

The Jags are at home and desperate for a win. I think they force Danny Dimes into a few costly turnovers that prove to be the difference.

Pick: Jags to win and cover the spread.

usa today 19245956.0 min Just Ask Joe
Is it time to take the New York Giants seriously?

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-3)

I have no idea how they are doing it, but somehow the Colts have a winning record after 6 weeks. Despite an offense that has struggled all year, the Colts have found ways to win games.

Even so, the well-rested Titans coming off a Week 5 BYE should be prepared for this all-important intra-divisional showdown. I like for the Titans to balance the scales this week and beat the Colts at home.

Pick: Titans to win and cover the spread.

Green Bay
(-5.5) at Washington

The Packers are the more desperate and talented team. I like them to pull this one out on the road. However, if they are healthy, I like the Commanders to keep it close at home

Pick: Packers to win, but Commanders against the spread.

New York Jets (-1.5) at Denver

The Jets have won three in a row and are one of the surprises of the season so far. The Broncos are a desperate team at home that has struggled offensively all year.

I look for the Broncos to come out and play like their lives depend on it.

Update: It was just reported that Russell Wilson will not play in this one, and the odds have changed enough to now make the Broncos underdogs at home.

With the way Russell Wilson has been playing, I am not really sure how much they will really miss him. I like Brett Rypien to do enough to get the Broncos back on track.

Pick: Broncos to win.

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The Jets have reeled off three consecutive wins.

Houston at Las Vegas (-7)

It is now or never for the Raiders to make something of their season. They absolutely have to beat the Texans at home in this one. I think they will.

Pick: Raiders to win and cover the spread.

Seattle at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)

I feel that the Chargers will win a close game here. The Seahawks have proven to me that they are a decent team. And they do not make the kind of mistakes that lead to blowouts.

I will take the Chargers to win a tight one.

Pick: Chargers to win, but Seahawks against the spread.

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Rookie RB Kenneth Walker III rushed for 97 yards and a TD in his first start.

Kansas City (-3) at San Francisco

Both teams are coming off losses. I just feel that the Chiefs, even on the road, are more likely to bounce back. I can’t remember the last time they lost two consecutive games.

Pick: Chiefs to win and cover the spread.

Pittsburgh at Miami

Tua is expected to be back for this one. And Miami is at home. Thus, after three losses in a row, I like Miami to right the ship and get back on track in this one.

But will they win by more than a TD? For now, I will say yes.

Pick: Dolphins to win and cover the spread.

Chicago at New England (-7.5)

Don’t look now people, but the Patriots are coming. While I am skeptical of how they will ultimately fare against the elite teams, the Pats are beating the teams in their zip code.

I like for that trend to continue. Chicago just doesn’t have the weapons to scare anyone. And the jury is still out on whether Justin Fields is an NFL quarterback.

Even so, the point spread is too large in my opinion. While I know they won their last two games handily, I think the Patriots are too conservative for us to expect a blowout.

Pick: Patriots to win, but the Bears to cover the spread.

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Patriots second-year RB Rhamondre Stevenson has made his mark in the last few weeks.

Thank you for reading “NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread: Just Ask Joe! I really enjoyed speculating about these games, and hope I was able to shed a little light.

Make sure to hit me up on Twitter or Facebook with any comments and/or to simply tell me how wrong I was. For more analyses, check out our website (and especially the part that deals with betting) and/or join us on Discord.

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