Need Someone to Weigh in On Your Latest Football Bet? Just Ask Joe!
Welcome back, folks! Week 3 saw some incredible upsets. Presently, we have only two undefeated teams in the NFL: the Miami Dolphins and the Philadelphia Eagles. With such parity that currently exists in the NFL, these games are getting harder to pick every week.
I had a mediocre week with my picks going 9-7 against the spread and 9-7 straight up. Compared to 8 experts at CBS (making picks against the spread), however, I did fairly well, as I was only a half-game from the top spot. In fact, for the entire season thus far, I am trying to keep pace with the only two CBS experts who have winning records against the spread.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Proud Of
I wonder how many people agreed with me picking Carolina over New Orleans. In the NFL, a desperate team at home always has a chance.
If they had a bit of luck in their previous two games, the Panthers could easily be 3-0 right now. As it stands, however, Matt Rhule and Baker did what they needed to do and get to hang on to their jobs a while longer.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Ashamed Of
As always, I feel more shame than pride, as I got so many picks wrong yet again. However, the game that upset me the most is the Lions’ loss to the Vikings.
I actually picked this one right, but I was really hoping that Detroit would prove me wrong. And for a while, they did just that.
Detroit led the whole way and really deserved to win this one. But in the end, the Lions are still the Lions. In other words, they just seem to lose these types of games at the end more often than not. This is why it is important to go with your head (over your heart) when you bet these games.
Overall Record Against the Spread: 25-23; Overall Record Straight Up: 26-22
So, with Week 3 in the books, it is time to start thinking about Week 4’s slate of games. Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 4 of the 2022 season.
All odds courtesy of bet365 (as of September 27, 2022).
Miami at Cincinnati (-3)
This has to be the week that the Dolphins are brought back down to earth, doesn’t it? The Bengals started to figure things out last week and got their much-needed first win of the season.
I think they build on that. And to be honest, I am still not convinced that the Dolphins are this juggernaut that should be feared by everyone, especially on the road.
Even if we are to assume that Tua’s back problems do not hinder him, I still like the Bengals to win this one at home.
Pick: Bengals to win and cover.
Minnesota (-3.5) at New Orleans
At first glance, this was an easy one for me. I imagined the Saints’ Defense making life miserable for QB Kirk Cousins. As long as Jamies Winston wasn’t forced to try to do much, I thought the Saints would win this one going away.
As the week progressed, however, it has now become clear that QB Jamies Winston and WR Michael Thomas will both not play. And with retread QB Andy Dalton slated to start and RB Alvin Kamara questionable, I am changing my pick.
Since this game is in London (on a neutral site) and not in New Orleans, I feel very confident that the Vikings will be too much for the depleted Saints in this one.
Pick: Vikings to win and cover the spread.
Cleveland (-2.5) at Atlanta
Usually, when two bad teams play (and the spread is a FG or less), I take the home team. However, I am starting to strongly suspect that the Browns are a decent team.
And Mariota just is not a winning football player. Take the Brownies and feel good about it.
Pick: Browns to win and cover the spread.
Buffalo (-3) at Baltimore
This is a very interesting game for football fans. Most people in the football world expect Buffalo to bounce back after losing in Miami. However, winning in Baltimore right now is a tall order.
I may come back and change this pick. But for now, I am taking Baltimore at home. The Bills suffered several injuries on defense. And Lamar Jackson feels a bit more herculean than Josh Allen right now.
Pick: Ravens to win and cover the spread.
Washington at Dallas (-3)
This intra-divisional rivalry match-up could go either way. I am taking the Cowboys at home to find a way to get the W.
I think the Dallas D can force Wentz into some Wentzian-type of mistakes. And I am starting to trust Cooper Rush to do just enough (and, most importantly, to not blow it).
Pick: Cowboys to win and cover the spread.
Seattle at Detroit (-6.5)
The Lions are the better team. And they are at home. This should be an easy pick.
But, are we really going to trust the Lions after last week? I will reluctantly take them to win, but nothing would surprise me here.
Pick: Lions to win, but Seahawks against the spread.
Los Angeles Chargers (-6) at Houston
The Chargers still believe they can contend this year. The Texans, on the other hand, are merely a few weeks from punting on yet another season for prime draft position.
I will take the more talented roster in this one.
Pick: Chargers to win and cover.
Tennessee at Indianapolis (-3)
Just a week ago I was wondering if Indy would win a game all year. Now, I am thinking they might have a chance to win two in a row.
This really is a tough one to pick and could easily go either way. I will take Indy simply because they are at home.
Pick: Colts to win and cover.
Chicago at New York Giants (-3)
Until Justin Fields shows me he can pass for over 150 yards in a game, I cannot in good conscience pick the Bears to win on the road.
I think the Giants rebound with a win in this one.
Pick: Giants to win and cover the spread.
Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-7)
The Eagles have emerged as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. As long as they aren’t feeling themselves too much after reeling off three consecutive victories, the Birds should take care of the Jags in this one.
Pick: Eagles to win and cover.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
I do not think Pittsburgh is a very good football team. Yet, I am picking them to win this one. I guess that tells you what I think of the Jets.
I expect Zach Wilson to be rusty in his first game back. Even so, I think the Jets keep it close, as I cannot see a Trubisky-led team running away from anyone.
Pick: Steelers to win, but Jets against the spread.
Arizona at Carolina (-1)
This is a tough one. Usually, I would take the home team in a tough match-up like this.
However, the Cards are the more talented team, and I just feel like they won’t let this one slip away. Kyler is due for a breakout game, and I think it comes this week.
Pick: Cardinals to win.
New England at Green Bay (-11)
After a shaky start at Minnesota to open the season, the Packers have responded well. Look for them to make it three in a row versus a mediocre Patriots team, who will be without their starting QB.
Having said that, however, I actually think Brian Hoyer has enough veteran savvy to at least not get completely blown out. And 11 points is an awful lot to cover.
Pick: Packers to win, but Patriots against the spread.
Denver at Las Vegas (-2)
The Raiders are desperate for a win. They are at home against a Broncos squad that has struggled offensively all year.
These intra-divisional games can be tricky. And everyone is expecting the Broncos to be better than they have looked on offense. Nonetheless, I am taking the Raiders to finally get off the schneid.
Pick: Raiders to win and cover the spread.
Kansas City (-3) at Tampa Bay
This rematch of Super Bowl LV is the marquee matchup of the week and could be the last time Mahomes faces off against Brady. Which one of these two teams is going to lose two consecutive games?
These days, it is hard to watch Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offense. Even without his top 3 WRs (not to mention a few linemen), Brady managed to bring his team back last week and almost pulled off another Brady miracle.
The Bucs’ Defense is excellent and should help keep them in the game. However, I just feel like the Chiefs are the healthier (and more complete) team right now.
Pick: Chiefs to win and cover the spread.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco (-2)
It is hard to pick against the Rams right now. After a loss in Week 1, they seem to have gotten their swag back. And the Niners’ offense has looked anemic all year.
I like the Rams to win this one in a blowout.
Pick: Rams to win and cover the spread.
Thank you for reading “NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread: Just Ask Joe!” I really enjoyed speculating about these games, and hope I was able to shed a little light.
Make sure to hit me up on Twitter or Facebook with any comments and/or to simply tell me how wrong I was. For more analyses, check out our website (and especially the part that deals with betting) and/or join us on Discord.