Need Someone to Weigh in On Your Latest Football Bet? Just Ask Joe!
Welcome back, folks! Week 3 was another amazing week for football fans. But for most people picking games, I think it was probably one they would like to forget. As for me, I had a dreadful Week 2 going 7-9 against the spread and 7-9 straight up.
Compared to 8 experts at CBS (making picks against the spread), I was about middle of the pack this week. Even so, weeks like this make me realize how good the oddsmakers are and how little I really know.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Proud Of
I am glad the Lions came through for me. I think this team is on the rise and will be a tough out most weeks, especially at home.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Ashamed Of
I got a lot of picks wrong, so I have plenty of regrets. However, there are two that I am especially ashamed of. First, shame on me for getting emotional about the Jags’ loss in Week 1. I was so disgusted by how they let a winnable game slip away that I just could not bring myself to pick them again in Week 2.
However, I should have known better. They were more than a field goal underdog at home against a Colts team I knew they could beat. It should have been easy to see that one coming.
Second, what was I thinking picking Kirk Cousins to lead the Vikings to victory over a good Eagles team in primetime? It’s official people; the Cousins’ MNF curse is real. Cousins has the worst record (2-10) on MNF in NFL history (min. 10 starts). I knew this and still picked the Vikings. Shame on me!
I guess it is true what they say. We won’t really know for sure how good or bad teams are until October. For now, though, it seems safe to surmise that teams like the Bucs, Chiefs, and Bills will be in the mix at the end.
Moreover, we can at least start to suspect that some AFC teams like the Bengals, Titans, and Colts may not be what they were last year. And an NFC team like the Eagles may have morphed into a legitimate Super Bowl contender right under our noses.
Overall Record Against the Spread: 16-16; Overall Record Straight Up: 17-15
So, with Week 2 in the books, it is time to start thinking about Week 3’s slate of games. Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 3 of the 2022 season.
All odds courtesy of bet365 (as of September 20, 2022).
Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-5)
Cleveland is favored by more than a field goal. I realize Pittsburgh has issues, but it is hard to imagine this inter-divisional rivalry showdown not going down to the wire.
Further, it is hard to guess how the Browns will react after their epic collapse against the Jets in Week 2. Sometimes, such losses can haunt a team all year.
Pick: Steelers to win.
New Orleans (-3) at Carolina
Carolina is the more desperate team, and they are at home. And we saw glimpses of the old Jamies Winston versus Tampa trying to force the ball and getting picked off numerous times.
This is a must-win for Head Coach Matt Rhule and QB Baker Mayfield, who are fighting to hold on to their jobs. I think they will finally break through and get the much-needed win (or at least cover the spread).
Pick: Panthers to win.
Houston at Chicago (-2.5).
This is a tough one to pick. Both teams have holes and should be in the running for top 10 draft picks next April. I will take the Bears simply because they are at home.
But the fact that QB Justin Fields has had trouble eclipsing 100 yards passing is a cause for serious concern. I look for the Bears D and a conservative game plan on offense to carry the day in a game not many will want to watch.
Pick: Bears to win and cover the spread.
Kansas City (-6.5) at Indianapolis
The Chiefs did not play their best last week against a very good Chargers team. I think they will perform much better this week. And I am not sure what to make of the Colts so far.
There is a chance that they may just be a mediocre team this year. I like the Chiefs to win by more than a TD.
Pick: Chiefs to win and cover.
Buffalo (-4) at Miami
I love what Miami did in the fourth quarter last week. But have they really turned the corner? Or was it just a complete collapse by the Ravens’ defense?
I don’t think I ever remember Miami scoring 28 fourth-quarter points before. Hence, I am going to have to see their offense function at a high level over a few weeks before I really believe they have arrived.
Buffalo is a great barometer to gauge where Miami is really at right now. I think Buffalo gives Miami a wake-up call and brings them crashing down to earth in this one. Give me Buffalo to win and cover the spread.
Pick: Bills to win and cover the spread.
Detroit at Minnesota (-7)
After watching the Vikings-Eagles MNF game, I may have to lower my expectations for the Vikings this year. They look like the same up-and-down club they have been the last few years.
Having said that, however, I expect the roller coaster to go back up next week at home. I will take the Vikings to win, but I like the Lions to keep it close.
Pick: Vikings to win but Lions against the spread.
Baltimore (-3) at New England
After last week’s fourth-quarter collapse, I am expecting a proud team like the Ravens to bounce back in a big way.
And, overall, I expect the Patriots to be mediocre all year. This is not an offense that scares defenses, and Sunday’s win versus Pittsburgh did not really alleviate such concerns.
Pick: Ravens to win and cover the spread.
Cincinnati (-4.5) at New York Jets
This is a tough call. I am taking the Bengals to win and cover. However, I am not overly confident here. So far in this young season, the Bengals’ offensive line has shown it cannot protect Joe Burrow. If this continues, all bets are off and anyone can beat them.
Having said that, however, the Bengals are a desperate team. They will pull out all the stops in Week 3 to avoid going 0-3. Further, the Jets are coming off such an emotional (and improbable win at Cleveland) and are due for a major letdown.
Pick: Bengals to win and cover the spread.
Las Vegas (-1) at Tennessee
This is another tough one to pick. Both teams are 0-2 and desperate for a win. Even though I hate going against the home team in these types of games, I am going with the Raiders simply because I feel they are much more talented.
It feels like the Titans may have peaked last year. When defenses stop Derrick Henry, the Titans just do not have much else to turn to. I am taking the Raiders to get off the schneid in this one.
Pick: Raiders to win and cover the spread.
Even though one team is clearly better than the other, these intra-divisional games are always hard-fought affairs that could go either way.
Nonetheless, I am going to try to stick to the script and just go with what my eyes are telling me. The Eagles are a legit contender this year. And don’t let Wentz’ fantasy football stats fool you; the Commanders are a few weeks from seeing what they have in Sam Howell.
Pick: Eagles to win and cover the spread.
Jacksonville at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)
The Jags have proven to be my nemesis this year. Every week I get their game wrong. This week presents even more challenges. Presently, we do not know if Chargers stud QB Justin Herbert is playing or not.
For this reason, I am advising all bettors to stay away from this game. Even if Herbert plays, it is not clear how effective he will be with fractured rib cartilage causing him pain and discomfort.
As for me, I am going to make my pick here conditional. If Herbert plays, I will take the Chargers to win and cover the spread. If he does not, I will take the Jags to cover the spread (with the Chargers still winning). But be forewarned, the point spread will certainly change if Herbert does not play.
Pick: Chargers to win and cover the spread (contingent on Herbert suiting up).
Los Angeles Rams (-4) at Arizona
It feels like the Cards have been playing catch-up all year. I see more of the same this week versus the Rams.
However, unlike last week versus the Raiders, I do not envision the Cards completing the comeback, especially with James Connor injured.
Pick: Rams to win and cover.
Atlanta at Seattle (-2)
This game could end up being for the number one pick in next year’s NFL rookie draft. Since Seattle is at home, I like their chances.
Also, I think Seattle may still believe they can actually win games. Atlanta is another loss or two away from handing the reigns to third-round pick QB Desmond Ridder, which would make them a more interesting watch in my opinion.
Pick: Seahawks to win and cover the spread.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay (-2.5).
The Buccaneers survived two tough road games to start off the year. Their defense looks great, and Tom Brady is doing just enough to keep their depleted offense afloat.
Although the Packers beat the Bears last week, I feel like their offense is still limited with their lack of threats on the outside.
I expect this to be another defensive battle. Give me the Bucs at home.
Pick: Bucs to win and cover the spread.
San Francisco (-1) at Denver
This is another game that could go either way. I actually think Jimmy G provides the Niners with a more reliable passing attack. And WR Jerry Jeudy is questionable for this one due to a shoulder injury.
Even so, I just feel like the Broncos have not played their best football yet. They are at home, and I expect Russell Wilson to finally step up and remind everyone why the Broncos gave up so much to get him.
Pick: Broncos to win.
Dallas at New York Giants (-2.5)
This game could go either way. And usually, it is smart to take the home team in such a game. However, in recent years, the Cowboys have owned the Giants.
And as odd as it may sound, I actually trust Cooper Rush to take care of the ball a bit more than I do Daniel Jones. The Cowboys’ defense should be able to force Jones into a few timely turnovers that will determine the outcome of this one.
Pick: Cowboys to win.
Thank you for reading “NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread: Just Ask Joe!” I really enjoyed speculating about these games, and hope I was able to shed a little light.
Make sure to hit me up on Twitter or Facebook with any comments and/or to simply tell me how wrong I was. For more analyses, check out our website (and especially the part that deals with betting) and/or join us on Discord.