Need Someone to Weigh in On Your Latest Football Bet? Just Ask Joe!
Welcome back, folks! Despite a seemingly lackluster schedule, Week 12 saw several games go down to the wire. In most of the games, the home teams came out on top. And we are finally starting to get a sense of who the true contenders are. While the Eagles and Chiefs remain the cream of the crop, the Niners, Cowboys, and Dolphins have shown the football world that they are legitimate contenders as well.
As for my picks in Week 12, I managed to have another good week, going 9-6-1 against the spread (and 10-6 straight up). Comparing my picks to those of 8 experts at CBS (making picks against the spread), I finished second this week and continue to lead the overall season picks against the spread.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Proud Of
I had a great Thanksgiving. Somehow, everything I picked went my way. The Bills, Cowboys, and Vikings won, and the Lions, Giants, and Vikings all covered the spread. It is extremely rare (and, yes, very lucky I know) to get everything right on a day with multiple games, so I am going to bask in the glory while I can.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Ashamed Of
I have been chasing the Raiders all year. And I have been picking against the Seahawks most of the year. So, of course, when I finally change things up and pick the Seahawks to win and the Raiders to lose, I get it wrong. Sometimes, I wonder if I would be better off just flipping a coin for some of these games.
Overall Record Against the Spread: 96-78-6; Overall Record Straight Up: 105-75
So, with Week 12 in the books, it is time to start thinking about Week 13’s slate of games. Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 13 of the 2022 season.
All odds courtesy of bet365 (as of November 29, 2022).
Buffalo (-5.5) at New England
The Bills have beaten the Patriots the last two times they have played. And if I remember correctly, they punted only once or twice in those two games.
They won their playoff game versus the Patriots by 30 points. The AFC East torch has officially been passed.
Pick: Bills to win and cover the spread.
Pittsburgh at Atlanta (1.5)
For now, I will take the Falcons to win and cover at home. But, honestly, nothing at all would surprise me in this one. The Steelers are a proud franchise and will fight for every inch. But the Falcons are at home and have more to play for.
Pick: Falcons to win and cover the spread.
Denver at Baltimore (-8)
The Broncos are simply not a good team. And the Ravens are. The Broncos have nothing to play for. The Ravens do.
I just feel like the Ravens will play with their hair on fire (at home) after relinquishing another double-digit fourth-quarter lead.
Pick: Ravens to win and cover the spread.
Green Bay (-2.5) at Chicago
This has been one of the oldest and fiercest rivalries in sports. So, why am I not more excited? The stakes are low. And these teams are playing for nothing more than professional pride.
At the moment, we do not know if Justin Fields will be back for the Bears. So, for now, I will take Aaron Rodgers and co. to get a much needed at Chicago. However, if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play in this, I will have to revisit this pick.
Pick: Packers to win and cover the spread.
Jacksonville at Detroit (-1)
This is such a tough game to pick. I really don’t trust either of these teams.
I suppose since the Lions are at home, I will take them by default in this one.
Pick: Lions to win and cover the spread.
Cleveland (-7) at Houston
This game marks the return of Deshaun Watson to an NFL field. Of course, his return had to take place in Houston.
It is hard to guess how Watson’s return, as well as the fan’s vitriol, will affect the game. I am also wondering how rusty Watson will be after so much time away.
Nevertheless, the Texans are awful and have nothing to play for. Watson won’t need to do much for the Browns to win this by double digits.
Pick: Browns to win and cover the spread.
New York Jets at Minnesota (-3)
I noticed a lot of people are excited about the emergence of Mike White last week. While I feel he is an upgrade over Zach Wilson, I do not really think we can glean too much from his performance versus a porous Bears defense.
If he wins at Minnesota, he will have my attention. But I have seen this story before though. Just Last year, Mike White dazzled in his first start only to face plant with a four-interception game two weeks later.
Pick: Vikings to win and cover the spread.
Washington (-1.5) at New York Giants
An intra-divisional showdown between two evenly-matched teams is very hard to pick. The Commanders are hot right now. And the Giants are very banged up.
Even so, call it a hunch, but I will take the home team to emerge victorious. The Giants are due.
Pick: Giants to win.
Tennessee at Philadelphia (-6)
The Eagles have been just surviving the last few weeks. I am expecting more of the same this week. I think the Titans give them all they can handle.
Pick: Eagles to win, but Titans against the spread.
Seattle (-5) at Los Angeles Rams
It is hard to pick this game not knowing if Mathew Stafford will play. I really do not like the Seahawks moving forward. But against a beat-up Rams squad with nothing to play for, I will take the Seahawks on the road.
But we need to monitor this game all week. And I reserve the right to change my mind up until game time if the situation drastically changes.
Pick: Seahawks to win and cover the spread.
Miami at San Francisco (-3.5)
This is the game I most want to see this week. The storylines are tantalizing. How will Mike McDaniel, the understudy, do against his mentor, Mike Shanahan? How will the Miami aerial attack hold up against the ferocious Niners’ D?
I am going out on a limb here and taking the road Dolphins to pull off the upset. I am not completely sold on the Niners’ offense’s ability to keep pace in a potential shootout.
No one gets rid of the ball as quickly as Tua. And his quick release will neutralize the Niners’ ferocious pass rush.
Pick: Dolphins to win.
Kansas City (-2.5) at Cincinnati
In 2021, the Bengals proved to be the Chiefs’ nemesis. I believe the Chiefs learned a great deal from those two losses.
I think a more mature and patient Patrick Mahomes rises to the occasion. I will take the Chiefs to exact revenge in another must-see game this week.
Pick: Chiefs to win and cover the spread.
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Las Vegas
I might as well flip a coin for this game, as I seem to get these two teams wrong almost every week.
Nonetheless, when I see Justin Herbert throw the ball, I just can’t seem to pick against the Chargers in these tight games. I will try it one more time here.
Pick: Chargers to win and cover the spread.
Indianapolis at Dallas (-9.5)
The Colts beat the Chiefs this year. And they were a whisker away from beating the Eagles a few weeks ago. They are not a bad team.
I like the Cowboys to win. But I think the Colts can stay with them for most of the game.
Pick: Cowboys to win, but Colts against the spread.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-6)
I am tempted to take Tampa to win big. But I have to go with what my eyes are telling me. The Bucs are just not that good this year.
And even when they were good, the Saints’ defense gave them fits. Nevertheless, I just can’t bring myself to take Andy Dalton (on the road) against Tom Brady. Much like the first game they played this year, I envision another hard-fought defensive battle that the Bucs pull out at the end.
Pick: Bucs to win, but Saints against the spread.
Thank you for reading “NFL Week 13 Picks Against the Spread: Just Ask Joe!” I really enjoyed speculating about these games, and hope I was able to shed a little light.
Make sure to hit me up on Twitter or Facebook with any comments and/or to simply tell me how wrong I was. For more analyses, check out our website (and especially the part that deals with betting) and/or join us on Discord.