Need Someone to Weigh in On Your Latest Football Bet? Just Ask Joe!
Happy Thanksgiving, folks! Week 11 blessed us with another amazing week of football. We bore witness to Pat Mahomes continuing his fourth-quarter magic in Los Angeles. And we saw a few teams return to their 2022 identity. For instance, after a loss at Green Bay in Week 10, the Cowboys rebounded to obliterate the Vikings in Week 11. Conversely, after a great comeback against the Cowboys in Week 10, the Packers went back to being a pedestrian team in Week 11.
As for my picks in Week 11, I managed to have a good week, going 9-4-1 against the spread (and 10-4 straight up). Comparing my picks to those of 8 experts at CBS (making picks against the spread), I led the field this week and continue to lead the overall season picks against the spread.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Proud Of
It turns out that picking the Eagles to win but the Colts to cover the spread was a good move. The Colts really deserved to win this one though.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Ashamed Of
As a Cowboys fan, I was so disgusted with the way my team wilted late at Green Bay last week that I may have punished them (and myself) by picking the Vikings in Week 11. Did I ever mention that one should not get emotional when betting these games?
I knew the Cowboys had a shot to beat the Vikes (because they usually do). I should have at least picked them to cover the spread.
Overall Record Against the Spread: 87-72-5; Overall Record Straight Up: 95-69
So, with Week 11 in the books, it is time to start thinking about Week 12’s slate of games, which includes a triple-header Thanksgiving Day football feast! Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 12 of the 2022 season.
All odds courtesy of bet365 (as of November 22, 2022).
Buffalo (-9.5) at Detroit
The Bills are not playing their best ball right now. But, fortunately for them, they are in the easier part of their schedule. Teams like the Lions will surely put up a fight in the first half but will ultimately bow out in the fourth quarter when the game hangs in the balance.
Pick: Bills to win, but Lions against the spread.
New York Giants at Dallas (-10)
The Giants have been having a great season. However, many of their wins have been close. In Week 11, they were exposed a bit. While I am not quite calling them a fraud, they clearly are not this dominant team that other teams should fear.
In fact, in Week 3, the Cowboys went into New York with Cooper Rush and handed them their first loss of the season. With the Cowboys at home and with Dak Prescott at the helm, I expect the Cowboys to handle business once again. Nevertheless, these divisional games are usually tight and anything can happen.
Pick: Cowboys to win, but Giants against the spread.
New England at Minnesota (-2.5)
If only the Patriots could play the Jets every week, life would be good. But getting the Vikings on the road after a loss seems a bit cruel to me. I expect the Vikings to take out all of their frustrations by handily beating the offensively challenged Patriots in this one.
Pick: Vikings to win and cover the spread.
Denver (-2.5) at Carolina
The Panthers looked the part of a horrible team last week, especially on offense. And with Gary Kubiak calling plays for the Broncos, I felt they had an initial spark. However, ultimately, the Broncos could only generate 16 points and fell to the Raiders in overtime.
I expect that the Broncos will do enough to win this one. This is not because I think they are a good team. Rather, it is simply because I think Carolina is that bad. QB Sam Darnold should be rusty starting his first game of the season, especially with limited weapons at his disposal.
Pick: Broncos to win and cover the spread.
Tampa Bay (-3) at Cleveland
Every week, the Browns storm out of the gate to give their fans hope. But more often than not, this team limps to the finish line and/or finds creative ways to lose.
After an early to mid-season slump, the Bucs have a two-game winning streak going into this one. I think they extend it to three in a row here. However, I do not necessarily think they are all the way back. It should be close.
Pick: Bucs to win and cover the spread.
Baltimore (-4) at Jacksonville
The Ravens’ offense struggled mightily last week, but they found a way to pull it out. I am expecting the same thing to happen at Jacksonville in Week 11.
Pick: Ravens to win, but Jags against the spread.
Houston at Miami (-13)
After some surprising early-season performances, the Texans are exactly whom prognosticators thought they were. They are in the hunt for the first overall pick.
And the Dolphins, who are playing at home, are among the league’s elite. There is no reason to believe this will be a close game.
Pick: Dolphins to win and cover the spread.
Chicago at New York Jets (-4)
This is a tough one for many reasons. First, the Bears’ offense is playing winning football. But their defense is awful and the reason they continue to lose shootouts every week.
On the other hand, when the Jets lose, it is usually their offense that is to blame. I am not sure what QB Zach Wilson has to do to get benched, but he has looked lost at times in the games I saw him play this year.
Even so, I expect the Jets, as a team, to rebound and get a much-needed win to keep pace in the AFC East. And with Justin Fields likely to miss this game with a dislocated shoulder, I have to take the Jets in this one.
Pick: Jets to win and cover the spread.
Cincinnati (-1.5) at Tennessee
The Titans are such a fundamentally sound team. They run the ball as well as anyone. And this is a well-coached team that generally does not beat themselves.
I think this game could go either way. But I will give the Titans the edge at home.
Pick: Titans to win.
Atlanta at Washington (-4)
Anything could happen here, but I just feel such a positive vibe from the Commanders right now. They are on a roll, and I expect it to continue this week versus the Falcons.
Pick: Commanders to win and cover the spread.
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Arizona
It remains to be seen who will line up under center for the Cards. If it ends up being Kyler Murray, I may come back and change my pick.
For now, I will take the Chargers to get back on track with a big road win.
Update: Kyler will play. Thus, while I think the Chargers will still win, I think it will be close.
Pick: Chargers to win, but Cards against the spread.
Las Vegas at Seattle (-3.5)
Although they have had a fairly decent season thus far, the Seahawks’ loss to the Bucs in Germany in Week 10 has pundits wondering if they will now come back down to earth.
Thus, this is an important game for the Hawks. If they really are going to contend for the playoffs this year, they absolutely need to beat downtrodden teams like the Raiders at home.
Pick: Hawks to win and cover the spread.
Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City (-14.5)
I think even the Rams know their season is over. A loss at Kansas City should make it official.
If Matt Stafford, who is in concussion protocol, plays, I may end up picking the Rams to cover. For now, though, I will take the Chiefs to win big.
Pick: Chiefs to win and cover the spread.
New Orleans at San Francisco (-9)
The Saints pulled off a big win in Week 11. But all they are really doing is hurting their draft position. They simply do not play with the kind of consistency to challenge the big boys.
And the Niners are as physical and well-coached as you will find right now in the NFL. This is their game to lose. But 9 seems like too many points in what will surely be a defensive battle.
Pick: Niners to win, but Saints against the spread.
Green Bay at Philadelphia (-7)
A loss here should really all but end the Packers’ post season aspirations. I expect them to play inspired football and have a chance to win.
Ultimately, however, I just do not think the Packers will pull off the miracle. But they will make it interesting.
Pick: Eagles to win, but Packers against the spread.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (-2.5)
This is another tough one to pick. But I will take the Colts at home coming off a heartbreaking loss. The Colts’ defense has given some good QBs a hard time this year. Can you imagine what they will do to a neophyte like Kenny Pickett?
Pick: Colts to win and cover the spread.
Happy Thanksgiving again, folks! Thank you for reading “NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread: Just Ask Joe!” I really enjoyed speculating about these games, and hope I was able to shed a little light.
Make sure to hit me up on Twitter or Facebook with any comments and/or to simply tell me how wrong I was. For more analyses, check out our website (and especially the part that deals with betting) and/or join us on Discord.