Need Someone to Weigh in On Your Latest Football Bet? Just Ask Joe!
Welcome back, folks! Week 9 showed us that anything can happen. The Bills, who were favored by nearly two touchdowns, somehow lost to the New York Jets. The Raiders blew a 17-point lead again. And Geno Smith showed once again that he is no fluke.
As for my picks in Week 9, I was simply atrocious, going 3-8-2 against the spread and 8-5 straight up. Comparing my picks to those of 8 experts at CBS (making picks against the spread), I was tied for dead last.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Proud Of
Thee are not many to choose from this week. The only one I confidently believed in that came through was the Ravens’ win at New Orleans. These are two teams heading in opposite directions.
The Pick(s) I Am Most Ashamed Of
I am ashamed of most of my picks this week. But the two that stick in my craw are the Jets versus the Bills and the Texans versus the Steelers. In both cases, I should have respected the double-digit point spreads more than I did.
If you are getting more than ten points at home, you have to seriously consider taking the underdog, no matter how good you think the other team is.
Overall Record Against the Spread: 70-62-4; Overall Record Straight Up: 78-58
So, with Week 9 in the books, it is time to start thinking about Week 10’s slate of games. Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 10 of the 2022 season.
All odds courtesy of bet365 (as of November 9, 2022).
Atlanta (-3) at Carolina
Both teams are coming off losses. But the Falcons have more stability right now and seem to be playing to win. I think they will come out and play like their season depended on it.
The Panthers, on the other hand, are in a state of flux and just trying to figure things out. The Front office seems to have already thrown in the towel on the season.
Pick: Falcons to win and cover the spread.
Seattle vs. Tampa Bay (-2.5)
This neutral-site game features two evenly matched clubs. I feel that Seattle deserves to be the pick here. However, old habits die hard. In other words, I just can’t bet against Tom Brady.
If they are going to make anything out of this season, they have to win games like this moving forward.
Pick: Bucs to win and cover the spread.
Minnesota at Buffalo (-3.5)
Could this be a Super Bowl preview? In Week 10, it doesn’t get any better than this. The Bills’ loss to the Jets was an aberration. I look for them to bounce back next week and remind everyone how good they are.
However, if Josh Allen doesn’t play, I will revisit this one.
Pick: Bills to win and cover the spread.
Detroit at Chicago (-3)
The Lions are coming off a rare win. And the Bears lost yet another game. Even so, I am taking Chicago at home in this one.
The last few weeks, I have seen QB Justin Fields grow before my every eyes. If their defense shows up, I feel like they will win this one going away.
Pick: Bears to win and cover the spread.
Jacksonville at Kansas City (-9.5)
The thinking that the Jags can hang in with anybody will be put to the test this week.
This spread is a large one and is causing me some consternation. For now, I will take the Chiefs to cover.
Pick: Chiefs to win and cover.
Cleveland at Miami (-3.5)
Miami is rolling now. If they race out to an early lead in this one, things can really snowball for the Browns. I don’t see this one being close.
Pick: Miami to win and cover the spread.
Houston at New York Giants (-6.5)
At this stage of the season, teams are beginning to separate. The Giants are the better team and have something to play for. It is hard not to like them in this game.
But have they beaten anyone by more than a TD? I think the Texans can stay with them here.
Pick: Giants to win, but Texans against the spread.
New Orleans at Pittsburgh (-2.5)
Both teams are playing for pride. And the Steelers have more of it than anyone. I like for them to play tough coming out of the BYE.
Pick: Steelers to win and cover the spread.
Denver at Tennessee (-3)
This is a tough one to pick. Denver should put forth their best effort coming off a BYE. But they just haven’t looked great all year.
The Titans are usually not the kind of team to lose two in a row, especially at home. However, with a murky QB situation, it is hard to trust them here.
Pick: Denver to win.
Indianapolis at Las Vegas (-6)
The Raiders’ season, thus far, has been nothing short of a nightmare. I like them to take out all of their frustration on a depleted Colts team, who seem to have already thrown in the towel this season.
Update: With the hiring of Jeff Saturday and the reinsertion of Matt Ryan as QB (not to mention having stud RB Job Taylor healthy), the Colts should do enough to keep it close.
Pick: Raiders to win, but Colts against the spread.
Dallas (-5) at Green Bay
Having lost five in a row, Green Bay is reeling and almost ready to throw in the towel. The Cowboys, fresh off the BYE, are looking to keep their winning streak alive.
This is an emotional game for Mike McCarthy, as he returns to Lambeau. I like the Cowboys to play hard for their embattled coach.
Pick: Cowboys to win and cover the spread.
Arizona at Los Angeles Rams (-3)
This is another tough one to pick. It is hard to fathom how far these two teams have fallen off this year, especially the Rams.
I like Kyler Murray to make some off-schedule plays in this one that will, ultimately, prove to be the difference.
Pick: Cards to win.
Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco (-7)
I know that San Francisco is the better team. But when I compare QBs, I just cannot in good conscience take Jimmy G over Justin Herbert by more than a touchdown.
I am going to sit on the fence here I suppose. I like the Niners to win, but I really think the Chargers will keep it close.
Pick: Niners to win, but Chargers against the spread.
Washington at Philadelphia (-11)
It is hard to pick against the Eagles right now. They are clicking on all cylinders. But, sometimes, these intra-divisional matchups can be tricky. I look for the Commanders to give them all they can handle.
Pick: Eagles to win, but Commanders against the spread.
Thank you for reading “NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread: Just Ask Joe!” I really enjoyed speculating about these games, and hope I was able to shed a little light.
Make sure to hit me up on Twitter or Facebook with any comments and/or to simply tell me how wrong I was. For more analyses, check out our website (and especially the part that deals with betting) and/or join us on Discord.