Introduction

Last week in our Dalton Kincaid Dynasty Rookie Profile article, we took an in-depth look at this top tight end expected to come off late in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Now, we look at another tight end that’s also currently being mocked at the end of the first round – Michael Mayer out of Notre Dame.

For much of the off-season, Mayer stood head and shoulders above the other highly-ranked tight ends like Dalton Kincaid, Darnell Washington, and Luke Musgrave. But on the eve of the 2023 NFL Draft, the light shining on Mayer has dimmed somewhat, and his slide down has closed the gap to the other tight ends in his draft class.

Let’s dive into his dynasty rookie profile and determine whether Michael Mayer remains top dog… or if his slide is justifiable.

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High School

Michael Mayer had a highly successful high school football career. He played at Covington Catholic High School (in Park Hills, KY), which won the 2017 and 2019 state championship football titles. Mayer played a significant role as both a tight end and linebacker there.

During his senior year in 2019, Mayer was the focal point of the team where he caught 49 balls for 970 yards and scored 15 touchdowns. As a linebacker that same year, he recorded 99 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, 4 interceptions, and 7.5 tackles for loss. No doubt about it, Michael Mayer is a hand-in-the-dirt football player through and through. The accolades confirm this – he was selected as the 2019-20 Gatorade Football Player of the Year in Kentucky and was also selected to for the 2020 U.S. Army All-American Bowl.

Not only did Michael Mayer dominate on the football field, but he also ruled on the basketball court. He helped the Covington Catholic basketball team win the 2018 state championship title. Playing high school basketball, like many other prolific tight ends before him, allowed Mayer to refine the skillset that translates so well to football.

College

Success continued to follow Michael Mayer at Notre Dame where he seized the starting tight end role during his freshman year, and he completely ran away with the role in his sophomore and junior year.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish College Statistics
YearGPRecYdsYPCTDs
2020124245010.72
2021127184011.87
2022126780912.19
Career36180209911.718

Mayer improved during each of his college years. Of note, data shows that he had 1.39 yards per route run (YPRR) and garnered an 18% target share per route run (TPRR) in his freshman year. These numbers grew to 1.99 YPRR and a 23% TPRR. In addition, his 70 yards per game sophomore season was only topped by 5 other tight end seasons in the past decade. Mayer led the Fighting Irish in receptions, tied for most touchdowns, and finished second-best in reception yards that year.

Michael Mayer’s improvement culminated in his junior year, ending with 2.44 YPRR and a 31% TPRR. His junior year YPRR number was first amongst all Power 5 tight ends in 2022 and seventh best of all Power 5 tight ends in the past decade. To truly appreciate HIM, it should be highlighted that Mayer led all college tight ends in receptions (138), reception yards (1,649), and touchdowns (16) over his last two seasons.

He was nominated as a finalist for the 2022 John Mackey Award, which goes to the best tight end in the nation. If there was no Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer would have almost certainly won the award. The film don’t lie:

Courtesy of JustBombsProductions

Strengths

Michael Mayer is touted as the most pro-ready tight end coming out of this draft class. Unlike many of the other tight ends, he is a solid and effective in-line blocker. Mayer is a big-bodied 6’4”, 249 lbs. tight end, and he can make an early NFL impact away from the ball as a blocker. This will allow him to see the field. Seeing the field means that he can put his pass-catching abilities on display.

Michael Mayer’s pass-catching strengths is his ball skills. He can make contested catches. He can make these catches in traffic. He can high point the ball. Other times, he just creates space by boxing out his defenders. He also has soft hands. All this means that passes will not clang off his sure hands or get knocked out of position, allowing him to turn up the field and create some yards after the catch.

Moreover, his body control and firm concentration shows off his special ability to make important catches in big spots that other tight ends are unable to make. Once he has the ball in his hands, he is able to break a few tackles and pick up the critical yardage. Indeed, he’s made several big-time plays for the Fighting Irish over the years. What he lacks in athleticism, he makes up with his ball skills and ability to absorb hits to move the ball forward.

Weaknesses

His glaring weakness, athleticism, was on full display at the NFL Combine. The Combine confirmed that Mayer is not as athletic relative to the other tight ends that participated.

Each of Mayer’s speed and explosion measurables above had him in the bottom third of tight ends in those respective criteria.

The lack of athletic ability limits upside. Michael Mayer might have tackle-breaking, defender-shedding ability, but his breakaway speed means he won’t be making any house calls anytime soon.

An NFL team is typically a collection of the best college players at their respective positions, and it remains to be seen whether Mayer’s college dominance can translate over to the pro level. Defenders are faster, stronger and lengthier than the competition that Mayer lined up against in college. He was nicknamed “Baby Gronk” during his time at Notre Dame, but that moniker may be a misnomer as he enters the NFL; his fantasy production might be more comparable to solid (but not elite) tight ends like Jason Witten, Greg Olsen, or even Kyle Rudolph.

Opportunity

Many analysts have Michael Mayer going late in the first round. Several tight end needy teams in this range include the Chargers (21st pick), Giants (25th pick), Cowboys (26th pick), and Bengals (28th pick). Outside of the Giants, who recently traded for Darren Waller, these landing spots present promising opportunities for Michael Mayer. If Mayer sees the field early, he’ll get invaluable experience to allow him to adjust to the NFL and get the necessary reps.

Unless Mayer quickly develops into the focal point of the offense and is hyper-targeted (like Rob Gronkowski), it’s unlikely that Mayer would reach the upper echelon tier of tight ends. Nonetheless, Mayer plays the prototypical tight-end role of blocking and making short catches at an adequate level, so he could have a lengthy and successful NFL career.

Threat

Michael Mayer will almost certainly be surrounded by other pass-catchers that are more athletic and dynamic than him. Though he could continue to improve (as we saw in college), the threat lingers that he won’t get as many targets to truly blossom, and his lack of athleticism contributes greatly to that.

For example, would Michael Mayer be able to carve out a meaningful role if he landed with the Bengals? Joe Burrow already has several weapons, and Hayden Hurst this past season was similarly overshadowed. Mayer could end up third or even fourth in targets whilst serving an important role as a tight end blocker. Blocking doesn’t award fantasy points.

Conclusion

Landing spot and draft capital will play a significant role in Mayer’s dynasty fantasy value.

Rob Sullivan’s analytical piece, Tight End Hit Rates 2017-2022 revealed that six of the seven tight ends drafted in the first round of NFL drafts since 2017 have gone on to have at least one top 12 fantasy tight end season. Only Evan Engram, David Njoku, T.J. Hockenson, and Noah Fant have had two top 12 finishes, and no first-rounder achieved three top 12 finishes. If we see Michael Mayer drafted in the first round, we can expect, at a minimum, a similar result.   

In sum, for dynasty fantasy football purposes, Michael Mayer presents a long term tight end with a serviceable floor but a lower ceiling. Depending on your dynasty team-building preferences at the tight end position, Mayer may fit your bill.

Thank you for reading Michael Mayer Dynasty Rookie Profile

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