As we enter week 13, we put the bye weeks in the review mirror and for the first time since week 3 have all our weapons on our rosters at our disposal. Injuries not withstanding of course.
We had a good week in week 12;
Hits; Derrick Henry (Start of the Week), Sam Darnold (Start), Baker Mayfield (Start), Dak Prescott (Sit), Mason Rudolph (Bust), Kareem Hunt (Start), Leonard Fournette (Start), Joe Mixon (Sit), Calvin Ridley (Start), Mohammed Sanu (Sit), Michael Gallup (Bust), Ryan Griffin (Start), T.J. Hockenson (Sit), Dallas Goedert (Sleeper), Vance McDonald (Bust).
Misses; Jameis Winston (Sit), Jeff Driskel (Sleeper), Ronald Jones (Sit), Darius Guice (Sleeper), Ezekiel Elliott (Bust), Terry McLaurin (Start), John Brown (Sit), Zach Pascal (Sleeper), Cameron Brate (Start), Greg Olsen (Sit).
All totaled 15 skilled positional players were a hit, and 10 were a miss. I was 3 for 4 at the Kicker position and 1 for 4 at DST. Hopefully we can get even better in week 13.
If there is a player you are uncertain of this week and he is not listed below, hit me up on twitter @RotoHeatSully and I’ll answer all your start/sit questions.
Best of luck in Week 13 everyone.
1. Start of the Week:
Jared Goff QB21 155.60 Fantasy Points
Yes, you read that correctly. I realize that Jared Goff in a word has been horrific recently. In the month of November, Goff has averaged 20 completions on 32 attempts for 209 yards, with no touchdowns and 1.67 interceptions per game. Julian Edelman has more TD passes this month than Jared Goff to put into perspective how much the Rams QB has been struggling
In a week 12 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Goff finished 26/37 for 212 yards and 2 interceptions. 361 days prior Goff was 31/49 for 413 yards and 4 touchdowns on Monday Night versus the Kansas City Chiefs. What a difference a year makes.
In this case it will be what a difference a week makes. Goff and his struggling Rams offense travel to Phoenix to face the Cardinals in week 13. Arizona allows a league leading 26.2 fantasy points per game against opposing quarterbacks, and they rank 31st in yards allowed on defense. This is the get right game that Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams desperately need.
Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers QB8 199.08 Fantasy Points
On only five occasions in Aaron Rodgers’ career has the Green Bay Packers quarterback finished a start with fewer than 105 passing yards, his most recent was on full display in prime time during Sunday night’s 37-8 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.
In Week 13, the Packers and their future Hall of fame QB face the New York Giants. The Giants are 26th in passing yards against and 29th in points allowed per game. In addition the G-Men are 9th worse in points allowed to the QB position with 20.7/game. Look for a pissed off Aaron Rodgers to go off this week and easily surpass the 20 point plateau (in 4 point/passing TD league scoring) in the process.
Sam Darnold New York Jets QB23 136.40 Fantasy Points
Sam Darnold and the New York Jets are rolling, scoring 34 points in each of their last 3 games. In those last 3 games, Darnold has posted 21.70, 26.42, and 28.20 points. Week 13 New York faces the 0-11 Cincinnati Bengals, also known as the free space on the league bingo card.
The Bengals are in a word accommodating to their opposing QB allowing 21.7 fantasy points a game as well as a league worse 417.3 yards per game. Start Darnold with ease here.
Jimmy Garoppolo San Francisco 49ers QB13 185.34 Fantasy Points
Watching the San Francisco 49ers this season has been fun. This team is legit and could very well go on a deep playoff run. In recent weeks the play of Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has improved. Perhaps his knee is nearing 100%, and perhaps it’s the fact that in his last 4 games he has faced the Cardinals twice, the Seahawks and the Packers. Those defenses allow on average 21.9 fantasy position a game to the opposing quarterback.
In Week 13 the Niners and Jimmy G travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens. Baltimore since week 7 ranks as the number 1 defense in DVOA rankings (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which calculates a team’s success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. That is geek speak for pretty damn good. The Ravens as a team are on fire and I am avoiding Jimmy here as a result.
Baker Mayfield Cleveland Browns QB16 172.04 Fantasy Points
From two time bust, to starter to a sit designation in 4 weeks in this article, I present Baker Mayfield. Baker enters this week as the 16th highest scoring QB and he has posted a season high in fantasy points in 3 straight weeks. In Week 13 in “Helmet Gate 2.0”, Baker the Browns travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. The Steelers allow 16.7 points per game to the opponents QB and Baker will be hard pressed to reach that number on Sunday. As a result I am sitting him here.
Nick Foles Jacksonville Jaguars QB38 40.72 Fantasy Points
Since his return from a collarbone injury, Nick Foles hasn’t looked impressive under center, throwing for two touchdown passes and an interception, but he should put together his best game in a Jacksonville Jaguars uniform this week.
The Jaguars will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who field the 31st-ranked pass defense in yards allowed per game. The club has also surrendered 26 touchdowns through the air. The extra motivation here for Foles is this game could very well determine his fate as the Jags starting QB going forward.
Deshaun Watson Houston Texans QB4 245.06 Fantasy Points
I have been doing fairly well leveraging the New England Patriots defense to aid me in these bust calls. Week 13 is no different. The Patriots have destroyed every quarterback they have faced this season not named Lamar Jackson.
The Pats are tops in the league against the QB position allowing 10 fantasy points per game. They are 2nd in points allowed (10.6), and 2nd in passing yards allowed (158) per game. Deshaun Watson struggled in week 11 against the Ravens top defense and I am expecting more of the same Sunday night in Foxboro.
3. Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell New York Jets RB12 167.50 PPR Fantasy Points
Le’Veon Bell is having one of the worst non-injury statistical years of his professional career this season. In eleven games this season he is averaging 50.63 yards rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry. At this pace he will finish 2019 season with 759 rushing yards. The last time he saw a number that low was in 2015, a season he played in only six games and his rookie season in which he appeared 13 times.
Thankfully for Bell and his fantasy mangers, the Jets face the Bengals in week 13. The Bengals allow 27.7 fantasy points to the opposing RB and league worst 166.4 rushing yards a game. Bell is money in the bank this week; start him with absolute confidence here.
Jonathan Williams Indianapolis Colts RB71 36.90 PPR Fantasy Points
Marlon Mack is out for the foreseeable future, and Jonathan Williams has taken a firm grasp on the Colts lead running back role. Since taking over for the injured Mack in week 11, Williams has posted 15.70 and 21.10 fantasy points in back to back weeks.
The Colts face the Titans in Week 13, a team that has yielded 25.5 fantasy points per game to opposing RB this season and 117 yards and 36.9 PPR points to Leonard Fournette in Week 12.
Running behind that potent offensive line in Indianapolis, ride the hot hand and start Jonathan Williams.
Joe Mixon Cincinnati Bengals RB20 122.30 PPR Fantasy Points
Since the Cincinnati Bengals made the move to back-up Quarterback Ryan Finley in week 10, Joe Mixon has seen a slight surge in his volume and his performance. The Bengals are switching back to Andy Dalton in week 13 and potentially adding A.J. Green to their wideout rotation as well. Mixon struggled against a solid run defense (Pittsburgh) last week to the tune of 7.90 PPR fantasy points, the 5th time this season he has finished in single digits.
The New York Jets are allowing a league best 78.1 yards on the ground this season. Mixon is an easy sit here.
Leonard Fournette Jacksonville Jaguars RB5 206.20 PPR Fantasy Points
Coming off a career high 36.90 PPR points last week, Fournette is a rather easy sit call for me. Fournette and a the Jaguars face the second ranked run defense in the NFL this week when they match-up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The only reason for pause here when it comes to sitting LF27 is his role in the passing game. As good as the Bucs are against the run, they are equally bad against the pass. I see this as a game that Nick Foles and the Jags exploit the weak Tampa secondary and as a result Fournette will not be involved enough to warrant a start.
Bo Scarbrough Detroit Lions RB87 19.30 PPR Fantasy Points
In consecutive weeks, Bo Scarbrough has led the Detroit Lions backfield in rush attempts and yards. He appears to be locked into the lead role with Ty Johnson and pass-catching specialist J.D. McKissic behind him on the depth chart.
The Chicago Bears run defense has allowed 109+ yards in three of the last four games. On Thanksgiving Day, Scarbrough will feast on the Bears’ ailing front seven while handling the majority workload. This recommendation is on the bold side because of Chicago’s reputation for fielding a hard-nosed defense, but the second-year tailback should have some success as long as he gets to 15+ touches which should be a lock.
Tevin Coleman San Francisco 49ers RB21 122.20 PPR Fantasy Points
Back in week 8, Tevin Coleman posted a line of 11 carries for 105 yards with 3 touchdowns, and 2 catches for 13 more yards and another score. That beauty of a week added up to 37.80 PPR points. In his following 4 contests he has totaled 38.90 PPR points.
Week 13 the Niners face the Ravens and their 3rd ranked rush defense. I see this one as a week in which you can easily avoid Coleman.
4. Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp Los Angeles Rams WR8 185.40 PPR Fantasy Points
Cooper Kupp not unlike the majority of his Los Angeles Rams teammates has struggled in recent weeks. Since posting 35 points back in week 8, Kupp has totaled 17.80 points in his last three games which includes a zero point week 10. Kupp is averaging 16.94 points per game which is 9th on the season.
The Rams opponent in week 8 was the Cincinnati Bengals and since that juicy matchup Kupp and the Rams have faced the Steelers, Bears, and Ravens, defenses that rank 8th, 9th, and 11th respectively against the pass. The Rams opponent this week, the Arizona Cardinals is a welcome sight for this struggling offense. Arizona is ranked dead last against the pass (297.5 yards per game), and they allow 43.8 fantasy points to the opponents WR’s. This is a great opportunity for Kupp and his mates to get their swagger back.
Stefon Diggs Minnesota Vikings WR19 161.00 PPR Fantasy Points
The Vikings are coming in to week 13 fresh off of a bye in week 12. One of the advantages of this late bye week was the extra week for WR Adam Thielen to recover from a hamstring injury that has sidelined him in the first quarter of week 7. Since week 8, Stefon Diggs without Thielen has averaged 13.23 PPR fantasy points per game versus 15.44 per game with Thielen in the lineup.
Facing a Seattle defense that allows 35.9 PPR points per game to opposing WR’s this game shapes up as a game for Diggs and Thielen to both produce. The fact that the Seahawks and their 29th ranked pass defense has to contend with both the Vikings wideouts, benefits the entire Vikings passing game. Diggs is the one I have the most confidence in this week, thus the start here.
Will Fuller Houston Texans WR36 118.00 PPR Fantasy Points
Fuller the often injured Texans wideout came back into the lineup with a bang last week to the tune of 7 catches for 140 yards. When healthy Fuller, is as good a WR as there is and is a threat to go off weekly. The exception to that rule is likely this week versus the Patriots pass defense. Ranked 2nd in the league allowing 158 yards passing per game, and tops in points allowed to the WR (24.9), the Patriots are a team to avoid at all positions and WR is no exception.
DeVante Parker Miami Dolphins WR23 139.50 PPR Fantasy Points
Parker has been a pleasant surprise for his fantasy mangers this season. Sitting at WR23 through 12 weeks exceeds expectations to say the least. Since UDFA rookie Preston Williams was lost for the season in week 9, Parker has been a top 12 WR. In week 13, the Dolphins face a Philadelphia defense that has been victimized by the pass this season. The Eagles have allowed 38 points per game to the WR position season to date and they are the 12th ranked pass defense in the league.
In recent weeks the Eagles have gotten healthy on defense especially in their secondary and the pass rush has been exceptional. I expect a long day for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins offense and as a result Parker is a player to leave on your bench this week.
Robby Anderson New York Jets WR56 91.50 PPR Fantasy Points
The New York Jets offense is starting to show promise scoring 34 points in each of their last three games. In Week 13, the Jets will face the Cincinnati Bengals’ 21st-ranked pass defense in yards allowed per contest, which gives Darnold an opportunity to extend his hot streak. That bodes well for the Jets wide receivers.
After Anderson’s Week 12 performance, he’s back on the radar as a flex option or WR3 for rosters in need of help at the position.
DeAndre Hopkins Houston Texans WR4 202.50 PPR Fantasy Points
There is no way you can sit DeAndre Hopkins. The reason for the bust call here is simple, Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore is fresh off shutting out Dallas Cowboy WR Amari Cooper last week.
Aside from shutting down Cooper, Gilmore has plenty of evidence to prove he is the best cornerback in the game. Opposing quarterbacks have a 40.6 passer rating when targeting Gilmore, completing only 51.6 percent of their passes for 331 yards and no touchdowns, averaging just 10 yards per completion.
Against top receiving options this season, Gilmore has been excellent. He has held Juju Smith-Shuster to six catches for 78 yards, Robby Anderson to four catches for 21 yards in two games, Odell Beckham to five catches for 52 yards and Terry McLaurin to three catches for 51 yards. Gilmore also has 13 passes defensed and four interceptions this season.
DeAndre Hopkins is one of the best 3-5 WR’s in the game today and I expect him to be near invisible this Sunday.
5. Tight End
Ryan Griffin New York Jets TE14 88.20 PPR Fantasy Points
This is pretty straight forward, and I am sensing that you are seeing a trend in regards to how I see the Jets offense performing this Sunday. Cincinnati is allowing 11.7 points to the opposing TE which is middle of the pack this season. Sam Darnold has developed some chemistry with his big TE, and since the start of week 8, Ryan Griffin is the 3rd highest scoring TE in fantasy (13.72 PPR points/game). Start Griffin he is a good bet for 4-5 catches and a TD this week minimum.
Gerald Everett Los Angeles Rams TE12 89.80 PPR Fantasy Points
Start your Rams is basically what this is all about. You especially start your TE against the Cardinals; it’s become a cheat code this season. Arizona allows a league worst 19.9 points to the TE this season and they have allowed a league high 12 touchdowns to the position in 11 games.
Greg Olsen Carolina Panthers TE7 110.00 PPR Fantasy Points
I have been beating the sit Greg Olsen drum for a few weeks now and the veteran TE has been making be look foolish as a result. Well, I am going back to the well once again this week.
Olsen faces the Redskins defense that is the 10th worst against the TE position this season (12.8/game). I like the entire Panthers passing game here and I see this as a week in which D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey do all the damage. Olsen is the exception. Sitting Olsen against the Redskins won’t be easy especially when you consider the depth of the TE position, but you will be glad you did come Sunday afternoon.
Vance McDonald Pittsburgh Steelers TE23 69.30 PPR Fantasy Points
Vance McDonald has been a disappointment all season long for the Steelers and his fantasy managers. The revolving door at the QB position in Pittsburgh this season certainly hasn’t helped. Delvin Hodges gets the start for the Steelers this week and despite his perceived improvement over Mason Rudolph, I would avoid the passing here all together and that includes the Vance Dance.
Dallas Goedert TE17 79.90 PPR Fantasy Points
Because of the Philadelphia Eagles’ injury-riddled wide receiver corps, Dallas Goedert should continue to see a significant number of targets in the passing attack.
Regardless of the quarterback under center—whether it’s Wentz or backup Josh McCown— they will need to lean on Zach Ertz and Goedert. The former leads the team in catches (67) and receiving yards (712). The latter has the most touchdown receptions (four) on the season.
Before all the injuries struck the Eagles’ wide receiver unit, Goedert held a solid role in the passing offense. This season, he’s started six contests and played 57% of offensive snaps.
In Week 12, Goedert listed second in targets (eight) behind Ertz. If Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor continue to nurse their injuries on the sideline, expect another outing with the one-two punch at tight end to lead the way in Philadelphia’s aerial attack.
Jimmy Graham Green Bay Packers TE19 77.70 PPR Fantasy Points
Jimmy Graham is a shell of his former self. He has totalled 28 catches for 317 yards on the season and hasn’t found the end zone since week seven. The Giants are surprisingly decent against the TE this season despite being a terrible pass defense. The Giants surrender 4th least amount of fantasy points to the TE this season (8.5), while allowing the 3rd most to the WR position (41.6). Look for Aaron Rodgers to lean heavily on Devante Adams and ignore Jimmy Graham on Sunday.
Greg Zuerlein Los Angeles Rams K8 97 Fantasy Points
I am expecting the Los Angeles Rams offense to bounce back in a big way in Week 12 versus the Arizona Cardinals. As a result I like the opportunity for Zuerlein and his big leg to play a part in the scoring. I love kickers kicking indoors late in the season as well.
Harrison Butker Kansas City Chiefs K1 115.00 Fantasy Points
Starting the number 1 scoring kicker is basically a no-brainer but hey these guys are kickers and are rather unpredictable from week to week. I like the Chiefs to beat the Raiders by double digits in this one and when their drives stall I expect Butker to finish them with points.
Ka’imi Fairbairn Houston Texans K16 79 Fantasy Points
In a game where I expect the Patriots defense to dominate the Texans offense, I would think that the opportunities for Fairbairn will be limited. In addition Fairbairn is hitting on only 75% if his FG attempts and 83.9 of his PAT attempts this season. Considering at the time of writing this there is a 70% chance of snow on Sunday, this sit is a rather easy one.
Daniel Carlson Oakland Raiders K23 65 Fantasy Points
Similar to the Fairbairn call, I don’t see the Raiders scoring that often let alone getting into FG range for Dan Carlson. Hitting on 73.3% of his FG attempts and a history of fading in pressure situations, I am avoiding Carlson here.
Philadelphia Eagles DST13 79 Fantasy Points
The Eagles defense is coming off a strong performance, sacking Russell Wilson on six occasions on Sunday. The Eagles face the Dolphins offensive line, which ranks 30th in pass protection. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been sacked 11 times over the last two outings.
The Dolphins have struggled to protect the football, committing five turnovers since Week 10. For the season, Miami has at least one giveaway in all but one contest.
In Weeks 11 and 12 combined, the defense allowed an average 17 points to the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks—two top-eight scoring clubs based on average points per contest. Philadelphia should be able to dominate Miami’s 30th-ranked scoring unit.
Los Angeles Chargers DST24 63 Fantasy Points
The Chargers DST has been one of the more disappointing defensive units this season. Injures have played a part in this. It appears that the Chargers are getting All-Pro Derwin James back for this one. James coming off a rookie season in 2018 in which he established himself as one of the NFL’s most dynamic and versatile defenders is a welcome addition for the Chargers this weekend. In addition it is possible that the Broncos will start Drew Lock for the first time in his career on Sunday. If it isn’t Lock, it will be Brandon Allen and his 3 career appearances under center for Denver. I like the Chargers unit a lot this week.
Atlanta Falcons DST30 42 Fantasy Points
Coming out of their bye week, the Atlanta Falcons appeared to fix their defensive problems. They were the 9th highest scoring DST in week 9 versus the Saints, and the number one unit in week 11 against the Panthers. In week 12 they came back to earth with a 21st place finish against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Look for the Drew Brees and the Saints to establish themselves early and often proving that week 9 was a blip on the radar.
Minnesota Vikings DST 13 79 Fantasy Points
The Vikings defense doesn’t travel well. It also doesn’t have a great amount of success against Russell Wilson. Wilson has averaged 227 yards passing with 2 TD’s against the Vikings, adding 51 rushing yards and .25 of a touchdown per game in the their last 4 meetings.