Next up in our Dynasty Outlook series: J.K. Dobbins 2020 Dynasty Outlook. In Dynasty, there are certain players that tend to hold more uncertainty, or are more divisive than others. The Dynasty Outlook series takes a deeper dive into those players that the RotoHeat community noted as the guys they are most interested in hearing about. Engage with 1,600+ passionate dynasty players and let the RotoHeat content team know what topics YOU want to hear about by visiting our RotoHeat Facebook page.
J.K. Dobbins 2020 Dynasty Outlook
J.K. Dobbins was a beast in high school, posting 4,983 rushing yards and 72 TDs his Sophomore and Junior years. Unfortunately, he was injured his Senior year, but Ohio State had seen enough and went and recruited him hard.
After committing to THE Ohio State University, J.K. picked up right where he’d left off, posting 1,403 yards on the ground and 7 TDs while adding 22 receptions for 135 yards and another TD. He set the single-season rushing record for a Freshman, then fast forward to his Junior year where he set the all-time single-season rushing record, passing Eddie George. He balled out, breaking the 2,000 yard mark by 3 yards while adding a whopping 21 TDs and another 23 receptions for 247 yards and 2 TDs. He earned the honors of First-team All-American, First-team All-Big Ten, the Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award, and finished sixth for the Heisman Trophy.
With the 55th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Baltimore Ravens selected J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ohio State.
J.K. couldn’t have been drafted by a better team, considering the Ravens are such a run heavy and high powered offense. He will start as Mark Ingram’s backup, so he’ll learn a lot from someone who’s continued to find success in this league. I look back a few years when Ingram and Kamara were the most dynamic fantasy duo in New Orleans, and I don’t see why that can’t happen in 2020.
In 2020, I see Dobbins as a possible league winning pick because it wouldn’t be surprising if he became the 1A to Ingram’s 1B. In 2019, the Ravens led the league in rush attempts with 596 with the next closest being the Colts with 471. Dobbins will get his touches and will have a low-end RB1 ceiling in 2020 with a floor of an RB3. Maybe I’m being optimistic, but J.K. is so talented and there are too many rushing attempts to go around in Baltimore for that not to be the case.
J.K. Dobbins Dynasty Outlook – Beyond 2020
J.K. Dobbins has one of the brightest futures in this rookie class as a player who easily could’ve gone 1st overall in rookie drafts. I see top 5 RB potential beyond 2020. He has incredible skills rushing and pass catching skills with a perfect landing spot. A running back of his caliber could be a Kamara or Zeke-esque type fantasy player, a high end RB1. Now will be the lowest you can buy him for during the next 3-4 years, so make it happen. This kid is special and will be a 1,000+ yard rusher year in and year out.
According to the RotoHeat team, J.K. Dobbins’ ADP is #42 overall and #17 among RBs in PPR formats. His value in picks in both 1QB and SuperFlex is a top 5 1st round pick in 2020. I would trade up for him if he falls to pick 3 or higher.
In 1QB leagues, players comparable in value to J.K. are Aaron Jones, Cooper Kupp, D’Andre Swift, Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs, D.K. Metcalf, CeeDee Lamb and Kenyan Drake. A lot of these depend on if you’re in rebuild or win now. I’m taking Dobbins over the other rookies in Swift and Lamb for rebuild. If I’m in a win now mode, I’m trading Dobbins for Drake, Allen or Metcalf with the possibility of Diggs. Out of all of these, Metcalf is my favorite as he fits in the rebuild and win now modes. I don’t like Kupp here, and for Jones, I’d need a little more on top of him.
Players with similar value to Dobbins in SuperFlex leagues are all the players listed above. The only new comparable players are QBs: Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Tannehill. Out of this group, Lock and Cousins are my favorites because I believe Dobbins may outscore Darnold and Tannehill in the coming years. I love Lock’s potential, especially with the weapons they surrounded him with after the draft. Cousins is a gunslinger and always has potential to produce big numbers week in and week out.