Fantasy Football Week 7 Start and Sit
Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 109 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am you host Rob Sullivan. Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts.
I hope everyone is doing well. I have spent the intro to the podcast the past few weeks discussing the impact the Covid-19 has been having on the NFL and the schedule. To be completely honest I have had enough. So although I fully understand that the pandemic isn’t going anywhere, I am making the decision to talk about other items pertaining to Fantasy Football.
The Miami Dolphins are on bye this week, but they are in the news. The team announced that they are making the move to Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback for the remainder of the season. Now I fully expected Tua to see some playing time this season. The main reason I felt this way was due to their schedule and the likelihood that the Dolphins would lose way more than win. I had them at 1-5 at this point, and they are 3-3. Now the movement of their bye week may have played into this.
The Dolphins bye, originally scheduled for Nov. 22 in Week 11, now will come this week when the Dolphins originally were scheduled to face the Los Angeles Chargers. That game against the Chargers has been moved from Week 7 to Week 10 at 1 p.m. Other than that this move makes little to no sense to me. Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing well, and arguably one of the main reasons they have 3 wins. The Dolphins are a game out of the division lead and very much smack dab in the middle of a playoff race in a rebuilding season. Fitz season to date is 138/197 for 1535 yards with 10 TD passes and 7 interceptions. His completion percentage is 70.1% his QBR is 82.5. In his career his highest completion percentage is 66.7% in 2018 as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccanners. His highest QBR, 66.6 a year ago. He is on pace for his best win/lose season since 2015 when he led the Jets to a 10-6 record. By the way, his Offensive Coordinator that season was Chan Gailey, the same man who is the Dolphins OC right now. This is a QB having a career year that suddenly gets handed a clipboard. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the most disrespected QB in the NFL, without question.
So we turn the page to Tua, who I should point out is a QB that I believe will be just fine in this league. My opinion that Fitzpatrick should remain the starter has really nothing to do with Tua. The rookie QB is being set-up to fail here without question. If he succeeds then he is even better than I thought. In terms of fantasy, in Week 8 against the Los Angeles Rams you can not start Tua, in any format unless you play in some weird Dolphins only league. The rest of the Fish, I think will be fine. Biggest winners IMO, are the TE’s and slot guys, biggest losers are DeVante Parker and Preston Williams. After the Rams, the Fish get the Cardinals, Chargers, Broncos, Jets, and Bengals. The earliest you should consider Tua a viable starter in Week 12 against the Jets.
I feel bad for Fitz. I feel bad for his fantasy managers, and I especially feel bad for Dolphins fans. This is not a smart move by Brian Flores. The saving grace here is Flores named Josh Rosen his QB for the rest of season last year, and that move lasted 2 quarters.
I have been playing Fantasy Football for a long time, and I can say that without a doubt Week 6 in 2020 was the worst week I have ever had. I hope that y’all had Derrick Henry, or Justin Jefferson in your lineups. I managed to play against one or both almost everywhere. It wasnt so much that they guys exploded its just that it combined with my rosters doing very little. Good thing is its just one week and there is plenty of time to bounce back.
I haven’t updated you all on the Sully’s 2 Cents listener league in a while. My main man Mark Charbonneau sits alone on top with a 5-1 record. Jason Abild is next at 4-2. I sit in the basement with a 1-5 record, and have scored 122 points less that the other 1-5 club. Easily the worst team in the league and its my league. Doesn’t suck at all.
The RotoHeat Guillotine League is humming along and after 6 weeks we are down to 11 teams. Thankfully I am one of them. I have said this before and I will say it again, the Guillotine League format is amazing, highly recommend it.
Today we are talking start sit for week seven. Week 6 was my best week yet. My QB starts of Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford were ok. Cousins was an ugly as hell QB7, and Stafford disappointed with a QB21 week. My favorite QB sit Carson Wentz was QB4.
Running back was good again, James Robinson and Myles Gaskin were my recommended starts and they delivered with RB9 and RB7 weeks respectively. I had you sitting Malcom Brown and Leonard Fournette, Brown was RB37 and Fournette was inactive.
WR, Start Will Fuller and Justin Jefferson paid off, Fuller was WR3 and Jefferson exploded for 39.6 PPR points and was the top WR overall. Suggesting you sit Travis Fulgham and ranking him WR64 was not. Fulgham was WR9 and appears to be legit. I stumbled at TE with the recommended starts of T.J. Hockenson and Evan Engram, they finished as TE15 and TE27. I had you sit Austin Hooper TE12, and Rob Gronkowski, TE6. I still hate the TE.
Ok, Week seven, here we go!.
Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons
Sully’s Rank: QB9
I was really starting to worry about Matt Ryan. Prior to last week he had looked horrible. from Week’s 3-5 Ryan averaged 10.92 fantasy points a game. Well after those duds he went off last week with four touchdown passes and nearly 32 points against the Vikings. I’m sticking with Ryan this week too, as the Lions will come to Atlanta for a visit. Their defense has allowed 10 touchdown passes and an average of just over 20 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. What’s more, just one opposing quarterback has failed to score at least 18 points against them after six weeks.
Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions
Sully’s Rank: QB12
I am also sticking with Matthew Stafford again this week. I had him as a start last week and he was a disappointment scoring just 12.3 points in Jacksonville. Regasrdless of last week it’s tough to look past a matchup against the Falcons. Their defense has been an absolute mess, giving an average of 345.2 passing yards, a league-high 18 touchdown passes, and the most fantasy points to quarterbacks (29.1 PPG) this season. What’s more, every QB to play a full game against them has scored at least 20 fantasy points. Start Stafford this week.
Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints
Sully’s Rank: QB19
Brees is back from a bye, and many fantasy fans will have to start him. I’d avoid it if at all possible. He has failed to score 16 fantasy points three times this season and ranks just 20th in points per game at quarterback. Brees has also scored fewer than 15 points in 42 percent of his career home games against the Panthers. What’s more, Carolina has allowed the third-fewest points to the position in 2020, and just one signal-caller has scored more than 16.5 points against them. Teams run all over Carolina, they don’t throw. Keep Drew Brees on your bench.
Jared Goff – Los Angeles Rams
Sully’s Rank: QB20
Jared Goff failed to produce a good stat line in last week’s loss to the 49ers. That is the polite way to put it. The reality is he looked terrible against a very beatable San Francisco defense. Now he gets the Bears and this matchup is anything but favorable. Their defense has been money versus the QB, allowing the fewest touchdown passes (4) and fantasy points (11.7 PPG) to the position. What’s more, just one quarterback has scored 16 points against them this season. That list includes Tom Brady, who was held to 14.1 points in Week 5. I’d keep Goff on the fantasy sidelines.
2. Running Backs
Todd Gurley – Atlanta Falcons
Sully’s Rank: RB8
Gurley was ok last week against the Vikings, scoring fewer than 10 fantasy points in the win. His offense was too busy shredding the Vikings laughable secondary. Still, he leads all Falcons runners in snaps and touches and continues to see plenty of volume. I like his as a top-10 RB this week. The Falcons host a Lions defense that’s allowed seven total touchdowns and the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. Four opposing backs have put up 15-plus points against them, including three who scored over 20 points. Gurley is about to make that four.
Justin Jackson – Los Angeles Chargers
Sully’s Rank: RB18
If you prefer to start Joshua Kelley here I can’t say I would fight you, but it was Jackson that led the Chargers backfield in snaps, touches, and fantasy points before their bye week. Regardless, either can be plugged in as a starter this week when they host the Jaguars. I like Jackson as a RB2 and Kelley as more of a flex play. Jacksonville has struggled to stop running backs, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. Last week, their defense surrendered a combined 40.1 points to the dynamic duo of D’Andre Swift (27.3 points) and Adrian Peterson (12.8).
Darrell Henderson – Los Angeles Rams
Sully’s Rank: RB37
Darrell Henderson continued to be the Rams featured back last week, leading the team with 32 snaps and 14 touches. Still, the threat of losing touches to Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers looms, and a matchup against the Bears isn’t a favorable one. Their defense has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, and not a single back has scored more than 15.6 points against them. You might get 10-14 points from Henderson, but he’s a low-ceiling flex option this week.
Damien Harris – New England Patriots
Sully’s Rank: RB38
Damien Harris is worth a roster spot in most leagues, but he’s a mere matchup-based starter at this point. Last week, he played just 11 snaps and saw seven touches in a loss to the Broncos. That lack of volume isn’t going to get it done. Harris also has a bad matchup next on the schedule, as the Niners come in to visit Foxboro Stadium. Their defense has been tough on running backs, surrendering just 3.4 yards per attempt and the fewest fantasy points to the position this season. Harris has 119 rushing yards on 23 attempts, 5.17 yards-per-carry. 41 of those yards came on one play, back that baby out and its 22 attempts for 78 yards or 3.54 yards-per-carry. Harris is an easy sit.
3. Wide Receiver
Terry McLaurin – Washington Football Team
There are guys I am wrong about more often than I care to admit. Enter Terry McLaurin. Last week McLaurin put up nearly 15 fantasy points against the Giants, and finished his week as the WR14 season to date. This week, I expect him to be even better as the Football Team hosts the Cowboys and their laughable defense. Dallas has been awful against receivers lined up out wide, allowing nine touchdowns and the second-most fantasy points to the position. A total of seven receivers have scored at least 13.8 points against them while lined out wide, including four with at least 19.
Tyler Boyd – Cincinnati Bengals
Sully’s Rank: WR20
I wasn’t crazy about Tyler Boyd last week vs Indy, and he finished with the third-most points among Bengals wideouts behind Tee Higgins and A.J. Green. I am projecting him to rebound this week though, as a matchup against the Browns is very favorable. Their defense has allowed the second-most fantasy points to slot receivers, including a 20.2-point performance from Boyd in Week 2. For what it is worth, Boyd has put up an average of 16.5 fantasy points in his last four games against the Browns. Lets go for 5 in week 7.
Deebo Samuel – San Francisco 49ers
Sully’s Rank: WR40
Samuel looked to be over his foot issues last week. He caught six passes for 66 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. While that’s good to see on the surface, I wouldn’t rush to get him into your starting lineups when the Niners face the Patriots. Their defense hasn’t allowed a single receiver to score 12 fantasy points in a game on out-wide routes. That’s the Stephon Gilmore effect. So, unless you’re really in need at wideout, Samuel is better left on the bench.
Henry Ruggs – Las Vegas Raiders
Sully’s Rank: WR56
The last time we saw Ruggs, he put up 118 yards and a touchdown in a win over the Chiefs. Nice stat line for sure. The reality is he did it on three targets, and Ruggs has averaged 3.7 targets per game on the season. So, Ruggs has to hit on something big in the vertical attack to make a fantasy impact. That is unlikely yo happen against the Buccaneers, who have allowed the ninth-fewest points to wideouts and haven’t allowed a catch of more than 47 yards to the position in 2020. Derek Carr will be feeding the likes of Darren Waller and his slot guys as he deals with the Bucs pass rush. The odds a play develops enabling Ruggs to haul in a deep one is very unlikely.
4. Tight Ends
Hunter Henry – Los Angeles Chargers
Sully’s Rank: TE4
Henry has avoided injuries to this point and has become a reliable target in the pass attack for rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. That’s a good reason why he’s targeting tight ends nearly eight times per game. Henry, who ranks fifth at the position in targets per game, is in a good spot to post a nice line when the Jaguars visit Hollywood. Their defense has struggled against tight ends, allowing an average of more than 15 points per game. Coming off a bye, Henry is a solid choice.
Rob Gronkowski – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sully’s Rank: TE7
I have listed Rob Gronkowski as a sit many times this season. Well its start time, Gronk all of a sudden is a thing again. O.J. Howard is gone for the season and Cameron Brate didn’t step up like I thought he would a week ago. The TE that did step up was Gronkowski, he put up 18.80 PPR points in Week 6, which ranked 6th at the position. He had a 30% targets share vs. Green Bay, and he has seen over 18% in the last 4. The way he started his return from retirement I figured he was washed and nothing more than a great blocking TE. Perhaps he just needed to get his legs under him. He looks good recently and I am firing him up in Week 7 against the Raiders.
Tyler Higbee – Los Angles Rams
Sully’s Rank: TE15
Higbee led the Rams in receiving last week, but it wasn’t much (56 yards) as Jared Goff failed to throw for even 200 yards. He’s also sharing more of the workload with Gerald Everett, who has more targets than Higbee during the last two weeks. Couple that with a matchup against the Bears, and Higbee and Everett are both better left to the sidelines in Week 7. Their defense has allowed an average of 48 yards per game to the position, and only two tight ends have hit double-digit points.
Jared Cook – New Orleans Saints
Sully’s Rank: TE17
Cook is difficult to sit during the bye weeks, but I’d temper expectations for his fantasy prospects against the Panthers. Their defense has been tough on pass catchers, including tight ends, allowing just two touchdowns and 10.5 fantasy points per game. In fact, this unit has held Jimmy Graham, Hayden Hurst, and Rob Gronkowski all under nine fantasy points this season. Drew Brees also ranks just 27th among qualified quarterbacks in targeting tight ends, so Cook is a risk this week.
That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for reading Fantasy Football Week 7 Start and Sit
If you have yet to subscribe to Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast you can do so by searching for it pretty much everywhere podcasts can be found. A rating and review of the podcast is greatly appreciated.
In addition you can find me on twitter @RotoHeatSully, in both the RotoHeat Dynasty Fantasy Football group, and the RotoHeat Redraft Fantasy Football group, over on Facebook and you can find me in our Discord group @Sully.
Please be sure to subscribe to the RotoHeat YouTube channel and hit the notification bell when you do so that you do not miss any of our great content on YouTube. Brad Menendez is a work horse bringing you player profiles as well as his weekly start/sit videos. Brad is also the host of the Fantasy Inferno Live Stream Wednesday nights at 9:30 EST with Rob Silvers, Bryce Frazier and myself.
I will be back next week with Week 8 Start and Sits. Until then, good luck in week 7, stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers.