Fantasy Football Week 4 Start and Sit
Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 106 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am you host Rob Sullivan. Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts.
Well we have been preparing ourselves for Covid-19 to impact the 2020 NFL season and it has, as the Week 4 contest between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Tennesee Titans has been postponed to some point later this season.
The most likely scenario will have these two teams face each other in Week 7. Previous to the postponement of this game, the Titans had a Week 7 bye and the Steelers had a bye in Week 8. The Steelers are currently scheduled to face the Baltimore Ravens in Week 7 and the Ravens are on bye in Week 8. So move Steelers-Titans to Week 7 and Steelers-Ravens to Week 8.
Now I know that there are a lot of fantasy managers forced to scramble as a result of this, Derrick Henry, Ben Roethlisberger, Juju Smith-Shuster, Jonnu Smith etc. are not available for you. It sucks I get it. It’s also just one week. The only time you really need to worry about one week is when you are trying to get into the playoffs or the week is a playoff matchup itself.
The other bright side here is your Titans and Steelers assets are now available to you in Week 7 and Week 8 when previously they were not. Week 7 there were 4 teams to be on bye, now its 3. In week 8 there were 6 teams on bye and now there are 5.
It’s a hell of a lot easier to manage this with only two teams on bye versus 4 or 6. If you have to take the L in week 4 so be it. You’ll be ok and the sun will still come up in the east on Monday morning.
Today we are talking start sit for week four. I won’t be telling you to start Alvin Kamara and sit Lynn Bowden Jr., those are no brainer decisions. I will be sharing with you all two to start and two to sit at four skilled positions that I feel are real-life decisions that you may have to make.
As usual I had some hits and misses last week, starting Cam Newton and Big Ben were not good suggestions as they finished as QB28 and QB14. My sits of Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield were decent calls as Watson was QB17 and Baker was QB22.
Running Back start Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake and sit Todd Gurley and Ronald Jones. Well henry was RB5, but Drake was RB32. Gurley was RB18 and Rojo was RB31. Overall, not great at the RB spot.
My Wide Receivers calls last week were to start Mike Evans and CeeDee Lamb. Evans was WR34, and Lamb was Wr42, by the way who the hell is Cedrick Wilson Jr.? My sits Hollywood Brown and Marvin Jones Jr were WR94, and WR59.
TE we had Noah Fant and Jonnu Smith as starts and Chris Herndon and Austin Hooper as sits. Fant TE14, Smith TE9, Herndon TE36 and Hooper TE32. Not a bad TE week.
I need to get better at this and what the hell let’s start that this week in Week 4.
Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals
Sully’s Rank: QB11
Joe Burrow is the real deal and he proved it again in Week 3, scoring 20-plus points in his second straight game. Burrow, who ranks second in the league in pass attempts (47 PG), is well worth a look when he faces the Jaguars. Their defense has been brutal against quarterbacks, allowing a league-high 118.6 passer rating and nearly 23 fantasy points per game to the position. Burrow could be a top-12 option.
Ryan Fitzpatrick – Miami Dolphins
Sully’s Rank: QB13
Fantasy owners in deep leagues or super flex, 2QB leagues should start Fitzpatrick this week. He is also viable in 1QB leagues and a solid DFS play this week to boot. He’s averaged nearly 25 fantasy points over the last two weeks, during which time the Beard has completed 73.1 percent of his passes and scored five touchdowns. Seattle has allowed eight total touchdowns and the second-most points (28.6 PPG) to quarterbacks, so Fitzpatrick is a nice streamer in a game with an over/under at 54.
Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings
Sully’s Rank: QB19
Cousins rebounded well in last week’s loss to the Titans with three touchdown passes and 21.44 fantasy points. However, I wouldn’t chase the points as he faces a Texans defense that’s surrendered an average of 19.1 points per game to quarterbacks despite facing Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Ben Roethlisberger to start the season. The over/under is set at 53, but I still have concerns about Cousins this week with limited practice and it being a road game.
Carson Wentz – Philadelphia Eagles
Sully’s Rank: QB20
On the surface it looked like Carson Wentz had a nice week last week scoring 23.5 fantasy points. However it took him five quarters to do it. He’s simply not playing good football right now, and it shows with his six interceptions against just three touchdown passes. This week he’ll travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers, who have allowed just 15.5 fantasy points to quarterbacks despite all the injuries on the defensive side of the football. Wentz is simply too much of a risk to start outside of superflex or multi-quarterback formats.
2. Running Backs
Kenyan Drake – Arizona Cardinals
Sully’s Rank: RB5
I am going back the well once again here with Drake knowing full well that the dude is currently RB 28, and that he has been a massive disappointment thus far. I know a lot of people took him at the end of the first round, late-second at worst. I am one of those guys and I did it in multiple leagues. We need to see some return on investment. The good news is Drake is still playing the majority of the snaps by a large margin, for the Cards. He was in a walking boot in training camp and perhaps that impacted his early season start.
Here is the deal, the Panthers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season. They have allowed seven touchdowns to running backs this season, which is the most in the NFL. If you don’t start Drake this week you never will.
Austin Ekeler – Los Angeles Chargers
Sully’s Rank: RB10
Anthony Lynn keeps saying that when healthy, Tyrod Taylor is his starting quarterback. Now I was one of the guys who was high on Tyrod entering the season, I was dead wrong. I was also high on Austin Ekeler and it appears I was dead right, if Justin Herbert is his quarterback. If you have Austin Ekeler on your fantasy rosters you Justin Herbert in the lineup. It might not be fair to Tyrod. What, with a one-game sample size.
Ekeler has been great since Herbert took over as the team’s quarterback. Ekeler has averaged 7.5 targets with Herbert. And he’s got a great matchup with the Bucs, who have allowed the fourth-most receptions tor running backs this season and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to running backs. Fire him up this week, as Tyrod remains out with injury.
Mark Ingram – Baltimore Ravens
Sully’s Rank: RB26
Remember last season when Ingram was an absolute stud? Well, a lot has changed. The veteran finds himself smack dab in the middle of a three-headed backfield committee that’s seen him lose work to both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. While Ingram leads the trio in touches (28), he’s averaging 8.7 attempts and is sharing red-zone work with Dobbins. Washington’s defense hasn’t been great against backs, but it has allowed just 123.7 scrimmage yards a game to the position. If Ingram doesn’t score you’ll be sorry you started him.
Antonio Gibson – Washington Football Team
Sully’s Rank: RB29
As much as I’m a fan of Gibson, who has scored in each of his last two games, this week’s matchup against the Ravens is hard to ignore. This defense has been tough on opposition running backs dating back to last season, allowing an average of just 18.7 fantasy points per game to the position. Gibson still isn’t seeing a featured back’s snap totals (26 in Week 3) or touches (12 in Week 3) either, so inserting into your lineup this week is not advised. At best, he’ll be a risk-reward flex starter, with much more risk than reward.
3. Wide Receiver
D.K. Metcalf – Seattle Seahawks
Ok, so I know all DK Metcalf Fantasy Managers like myself are wondering what could have been last week, had Metcalf had a little less mustard on the hot dog and actually secured the football into the endzone where is was stripped away. I get it. Now, don’t let that one play take away from the fact that he’s been an monster this season, sitting at WR6. He’s in a great spot to continue that success too, as the Seahawks travel to South Beach to take on an accomodating Miami defense. After three weeks, the Dolphins have allowed an average of 21.1 fantasy points to receivers who line up out wide. Consider Metcalf has #1 overall upside at his position this week.
DeVante Parker – Miami Dolphins
Sully’s Rank: WR17
So anyone who knows me, knows I hate DeVante Parker. Now when I say I love or hate a player I am referring to his fantasy value. In the case of I actually hate the man. Been burned far too often. Even I cannot ignore the opportunity here. Parker has been less than 100 percent in recent weeks, but he’s still posted five catches in back to back games and has had 10 days to rest for a this matchup against the Seahawks.
It’s a very attractive matchup too, as their defense has allowed an average of 11.3 catches, 179 yards, and a league-high 31.3 fantasy points per game to receivers lined out wide. That’s where Parker has run 82 percent of his routes this season. This one has an over/under of 54 points to boot. Added little bonus, Preston Williams is a great start as well.
A.J. Green – Cincinnati Bengals
Sully’s Rank: WR38
This looks like a get-right game for the struggling Green, at least on the surface. However, the numbers might suggest a different outcome. The Jaguars have allowed an average of just 71 yards per game and one touchdown to receivers lined out wide, and the position has produced a modest 16.7 fantasy points a game. What’s more, Green basically played the same number of snaps as Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins last week and was outscored by both! Green is a risk-reward No. 3. I am starting both Higgins and Boyd over Green this week.
Justin Jefferson – Minnesota Vikings
Sully’s Rank: WR49
I’m a Vikings fan. I was super pumped to watch what Justin Jefferson did a week ago against the Titans when he had seven catches for 175 yards and a touchdown on nine targets, but I am not chasing last week and starting him in Week 4 against the Houston Texans. The Texans have been great against opposing receivers so far. While Houston has allowed three touchdowns to Sammy Watkins, Tyreek Hill and JuJu Smith-Schuster, only Watkins has more than 50 receiving yards, including a matchup with Marquise Brown as well. Jefferson should be owned Fantasy team where available, and hopefully he continues to produce at a high level moving forward, but Week 4 is a week to avoid him if at all possible.
4. Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson – Detroit Lions
Sully’s Rank: TE8
Hockenson lost a touchdown to Jesse James and didn’t put up a huge line last week against the Cardinals, but the good news is he was targeted seven times and played 55 snaps. I like him as a starter this week, as the Saints visit Ford Field in a game with an over/under of 54. New Orleans has been smashed by Darren Waller (28.5 points) and Robert Tonyan (16 points) over the last two weeks, this unit has been vulnerable to tight ends (27.3 PPG) in 2020. So we are banking on the trend to continue and are firing up T.J this week.
Hunter Henry – Los Angeles Chargers
Sully’s Rank: TE8
Henry posted a modest 10 fantasy points last week, and he’s now scored double-digit points in four straight games dating back to 2019. He’s also fourth among tight ends in targets (23), and Justin Herbert has leaned on him in the passing game since his insertion into the starting lineup. This week’s matchup looks good too, as the Buccaneers have surrendered a combined 10 catches to Jared Cook and Noah Fant in their two 2020 games facing fantasy-relevant tight ends.
Hayden Hurst – Atlanta Falcons
Sully’s Rank: TE16
It was good that Hurst scored in Week 3 against Chicago, and he’s now scored in back-to-back games heading into Week 4 against the Packers. But he only had three targets against the Bears, and his 1-yard touchdown was his only catch. Maybe he sees an uptick in targets and production if Julio Jones (hamstring) and Russell Gage (concussion) are out this week, but the Packers have yet to allow a tight end to score, including matchups with Hockenson and Jared Cook in the past two games.
For the season, Green Bay has only allowed 11 catches for 139 yards to opposing tight ends on 12 targets. Hurst is a low-end starter at best in all leagues, and if you can get away from him this week I suggest that you do.
Austin Hooper – Cleveland Browns
Sully’s Rank: TE19
This week’s matchup against the Cowboys on paper looks appealing, but Hooper’s usage (or lack thereof) is of serious concern. He ranks 23rd in routes run among tight ends, and nearly half of the snaps he plays are run plays. That’s not a surprise in an offense with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and a quarterback in Baker Mayfield, who is 27th in pass attempts. So while Dallas is a vulnerable opponent because of its weak defense, Hooper remains a sit. One can not quite figure out why the Browns signed him to the deal they did this offseason
That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for reading Fantasy Football Week 4 Start and Sit
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I will be back next week with Week 5 Start and Sits. Until then, good luck in week 4, stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers.