Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit NFC
Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 119 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts.
If you are reading this, chances are you are alive and kicking and preparing for Week 16, the Fantasy Finals. Congratulations!! This crazy fantasy season is almost over and let’s end this with you winning the ship!.
This week is what it is all about and as a result I am going to review every game on the NFL schedule and give you all my 2 cents on the fantasy relevant assets in those games.
Just a reminder that as the fantasy season wears down, we here at RotoHeat are just warming up. This podcast will remain and take on a more dynasty focus in the coming weeks. In addition we have the RotoHeat YouTube Channel that will continue with our livestreams and soon start rolling our our 2021 Rookie Profile videos. The team is hard at work crunching film and getting rookiedraftguide.com ready for you all. This team led by Rick Butts and Brad Menendez is putting together a rookie draft guide unlike anything seen before.
Now with that said, here are my Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit NFC recommendations
1. NFC Home Games
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Saints -7 Over/Under 52
Vikings- Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson are must start options. The Saints are a legit defense but let’s be real who are you starting off your roster over these two? Cook is RB2 on the season (.30 points behind Alvin Kamara), averaging 24.72 PPR points a game and Justin Jefferson has 6 games with over 100 receiving yards, just broke the Vikings rookie pass catching record previously held by Randy Moss, and sits at WR8 overall through 15 weeks in his rookie season.
Adam Thielen is a start as is Kirk Cousins in super-flex or two QB formats. Thielen has been over-shadowed by Justin Jefferson in recent weeks, but the dude is still WR12 on the season averaging 16.96 PPR points a game. What makes 19 a little risky and not a must start option is his dependence on the TD. He has scored 13 times this season, in 13 games played. In the 9 games he has at least one touchdown he is averaging 21.63 points and the 4 in which he has failed to score he is giving you on average 6.48 points.
Cousins in all likelihood is going to have to throw more often than normal if the Vikings want a shot to win this one. Cousins has attempted on average 31 passes a game this season which in all honestly surprises me, I figured it would have been much lower. In games he has attempted 30 or more passes he has averaged 21.18 points in 4 point/pass TD scoring leagues. His season long average is 18.66 points/game. I wouldn’t run him out there is a one QB league, but in SF if he is your No.2 QB you are in good shape. Sit the rest of the Minnesota Vikings offense in this one.
Saints- Alvin Kamara is a must start. Kamara is the top scoring RB on the season, and has bounced back to his normal self in recent weeks with 17.70, 22.40, and 18.40 fantasy points the last three weeks. Drew Brees is back under center and Michael Thomas is on IR. Kamara is going to see a lot of work in this one against a vulnerable Vikings defense. Minnesota has allowed 140 yards and 24.4 points per game against opposing back this season. Eric Kendricks is likely out again making this matchup even better for the Saints.
Drew Brees, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook and Latavius Murray should all be started on strongly considered. Brees as long as he is able to make it thru the game is a near must start option. Vikings allow 18.6 points to the QB. Sanders without Thomas is the primary target for New Orleans and Minnesota is 8th worst against the WR allowing 40.4 points a game to the position and a league leading 23 touchdowns. If you are desperate Tre’Quan Smith could be a flex play here. Jared Cook is a back end TE1 this week, that I don’t love but the matchup says he is. Minnesota has been decent against the TE in 2020 but without Hendricks and how Brees likes Cook in the red zone he’s worth a look. Finally Latavius Murray, the Vikings are giving up 140 yards on the ground a game and have allowed 10 rushing scores. Murray is a Rb3 flex play in this revenge game. Sit the remainder of your New Orleans Saints here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Buc -8.0 Over/Under 53.5
Bucs- Damn near everyone with a two feet and a heartbeat is a must start in this Bucs offense. The Lions are 4th worst against the QB, worst against the RB including a league worst 25 total TDs, 4th worst against the WR, and 6th best against the TE. Brady is a must start, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are as well. If Ronald Jones is healthy he is also a must start back.
If Rojo is out Leonard Fournette is a start, Antonio Brown is a start once again, Scott Miller is a desperation flex play and Rob Gronkowski, is a hope for the best i.e. a touchdown type of TE start. I am sitting the remainder of the Bucs here.
Lions- Not a lot here I want to start. D’Andre Swift is the closest thing they have to a must start but he is facing a really tough Bucs run defense that is 6th best in fantasy points allowed to the RBs and a team that has allowed the least rushing yards in the league. Marvin Jones Jr. is a RB2 type of start and TJ Hockenson should remain in your lineup regardless of last weeks disappointment. Matthew Stafford should be considered for a No.2 QB spot in multiple QB leagues and nothing more.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Cards -4.0 Over/Under 49
Niners- One must start and that is Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk is fresh off a 30% target share last week, and simple out has been on fire. His last three games; 20.50, 21.90, and 22.30 PPR points. since week 7 his worst fantasy day is 17.50 PPR points. In only 11 games played the rookie is WR29 overall. His 16.40 weekly average is 13th best. If George Kittle is active he is a must start because well he is George Kittle.
Other Niners to consider, Jeffrey Wilson. Raheem Mostert is back on IR and Tevin Coleman is well, Tevin Coleman. Wilson should see a pile of work against a defense that allows 126 yards a game and 22 fantasy points to the RB. Nick Mullens is out and CJ Beathard is in, doesn’t matter you shouldn’t start either. Sit the remainder of this offense and consider Jordan Reed id Kittle isn’t active.
Cards- Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are a must for obvious reasons. Kyler is my QBX, and Hopkins is my WR3 this week. Start Kenyan Drake, I have hit at RB21, and Chase Edmonds RB29. Other tahn Nuk, I would prefer to fade the Cards WR crew. I have Christian Kirk at WR51, and Larry Fitzgerald at WR86. Kirk could be a desperation flex play if you are stuck. Since three straght 20+ fantasy points outing in weeks 6,7,and 9, he has averaged 5.42 PPR points a week.
Dan Arnold my TE24 is a sit, the Niners are a horrible matchup here and I need to be able to trust my TE in finals week more than I would starting Arnold.
Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers
Packers -3.5 Over/Under 56.0
Titans- There are three must start options for the Titans. Ryan Tannehill my QB10, Derrick Henry my RB1, and AJ Brown my WR10. Tannehill has been smoking hot recently and quite possibly one of the reason you are in your Championship Final. Derrick Henry, man is a beast and he only gets better as the season progresses. AJ Brown WR14 on the season entering this week. He is averaging 17.34 points per game in his 12 games this season which is 8th best.
Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith are also options for you. Davis has been great this season and a steal in the late rounds of your drafts. Daivs is WR28 on the year, a year in which he has missed two games, and another where he scored no points. His 15.21 PPG average has him at WR17.
Jonnu has struggled of late. He has missed a game due to injury and had several bad ones as well. He was TE8 through the first 8 weeks (7 games), and he is TE18 since Week 9. The matchup isn’t ideal but TE is a garbage position and Jonnu my TE12 is likely better in your lineup that the alternative.
Packers- Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Devante Adams are must starts. Rodgers and Adams especially should be motivated after a down week against Carolina. I have Rodgers at QB3, and Adams is my top WR this week. Aaron Jones is my RB5 this week. Jamaal Williams is likely out and Jones should see an above average workload. I would start him regardless of workload but with this likely increase you start him with confidence.
The rest of the Packers offer some fantasy value and interest. Start with Robert Tonyan. I would call him a must start but he is my TE7 this week. Said it before and it is worth mentioning again, Aaron Rodgers loves Robert Tonyan. If Tonyan s good enough for Rodgers he’s good enough for me. Allen Lazard is my WR44 and should be in the flex conversation, and Marquez Valdes Scantling at WR55 is destine for my fantasy bench this week. I started MVS last week and he had one target and zero catches.
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Football Team
WFT -2.5 Over/Under 44
Panthers – Will Christian McCafferty play this week. That is the million dollar question. If you have made your finals without your first round pick, good on ya. There are leagues where he was dealt. regardless if its redraft or dynasty if you have CMC on your roster you want him in your lineup. CMC is averaging 30.13 PPR points a game in his 3 games this season. His Week 2 24.80 PPR point outing is his worst of the season. Simply put if he plays you start him.
Mike Davis is an option if CMC sits, if he doesn’t I would likely sit Davis. I have Davis ranked at RB19 currently and I haven’t ranked CMC. I dont expect him to play, those rankings will clearly cahnge is CCM is active.
I am sitting Teddy Bridgewater. I have him at QB23. I see the Washington front 7 making his day a long one. At WR, start D.J. Moore (WR15), Robby Anderson (WR26), and Curtis Samuel (WR30). It seems odd to start the QB and start all the receivers, but I see a role for all three that can pay off for you. Moore based off my rankings is the preferred choice here. Sit the rest of the Panthers offense
Football Team- The Football Team is a hard one to figure out this week. Starting with QB, who is their QB this week? Alex Smith is hurting and missed last week, Dwyane Haskins is hanging out in strip clubs after finally getting his starting job back. Haskin is facing team discipline for being in the club without a mask. If both of Smith and Haskins are unavailable it will be Taylor Heinicke who was activated from the practice squad last. Heinicke hasn’t played since last year’s preseason.
If Heinicke starts I am sitting all WFT guys. The lone exception might be Logan Thomas and Terry McLaurin. If Smith starts, add JD McKissic to that list. Currently I have Haskins at QB31, McKissic at RB19, McLaurin at WR13, and Thomas at TE5. I have zero interest in the remainder of the Football Team’s guys in Week 16.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Seahawks -2.5 Over/Under
Rams- Start Goff, Henderson, Woods and Kupp. Goff for some reason loves the Seahawks as an opponent, perhaps its the lack of pass rush from Seattle that he enjoys. I have Goff at 15 so I like him but I certainly don’t love him.
With Cam Akers on the shelf this week, Darrell Henderson is the likely the benefactor. Its another like not love situation as Henderson is my RB24. Robert Woods is my WR9, and he is a must start. Cooper Kupp is WR19, I feel really good about him this week as well. No team in football gives up more points to the WR position than Seattle. The Seahawks although better of late have given up on average 45.4 points a game to the WR position and have surrendered 13 touchdowns in 14 games. Josh Reynolds my WR79 is not an option regardless of the juicy match-up.
That leave the TEs, Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everette. Higbee is TE18 this week and Everette is TE27. I would prefer to sit both although I understand why some of you would start Higbee. Higbee did well last week scoring 16.70 PPR points. It is worth noting that Higbee the TE17 entering the week has 3 double digit fantasy performances in 13 games this season.
Seahawks- Normally with Russell Wilson on my roster he is a no-brainer start each and every week. This week I am very hesitant. Wilson is my QB11 and when I finish my rankings this week, possibly lower. Russ hasn’t been cooking recently. Looking at his numbers he hasn’t even been in the kitchen. Weeks 1-9 Wilson was QB3 averaging 29.52 points per game. Since Week 10 he is QB15 averaging 16.43 points per game. Those 16.43 are 20th best. Wilson has one top-10 performance since week 8 if you have a better option this week, take it.
Chris Carson is not the same since his foot injury, but he is still a starting option. I have him at RB16. Carlos Hyde is a flex in deep leagues I have him at RB45, and Rashaad Penny has no business in your lineups he’s my RB73.
At Wide Receiver you are starting DK Metcalf, but you likely are not overly pumped doing so. He is an elite WR but he is facing the Rams and likely drawing Jalen Ramsey as a result. DK has given his fantasy managers double digit fantasy points in all but two weeks this season. Week 7 in Arizona (when Tyler Lockett went bonkers with 53 points), and Week 10 against Ramsey and the Rams. DK had 4 targets 2 catches and 28 yards in Week 10, his worst game of the season. I have DK at WR12 this week and he is in all my lineups where I have him as an option.
Tyler Lockett however I am not quite sure if he is. Lockett is WR26 for me this week, and I can’t help but think I have him too high. Lockett is averaging 16.07 points per game, he is WR11 on the season. He also had 53 points in a single contest. Since that Week 7 explosion, Lockett has averaged 10.48 points per game and is WR32. Lockett has finished as a top-30 WR once since October.
Forget the TEs this week as well. Nothing start worthy here.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Eagles -1.5 Over/Under 49.5
Eagles- Jalen Hurst has started the last two for the Eagles. 19.28 points in a win over New Orleans, and 37.82 points in Week 15 at Arizona (tops in the league). His 57.10 points the last two weeks are second only to Lamar Jackson and his 64.14. Start Hurts with the utmost confidence this week in Dallas. Dallas has been better of late but remains 20th against the QB allowing on average 20.1 points per game. Hurts is my QB6 this week. I would start Hurts over Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson to name a few.
Miles Sanders saw 100% of his teams rushing carries last week for the first time all season. He now get Dallas, 6th worst against the RB. The cowboys are giving up on average 106 yards on the ground, 243 through the air and have allowed 14 touchdowns to the RB in 14 games. Sanders my RB7 is a must start.
Wide Receiver is a solid meh, just ask ant Eagles fan. The tops would be Greg Ward WR65. Hurts likes Greg ward and as a result he is the best of a bunch of non stating WRs. Alshon Jeffrey (WR), Jalen Reagor (WR84), and Travis Fulgham (WR93), are not options I suggest.
Dallas Goedert is an option. I have Goedert at TE8 this week. Zach Ertz however I’d prefer to sit, he is my TE19 in Week 16.
Cowboys- Andy Dalton is my QB26 this week. I would prefer to sit him. Ezekiel Elliott who was a late scratch las week is my RB71, basically at this point I don’t expect him to play. Tony Pollard as a result is RB19 and a player I would start.
Wide Receiver, I like two of the three. I just don’t love them. Amari Cooper leads the way at WR25 this week followed by CeeDee Lamb at WR38, and Michael Gallup at WR72.
Dalton Schultz is my TE16 and I would prefer not to start him. He is a TE with a pulse so I wont blame anyone for rolling with him.
That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for reading Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit NFC.
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I will be back in the New Year Heat Seekers. I am going to take the rest of he Holiday season off. Good luck in week 16, go get the W, and make your fantasy finals! Have a very safe and happy Holiday Season, take care.