Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit AFC
Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 118 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts.
If you are reading this, chances are you are alive and kicking and preparing for Week 16, the Fantasy Finals. Congratulations!! This crazy fantasy season is almost over and let’s end this with you winning the ship!.
This week is what it is all about and as a result I am going to review every game on the NFL schedule and give you all my 2 cents on the fantasy relevant assets in those games.
Just a reminder that as the fantasy season gears down, we here at RotoHeat are just warming up. This podcast will remain and take on a more dynasty focus in the coming weeks, and months. In addition we have the RotoHeat YouTube Channel that will continue with our livestreams and soon start rolling out our 2021 Rookie Profile videos.
The team is hard at work crunching film and getting rookiedraftguide.com ready for you all. This team led by Rick Butts and Brad Menendez is putting together a rookie draft guide unlike anything seen before.
Now with that said, here are my Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit recommendations
1. AFC Home Games
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders
Miami -2.5 Over/Under 47.5
This one was shaping up as an important battle for the two AFC clubs as they battle for a wildcard spot. It is now only important for the Dolphins. Miami enters at 9-5 and the 7th seed in the AFC. They are desperate for a win as they try to hold off the 8th seeded Baltimore Ravens also at 9-5.
Miami – The Dolphins don’t have a must start option in their offense even against the accommodating Raiders defensive unit. As of right now I am not certain of the status of Myles Gaskin, Devante Parker, and Mike Gesicki. Gaskin tested positive for Covid last week, Parker and Gesicki are doubtful.
If all are out I am starting Salvon Ahmed, he’s in the RB2 conversation and I would consider Lynn Bowden Jr. as a hope and pray flex option. Tua is a fringe QB1 this week I have him at QB15. I would prefer not to start him in 1QB leagues but he has produced the past two weeks with QB4, and QB15 finishes.
Las Vegas – for the Raiders its Josh Jacobs, and Darren Waller. Jacobs is a little banged up but he is likely the best RB on your roster and he is RB7 on the season averaging 15.65 points per game. Don’t over think it start him. As for Waller, this dude is sick. We throw the term fantasy stud around a little too loosely in this industry in my opinion, but Waller is absolutely one of them.
For the first time all season he is my top ranked TE this week. Marcus Mariota is back end QB2 that if in a pinch is viable this week. Miami is tough and motivated this week. Things will be much tougher for Mariota that they were a week ago against the Chargers. Finally Nelson Agholor is a flex option for the truly desperate. Sit the rest of your Raiders here
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets
Cleveland -9.0 Over/Under 46.5
Browns- In a match-up versus the Jets there is a lot to like here for the Browns. Baker Mayfield leads the way as a must start QB. The past four weeks, Baker has posted 4 consecutive QB1 weeks for the first time in his career. He makes it 5 in Week 16. I would start Baker over Drew Brees, Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson this week. He is my QB10 this week. Nick Chubb is a must start as my RB11, and Kareem Hunt is my RB18 so fire him up as well.
Other starts for the Browns — Jarvis Landry, any podcast I get to talk about Jarvis is a good one. I have my fantasy BFF at WR14 so get him in your lineup, and Rashard Higgins has really come on of late coinciding with Baker’s rise and he is my WR36. He is a nice RB3/Flex option. I am not crazy about the Browns at TE, but if you need one it is Austin Hooper who I have at TE16.
The Jets are a league worst 32nd against the TE, so there is a chance Hooper steps up. The involvement of both David Njoku and Harrison Bryant in the offense concern me and I am sitting Hooper as a result. While you are sitting Hooper, sit the rest of your Cleveland Browns as well.
Jets – Simply put sit them all. I don’t want any part of the Jets this week. I have been high on Jamison Crowder all season and I have him at WR49. He is as close to a start as I have here.
New York Giants @ Baltimore Ravens
Giants- Starting QB plays into this one sort of I guess. I like the offense slightly more with Daniel Jones under center versus Colt McCoy. Emphasize on the word slightly. Let’s start with both QB’s regardless of who it is they are a sit, with confidence here.
The RB’s don’t really wow me. Wayne Gallman massively disappointed a week ago and he is my RB25 this week, so you can start him, and Alfred Morris is a sit he is my RB70. Dion Lewis isn’t worth rostering so hopefully you don’t have plans to start him.
At WR, Sterling Shepard is my favorite at WR48, followed by Darius Slayton at WR55, and Golden Tate at WR74. Flex Shepard if you must. Evan Engram has been my fantasy kryptonite this season. I cant figure the man out. If I start him he disappoints like last week, and when I sit him he plays well. He is my TE12 this week and that says more about the TE position than it does my love for Engram. Sit all the remainder Giants if I missed one here.
Ravens- Lamar is a no brainer in Week 16. He is my QB4, and J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are starts as well. Dobbins at RB13 and Edwards more a flex play at RB39. Both should see enough work to pay off and both have TD upside. The WR position is a little murky for the Ravens. As much as I love Lamar here, I am starting him for his legs not his arm. Hollywood Brown would be my top WR to start this week, and I don’t love it. He is my WR33 this week. Sit Willie Snead, Miles Boykin, Devin Duvernay and Dez Bryant.
Mark Andrews is a must start TE. He hasn’t been great in recent weeks, but this is the TE position we are talking about. Andrews is TE8 since Week 10 and that includes two missed games in weeks 12 & 13. Andrews is my TE4 on the week, and a slam dunk against the Giants.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Houston -9.0 Over/Under 46.0
Bengals- I am starting Giovani Bernard here solely based on the matchup. Only the Detroit Lions are worse against opposing RB’s than the Houston Texans. Tyler Boyd if he clears the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins are both WR4 option this week, and that is that for the Bengals.
Texans – Deshawn Watson, David Johnson and that’s really it for me. Watson is my QB5, and DJ is my RB10. I don’t love any of the WRs, but Brandin Cooks is a WR2 this week, Keke Coutee a WR3, and Chad Hansen is my WR49. Sit the TE’s, Jordan Akins is my TE24 and Darren Fells is TE43.
Chicago Bears @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Bears -7.5 Over/Under 56
Bears- Since head Coach Matt Nagy gave up play calling duties and handed them to Bill Lazard the Bears offense has looked much better. Mitchell Trubisky has as well. Trubisky is a top-12 QB for me in Week 16, the matchup against the Jags makes him worthy of a start in your fantast championship. The Jags are second worst against the QB position this season. They are allowing 23.2 points per game.
At RB David Montgomery has been on fire recently and has likely carried you to your final if you have him on your roster. Not sure you noticed but Monty is RB6 on the season and that has been driven by his week 12-15 results. Monty is the top scoring back since week 12 averaging 26.53 PPR points a game. He is smash must start this week against a defense allowing 29 points a game to the position, 3rd worst in the league.
Where the Jags might be the best on defense is against the pass. They are 24th versus the WR and 21st against the TE. Clearly these rankings should not deter you from starting Allen Robinson. He is a must start WR and I have him at WR6 this week.
That is about it at WR for me, if you are desperate for a flex in a deeper league, Darnell Mooney is an option. He needs to score to be relevant. Anthony Miller sadly is off the fantasy radar.
At TE, Cole Kmet is becoming a thing for fantasy. The reason is he is getting snaps and running a lot of routes. If you are in a TE premium league he’s an option this week, and again in deeper leagues with multiple flexes he is as option at well. I have him at TE15 projected for just under 9 PPR points. If he finished as at top-12 option this week I would not be surprised at all.
Jaguars- With the injury to James Robinson last week, my desire to start anyone from Jacksonville took a massive hit. I assume Gardner Minshew is starting again, but he is of no relevance, he is my 28th ranked QB in Week 16. At RB with Robinson likely out its Devine Ozigbo, and he’s a no go. I currently have him at RB60 and he will move up to the 40’s if and when Robinson is declared out.
The WRs don’t do much for me here either. If there is one to start its DJ Chark. To be completely transparent I do not like Chark at all, not just this week but in general. With that said he is my WR39, that is flex worthy if you need him. Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault, and Chris Conley are off the fantasy radar here.
The Bears oddly enough are vulnerable to the TE this season. They have allowed the second most points per game to the position this season 16.1. With that said I have little to no interest in Tyler Eifert and even less in James O’Shaughnessy.
Atlanta Falcons @ Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs -10 Over/Under 53.5
Falcons- Matt Ryan has been two different QBs this season, the one with Julio Jones and the one without. Julio has appeared in 9 games in 2020. In those 9 games Matt Ryan has averaged 19.72 points per game. In the 5 games without Julio, Ryan’s average drops to 14.67 a game.
Ryan last week but up 27.84 points without Julio, without that gem his average would be 11.38 a game. I don’t expect Julio to play against the Chiefs and therefore Ryan is a sit. He is my QB18, so still a viable dart throw in super-flex.
The Falcons RB group is a mess, I want nothing to do with any of them. Apparently Ito Smith is the lead back now, gross! Smith is my RB37 and that feels way to high. Gurley is RB55, and Brain Hill in the 70’s. Punt that entire backfield this week.
I am as big a Calvin Ridley guy as you will find. I wrote about a breakout season article in February, had a bold prediction that he would be a top-12 WR this season and score more points than Julio in the process. Well here we are entering Week 16 and Ridley is WR6 in 13 games. He is a must start option this week. I have him at WR4. Russell Gage is a WR3 this week coming in at WR36, and that is as far as I go at WR for Atlanta this week.
That brings me to Hayden Hurst. I have a bet with RotoHeat team member Jacob Wallace. Be sure to check out JayWall’s great work on our site by the way. The bet is simple, JayWall thinks Hurst is a top-10 TE this year, I say he isn’t. Entering Week 16 he is at TE15. Hurst scored last week and posted 12.10 fantasy points in PPR scoring. His first double digit performance since Week 9. He is a sit again this week coming in as my TE20.
Chiefs- We can make this one pretty quick. Start Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Now aren’t you glad you tuned in for that cutting edge analysis? Mahomes is my QB1, Hill my WR2, and Kelce my TE2.
When CEH went down with his hip/leg injury it made Le’Veon Bell fantasy relevant again. Bell is my RB22 this week. Bell isn’t a must start but I would be comfortable stating him in a game the Chiefs should win easily. It is possible that the Chiefs close this one out with Darrel Williams as I cant imagine the Chiefs want to risk losing Bell. Regardless I’m starting Le’Veon and sitting all other Chiefs backs
In addition to Tyreek Hill at WR, Sammy Watkins (WR57), Mecole Hardman (W71), and Demarcus Robinson (WR88) are not options I suggest sitting this week.
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Colts -1.5 Over/Under 45.5
Colts- I was really high on Philip Rivers entering the season and by high I mean I had him around QB18. I jumped off his bandwagon mid season and damn if he hasn’t pulled me back up on board. Since Week 10 Rivers has averaged 18.59 points a game and is the QB11. I don’t recommend stating him other than in super-flex. Rivers in my QB21 this week. I am pleased though that my preseason ranking wasn’t that far off, he is the QB19 season to date.
Jonathan Taylor is a must start RB for me this week, and Nyheim Hines is viable as well. I have Taylor at 15 and Hines at 26 versus the Steelers who all of a sudden can’t stop the run. The duo continue to split work and I would have to think that the Colts will want to keep this on the ground as much as possible. Jordan Wilkins however is not an option for me, I have him at RB72, this backfield is a two headed monster now.
When Rivers goes to the air, its likely to TY Hilton (WR26), Michela Pittman Jr. (WR50) and to a lesser extent Zach Pascal (WR75). Start Hilton, flex Pittman if required and sit Pascal. Starting Pascal here is chasing points from Week 15 that I don’t see you catching.
The TEs are all on my bench regardless of who they are. Trey Burton is my highest ranked at 31, followed by Jack Doyle at 32 and Mo Alie-Cox is at 40. Going out on a limb here but if you need one of these guys this week I am guessing your not in your league final.
Steelers- Man what a mess the Steelers have become in a very short period of time. They entered Week 13 as the lone undefeated team in the league at 11-0.
They have since lost to Washington, Buffalo, and Cincinnati, and have looked terrible in the process. There is really no way you can trust Ben Roethlisberger this week. I have him at QB20 and even in a super-flex league I would look elsewhere if you have a viable option. My guess is the Big Ben fantasy manager missed their shot at going to the finals last week.
It doesn’t get any easier at the RB position this week. Two weeks ago James Conner ran for 18 yards on 10 carries. Those 1.80 points Conner scored in Week 14 are the only points he has scored since Week 11. I have Conner at RB35, and I hate it. If you are desperate he’s a flex play I suppose. Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland Jr. are nothing to get excited about either.
I have Snell at RB42, and McFarland at RB84. If possible sit all your Steelers RBs. Indy is the 14th best in the league versus the run, and the Steelers are broken.
At WR I still really like Diontae Johnson. He is my WR18 this week, start him. Juju Smith-Schuster is a tough call for me this week, I have him ranked at 28 this week. He is a start but not a comfy one. If you need a WR3 he is viable. Chase Claypool needs to score or you are going to be disappointed. I think there is a good chance he does, so I ranked him at 33. He is flex for you to choose from.
Nothing at TE excites me. Eric Ebron left early with a back injury against Cincinnati and I am guessing he doesn’t play against Indy this week. I have him at 15 but he likely goes down when I adjust my rankings later this week. There is zero chance anyone should consider Vance McDonald this week.
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Chargers -3.0 Over/Under 48.5
Broncos- There isn’t a whole lot to be interested in regards to the Broncos this week. Drew Lock is a mess. In 11 games this season he is averaging 14.18 points a game. He sandwiched in a 25.60 point game between a 12.94 and a 10.98 the past three weeks. The Chargers are not a bad matchup, they are 8th worst against the QB this season (20.8 points/game) but Lock who I have at 25 should only be considered by the desperate super-flex manager.
Melvin Gordon is my RB15 this week. I would be comfortable starting him, his nose for the endzone is what I like here. LA is middle of that back versus the run, and I dig the revenge angle here as well. I have Phillip Lindsay at 37 so in a pinch he is flex worthy.
The Wide Receivers don’t do much for me. LA allows 32.5 points to the position which is 5th best through 15 weeks. I have Tim Patrick the highest at 41, followed by Jeudy at 49, and Hamler at 61. Even though I have them ranked that way I think I like Hamler the best. I have nothing to offer to justify that take, just a gut feel. I would prefer to sit all my Broncos WRs this week.
Noah Fant on the other hand is in must start territory. I have him at TE6, and I am starting him everywhere I have him this week. I faded him last week and he popped off for 20.80 PPR points. Hopefully Fant managers survived his zero point Week 14.
Chargers- Justin Herbert my QB8, Austin Ekeler my RB4, Keenan Allen my WR7, and Hunter Henry my TE8, are all must starts. Keep you eye on Keenan Allen’s practice reports this week. He was clearly limited last week with his hamstring injury and if he’s not 100% you my need to try and find a plug an play replacement.
The rest of the Chargers are on my bench. If Allen sits I will consider Tyron Johnson who is currently at WR71. Mike Williams who is at WR57 is pure desperation in my opinion, dealing with a back injury. I’ll likely lower him when I update my rankings.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Bills -7 Over Under 45.5
Bills- Josh Allen is a must start I have him at QB7. He is doing everything well and is in the league MVP conversation. Stefon Diggs if he plays is also a must start. Diggs is currently my WR5. Other Bills to consider. RBs Devin Singletary and Zach Moss are both in play. Singletary at RB28, and Moss at RB33. The one thing you can do against New England is run the football.
Gabriel Davis is interesting especially if Diggs sits. He is at WR53, and start Cole Beasley he is my 24th ranked WR this week.
Dawson Knox is a sit. Knox is my TE25 this week. If he scores he’s viable if he doesn’t he isn’t. He has three touchdowns this season and I am betting he doesn’t score in Week 16 against the Patriots who defend the TE extremely well.
Patriots- Honestly I would prefer to sit all Pats this Week. I have Cam at QB24. I have no clue how to rank Damien Harris, James White, or Sony Michel. In the end I have them at RB95, RB35, and RB32 respectfully. I don’t expect Harris to be active so Sony and White become flex options if he sits. If he plays I want to avoid them all.
The isn’t a TE option on the Patriots to consider. There hasn’t been since Rob Gronkowski retired. Dalton Keene is my TE53 and Devin Asiasi is TE58.
That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for reading Fantasy Football Week 16 Start and Sit AFC
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I will be back tomorrow with my Week 16 Start and Sits NFC. Good luck in week 16, go get the W, and win you fantasy final! Stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers, take care.