Fantasy Football Week 15 Start and Sit
Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 117 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts.
If you are reading this, chances are you are alive and kicking and preparing for Week 15, the Fantasy Semi-Finals. Congratulations. In a season full of injury and uncertainty due to the corona virus, you’ve made it, be proud of yourself. You have two more mountains to climb in order to win your league championship.
Just a reminder that as the fantasy season wears down, we here at RotoHeat are just warming up. This podcast will remain and take on a more dynasty focus in the coming weeks. In addition we have the RotoHeat YouTube Channel that will continue with our livestreams and soon start rolling our our 2021 Rookie Profile videos. The team is hard at work crunching film and getting rookiedraftguide.com ready for you all. This team led by Rick Butts and Brad Menendez is putting together a rookie draft guide unlike anything seen before.
Now with that said, here are my Fantasy Football Week 14 Start and Sit recommendations, do with them what you will.
Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans
Sully’s Rank QB7
Ryan Tannehill put up two touchdowns in a win over the Jaguars last week, he finished as the QB19 with 16.48 points. I get that isn’t a mind-numbing number. He is now QB7 on the season and his QB19 finish last week was 2 points from being a top 12 QB. Tannehill has now produced multiple scores in three of his last four games, and he gets to face a Lions defense that’s allowed 29 total touchdowns and the seventh-most points to opposing quarterbacks. Mitchell Trubisky, P.J. Walker, and Alex Smith are the only QBs not to produce 20-plus points against them since Week 8.
Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sully’s Rank QB8
I had Brady in this spot last week and he disappointed. I have Brady as my QB in a lot of leagues and I get that if you are still alive in your league it is despite Brady not because of him. Keep him in as your QB this week when he faces the Falcons. No defense in the league has given up more fantasy points to quarterbacks, and the position has produced 18-plus points nine times. The over/under is 51.5, so expect a shootout.
Other Starts to Consider
Taysom Hill – New Orleans Saints QB11
The Saints quarterback will be an attractive option against the Chiefs. Their defense has been brutal in recent weeks, allowing 21-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks in four of their last five games. Kansas City has also allowed multiple touchdown passes in five straight games.
Jared Goff – Los Angeles Chargers QB15
Goff has struggled in recent weeks failing to score more than 17 points in six of his last eight games. This week he gets the Jets who have allowed 28 touchdown passes and the second-most points to quarterbacks this season. Eight QBs have scored 19-plus fantasy points against them.
Phillip Rivers – Indianapolis Colts QB16
He’s on the streaming radar this week, as the Colts face a Texans defense that’s looked bad in recent weeks. Including Mitchell Trubisky’s 24.9-point outburst last week, Houston has allowed 19-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks nine times, including Rivers himself back in Week 13.
Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons
Sully’s Rank QB20
Ryan’s numbers have been awful in recent weeks, as he’s failed to score more than 14 fantasy points since Week 9. He’s also had more interceptions (6) than touchdown passes (4) in his last four games. This week’s matchup versus the Bucs could turn into a shootout, regardless I can’t trust Ryan without Julio Jones in a 1QB format. He remains a low level starter in Super-Flex and 2QB leagues.
Cam Newton – New England Patriots
Sully’s Rank QB23
Cam Newton is how do I say this, terrible. I had him as a sit last week and he’s here again this week. If you have been starting Cam Newton you likely are not in your league semi-final so perhaps this is a moot point. Newton has struggled lately, scoring fewer than five fantasy points in two of his last three games. In Week 15 vs Miami you want no part of him. Their defense has allowed an average of just 10.6 fantasy points since Week 11. Last week they kept Patrick Mahomes, in check, imagine what they are going to do to Newton.
Other Sits to Consider
Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings QB19
Cousins has been pretty startable in recent weeks, since week 6 he’s the QB10, and enters this week as QB12. This week the Vikings face the Bears. Chicago has allowed an average of just 17 points per game to quarterbacks this year.
Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins QB21
I had Tua here last week and he went off to the tune of 28 fantasy points. I’d beware of this week’s matchup against the Patriots. Their defense eats rookie QBs for breakfast. In addition they have held the trio of Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, and Jared Goff to an average 8.9 fantasy points since Week 12.
Baker Mayfield – Cleveland Browns QB22
Mayfield has been on fire in recent weeks, scoring a combined 59.5 fantasy points in his last two games. That said I’m sitting him in 1QB leagues this week. Baker faces the Giants their defense has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the QB, and only two have scored 20-plus points against them. That list includes Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, and Kyler Murray.
2. Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts
Sully’s Rank RB6
Jonathan Taylor has taken claim to the top spot in the Colts backfield, he’s led the team in both snaps and touches in each of his last three games. Last week, Taylor had a 44 percent touch share in Las Vegas. He’ll be on the mid RB1 radar this weekend as the Colts face the Texans. Their defense has allowed 17 touchdowns and the second-most fantasy points to opposing runners.
Cam Akers – Los Angeles Rams
Sully’s Rank RB10
Cam Akers was used in a featured role last week, as he totaled 50 snaps, a 60 percent touch share, and 21.4 fantasy points in a win over the Patriots. He gets an even better matchup this week, as the winless Jets visit. Their defense has been rather accommodating to the RB position, allowing an average of more than 24 fantasy points per game. As long as Akers continues to see a big workload, he will deliver a top-12 result this weekend.
Other Starts to Consider
David Montgomery – Chicago Bears RB11
Montgomery has had three big games in a row, scoring four touchdowns and a combined 76.9 fantasy points. He’ll make it four straight this weekend as the Bears go up against the Vikings. Their defense has allowed 15-plus fantasy points to running backs eight times this season.
Raheem Mostert / Jeff Wilson – San Francisco 49ers RB14/RB30
Mostert played 40 snaps with a team-high 31 percent touch share last week, and this week’s matchup in Dallas puts him on the RB2 radar. The Cowboys have given up the second-most rushing yards to running backs, and the position has averaged nearly 25 fantasy points per game against them in 2020. Mostert is dealing with a bum ankle, so if he’s unable to go then, this recommendation will pivot to Jeffery Wilson Jr.
JK Dobbins – Baltimore Ravens RB28
J.K. Dobbins rushed 13 times for 53 yards and one touchdown in the Ravens’ Week 14 win over the Browns. Dobbins has double-digit carries in five of the last six games and has a rushing score in three straight. He’ll be an upside RB2 for Week 15 against the Jaguars.
Todd Gurley – Atlanta Falcons
Sully’s Rank RB36
Gurley had a decent run earlier this season, but he’s simply not 100 percent at this point. That’s been evident in his usage, as Gurley has averaged just 20.5 snaps and 8.5 touches over his last two games. Ito Smith has scored more points than Gurley the past two weeks. Gurley also had a bad matchup, as Tampa Bay has allowed the fewest rushing yards (59 YPG) to backs this year. Easy sit call here.
Giovani Bernard – Cincinnati Bengals
Sully’s Rank RB41
Bernard’s time as a useful fantasy option is over. Last week, despite a plus matchup against the Cowboys, he scored just 3.3 fantasy points while finishing behind both Samaje Perine and Trayveon Williams in snaps and touch share. Fumbling the first snap of the game will do that to a guy. The Steelers have the best defense in the league against running backs, as the position has scored just eight touchdowns and averaged the fewest fantasy points.
Other Sits to Consider
Latavius Murray – New Orleans Saints RB39
Murray appeared to be stepping up at the right time for his fantasy managers. After Drew Brees went down, Alvin Kamara struggled and Murray produced. Kamara seems to be over his foot aliment and in the last two Murray has averaged 2.7 PPR points a game.
James White – New England Patriots RB38
The fact that he split touches with Damien Harris and Sony Michel certainly doesn’t’ help White. When Rex Burkhead went down for the season I had high hopes for James White. Reality is in the three games without Rex, White has a total of 20.60 PPR points.
Duke Johnson – Houston Texans RB43
Whether it’s David or Duke, you’ll want to avoid the Johnsons in fantasy leagues. Last week, Duke played 30 snaps in David’s absence, but he was second in touch percentage behind Buddy Howell. This week’s matchup is a brutal one, as the Colts have been tough against running backs with DL DeForest Buckner and LB Darius Leonard in the middle of their defense.
3. Wide Receiver
Brandon Aiyuk – San Francisco 49ers
Sully’s Rank WR14
Aiyuk is quietly on fire ladies and gentlemen, ranking fifth in points among WRs since Week 13. He also leads the position in targets. This week’s game in Dallas is a favorable one, their defense has allowed 16 touchdowns and the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers lined out wide this season. Aiyuk stays hot this week and carries you to the fantasy finals
Diontae Johnson – Pittsburgh Steelers
Sully’s Rank WR23
Typically I prefer to start WRs that can catch. Johnson has had a rough few weeks recently. IN the end talent prevails, and I am happily starting him against the Cincinnati Bengals. Their defense has allowed 13 scores to receivers lined out wide, and Johnson beat them for nearly 24 fantasy points in Week 10. I love a motivated Johnson, in a game the Steelers need bad to get their mojo back.
Other Starts to Consider
TY Hilton – Indianapolis Colts WR18
Since Week 12, he’s third in points among wideouts (22.9 PPG) while averaging over 16 yards per catch. He’s also dominated this week’s opponent, the Texans, scoring 15-plus fantasy points in four of his last five games against them. Houston has also allowed 18 scores and the ninth-most points to wideouts, so keep starting Hilton this week.
Terry McLaurin – Washington Football Team WR25
Terry McLaurin’s 7.8 combined points over the last two weeks has some managers concerned. Stick with him this week Heat Seekers. He has a get-right game this week, as the Seahawks have allowed the most fantasy points to receivers overall. The WFT should get Alex Smith (leg) back under center, so stick with McLaurin despite his recent failures. If Smith is out abandon ship.
Corey Davis – Tennessee Titans
Davis let his fantasy managers down last week in a prime match-up. He gets a great do over this week against the Lions. Their defense has struggled against receivers, allowing 12 touchdowns and the fourth-most fantasy points. With injuries in the defensive backfield and a unit allowing nearly 30 points per game, Detroit should be generous to Davis, A.J. Brown, and the Titans receivers.
Tyler Boyd – Cincinnati Bengals
Sully’s Rank WR45
It’s no surprise that Boyd’s totals have taken a nosedive since the Bengals lost Joe Burrow, as he’s been held to single digits in two of his last three games. He’ll remain a risk-reward flex option at best, as the Bengals host the Steelers this week. Pittsburgh hasn’t been great against slot receivers, but their defense did hold Boyd to 41 yards in Week 10 (with Burrow under center). His shrinking ceiling makes Boyd one to avoid.
D.J. Chark – Jacksonville Jaguars
Sully’s Rank WR52
Chark has struggled in recent weeks, as his numbers have dropped in each of his last five games. He’s failed to put up more than 10 points in four straight contests and has averaged a 4.8 points since Week 10. The return of Gardner Minshew could be seen as a positive, Chark’s matchup in Baltimore certainly is not. Their defense has allowed just six touchdowns and 20.2 points per game to receivers out wide. Maybe just maybe people are starting to see the real DJ Chark like I have all along.
Other Sits to Consider
CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys WR39
Lamb is going to be a superstar in the NFL at some point in his career, but the loss of Dak Prescott has crushed his potential this season. He’s failed to score more than nine fantasy points in two of his last three games, and his two targets last week were a season-low. Next up is a date with the Niners, who have allowed just 4.5 catches per game to opposing slot receivers.
Jamison Crowder – New York Jets WR46
Crowder had a great matchup last week, but a nagging calf injury kept him from meeting his statistical expectations. This week he takes his nagging calf injury into a brutal matchup against the Rams. Hard pass here
Jakobi Meyers – New England Patriots WR55
I am a rather large Jakobi Meyers fan. That said he can not be trusted this week against the Dolphins. A WR that doesn’t score, who lacks targets, and faces a tough pass defense is an easy sit.
4. Tight End
Robert Tonyan – Green Bay Packers
Sully’s Rank TE6
This one is fairly straight forward, as Tonyan has scored a touchdown and 13-plus fantasy points in each of these last four games. That streak should continue this weekend, as Tonyan faces a Carolina team that’s been generous to tight ends. Their defense has allowed six scores and an average of nearly 15 points per game to the position. Tonyan is a solid fantasy option this weekend.
Eric Ebron – Pittsburgh Steelers
Sully’s Rank TE8
Ebron sucked last week with just 30 yards on two catches. He had seen 29 combined targets in his previous three games, and the Steelers have thrown the ball 73.6 percent of the time in that span. The Bengals have allowed 10 or more fantasy points to tight ends eight different times this season, and just three other teams have allowed more points to the position overall, so I’d stick with Ebron.
Other Starts to Consider
Evan Engram – New York Giants TE10
My infatuation with Evan Engram continues. He was trash last week, catching two of four targets for 18 yards in a loss to the Cardinals. I’m sticking with him this week regardless. Simply put he has a great matchup next on the slate against the Browns. Their defense has struggled against tight ends, as the position has scored nine times and averaged more than 16 points a game. Look for Engram to rebound here.
Rob Gronkowski – Tampa Bay Buccanners TE11
Gronkowski scored a touchdown last week, but he was targeted just twice and still scored a modest 7.2 points. I do like him this week though, as he has a great matchup against the Falcons. Their defense has allowed nine touchdown catches to tight ends, not to mention the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. So while Gronkowski doesn’t see many targets, the matchup makes him a start this week.
Dalton Schultz – Dallas Cowboys
Sully’s Rank TE18
Schultz has continued to see a good number of targets in the Dallas pass attack, but it hasn’t resulted in huge totals. In fact, he’s failed to produce more than 8.4 fantasy points in each of his last three games. That trend is likely to continue against the 49ers, who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. What’s more, just two tight ends have scored more than 10.3 fantasy points against San Francisco this year.
Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles
Sully’s Rank TE28
Ertz saw a mere three targets last week, and his four catches over the last two games aren’t anything to write home about. And while the addition of Jalen Hurts resulted in a win for the Eagles, it meant little to help Ertz’s fading fantasy appeal. He should remain on the sidelines this week too, as the Eagles face a Cardinals defense that’s surrendered just three touchdowns and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
Other Sits to Consider
Hayden Hurst – Atlanta Falcons TE20
Hayden Hurst has fallen off the face of the fantasy earth recently. In Weeks 1-9 Hurst was TE5 averaging 10.68 PPR points a game. Atlanta went on bye in Week 10, and since then Hurst is averaging 3.1 points a game and has been TE44. The fact he is TE15 on the season tells us all we need to know about this position.
Jordan Reed – San Francisco 49ers TE25
I had hopes of fnatasy relevance for Jordan Reed once George Kittle was injured, provided Reed himself could stay healthy. Reed has been TE19 since Kittle has gone down, splits snaps and targets with Ross Dwelley and simply cannot be trusted in a week of such importance.
That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for reading Fantasy Football Week 15 Start and Sit.
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I will be back next week with my Week 16 Start and Sits next week. Good luck in week 15, go get the W, and make your fantasy finals! Stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers, take care.