Fantasy Football Week 14 Start and Sit
Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 116 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast. I am your host Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat family of podcasts.
Welcome to Week 14, the start of the fantasy playoffs in the majority of leagues. For the majority of the season I have let you all know that this week is just one week, there is no need to overreact, there is no need to panic. Well in Week 14, there in no tomorrow you win or you go home its a simple as that.
Similar to a week ago, if you are the favorite this week the floor takes on more importance and if you are the underdog the ceiling is extremely relevant. If you are the under-dog you have to take your shot this week.
Keep a close eye on the injury report this week. As of now Christian McCaffrey seems to be trending in the wrong direction, and if you were banking on getting Joe Mixon back, you need to make alternate plans.
You may be forced to react more than you usually would to the Thursday night game this week. If you come out of Thursday up big, play it a little safer and limit your risk on the weekend. If you come out of Thursday down big, its time to shoot for teh stars.
A reminder for all of you that will be playing in your league’s fantasy semi-final in week 15 that, Brad Menendez and I bring you a weekly Waiver Wire video each Sunday night over on our YouTube channel. We record the video at 9:30 EST and it posts to YouTube shortly there after. Subscribing to our channel and clicking the notification bell is the best way to ensure you don’t miss it. We also have two live streams The Heat Seekers on Tuesday night and the Fantasy Inferno on Wednesday Nights. Both streams go live at 9:30 EST and are a great place to bring your start sit questions, we answer them all!
Last week I expanded on my usual two starts and sits at each position, I will continue this week, its the most important week of the fantasy season. I will give the the usual two to start and sit at each position, but I will also add addition guys I would start and sit as well. So without further ado lets get into my Fantasy Football Week 14 Start and Sit recommendations, starting with the Quarterbacks.
Justin Herbert – Los Angles Chargers
Sully’s Rank QB5
Justin Herbert has developed into a weekly must-start Quarterback. Do not be scared off by his last two weeks. In those two weeks, he’s been the QB31 averaging 10.4 fantasy points per game. The best medicine for a struggling QB is a good match-up, and that is exactly what awaits him in Week 14. Herbert and the Chargers are facing Atlanta. The Falcons defense has allowed 20-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks eight times, and no team has given up more points to the position overall. Start Justin Herbert with confidence.
Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sully’s Rank QB10
Tom Brady has been a fantasy roller-coaster this season. When he is good, he has been very good, and when he is bad, he has been quite bad. On the season he sits as QB8 averaging 20.81 points a game. He has 3 games over 30 points this season, two under 10, and another 3 under 20.
Brady is set up for a big Week 14, facing the Minnesota Vikings. Their defense has allowed 19-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks in five of their last seven games . The game is listed with an over/under total of 52.5, so it’ll has all the makings of a shootout. I like damn near everyone on the Bucs this week.
Other Starts to Consider
Taysom Hill – New Orleans Saints QB9
Averaging 23.52 points as a starter in three weeks and is QB6. The Eagles will have no answer for Hill this week.
Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans QB12
QB7 on the year facing a Jags defense that is in the bottom 4 in points allowed to the QB.
Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons QB13
Ryan has struggled in recent weeks but the Chargers are no longer the pass defense they once were. A healthy Julio Jones makes all the difference for Ryan and this Falcons offense.
Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings QB14
The Bucs are hard to run on, expect a lot of Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook in the screen game. Cousins who since week 9 is QB5 will benefit.
Cam Newton – New England Patriots
Sully’s Rank QB19
Cam Newton is coming off a nice, 23.6-point fantasy day in a win over the Los Angeles Chargers, last week. This week however, he won’t find nearly that much success against the other Los Angeles squad. The Rams have been tough on quarterbacks, allowing just one to score more than 17 fantasy points since Week 4.
That includes last week’s game against Arizona, where Kyler Murray was held to a very mediocre 16.4 fantasy points. Cam has to get it done with his legs as his passing numbers have been atrocious of late. In the last two weeks combined Cam is 21/37/153 with 1 TD. Sunday should not be pretty for Cam and this Patriots offense.
Baker Mayfield – Cleveland Browns
Sully’s Rank QB26
Baker Mayfield is coming off the game of his life last week, throwing four touchdown passes and scoring nearly 30 fantasy points. Regardless he’s a tough sell this week when Baltimore comes to Cleveland. Heading into Week 13, the Ravens defense has allowed an average of fewer than 18 fantasy points a game to quarterbacks.
Mayfield has failed to score more than 18 fantasy points in all but one of his five career games against the Ravens. I would expect Kevin Stefanski to lean heavily on the run this week. The longer the Browns have the football, the less Lamar Jackson does. I’m good with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt this week and that’s it for the Browns.
Other Sits to Consider
Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins QB23
Tua has struggled during his time as a starting QB in the NFL. In terms of fantasy he is averaging 9.37 points a game in parts of 5 games as a starter. The Chiefs will not make it easy on the rookie.
Teddy Bridgewater – Carolina Panthers QB24
Its possible that Teddy is without both DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel this week. You can do better than Bridgewater in the fantasy playoffs.
Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles QB27
New Eagles starting QB, that is exciting. Reality is its the same offense. Add to that a date with the New Orleans Saints. Very odd choice to throw the kid to the wolves this week. Hopefully this doesn’t ruin him.
Nick Mullens – San Francisco 49ers QB28
Against the Washington Football Team’s front 7, he is an easy sit this week.
2. Running Backs
David Montgomery – Chicago Bears
Sully’s Rank RB7
I am going back to the David Montgomery well yet again in Week 14. Montgomery has had two huge games in a row, scoring a combined 52.4 fantasy points against the Packers and Lions. He’s in line to make it three straight solid performances as the Bears face a vulnerable Houston run defense in Week 14.
The Texans have surrendered 16 total touchdowns and an average of 31.1 points a game to the running back this season. Eight different backs have scored at least 17 points against them in 2020, in Week 14 Monty will make it nine!
Wayne Gallman – New York Giants
Sully’s Rank RB17
Hey if it works, it works. For the third straight week I am starting Wayne Gallman. Gallman has become a valuable asset for fantasy fans over the last month-plus. He’s either rushed for 100-plus yards or scored a touchdown in each of his last six games. He’s sixth in points among running backs since Week 7.
This week he faces a Cardinals defense that just surrendered 35.5 fantasy points to Cam Akers and the collective Rams backfield one week ago. Gallman has the potential as a waiver wire flier to propel your squad into the semi-finals. Keep him in your lineups!
Other Starts to Consider
Myles Gaskin – Miami Dolphins RB13
Retuned to his feature role in the Dolphins offense a week ago, and should see the volume required to get him into the top 20 this week.
Kenyan Drake – Arizona Cardinals RB14
Drake is starting to look like the back that I expected in 2020. Drake has been in double digits the past 3 weeks, averaging 18 points a game, good for RB6.
Johnathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts RB15
He’s led the team in both snaps and touches in each of his last two games. He gets the Raiders in Week 14, and their defense has allowed 16 touchdowns and the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs.
Melvin Gordan – Denver Broncos RB25
He has scored 13 or fewer fantasy points in five of his last seven games. He’s in the RB2 mix when the Broncos travel to Carolina to face the Panthers. Their defense has struggled against backs, allowing 12 touchdowns and the sixth-most points.
David Johnson – Houston Texans
Sully’s Rank RB26
DJ returned to action last week and scored a TD. Good thing for his fantasy managers that he did. Despite that TD he still scored just 10.4 fantasy points. He only targeted just once in the passing game, as Duke Johnson played a bigger role as a receiver.
This is not good for D.J., who in addition has a tough matchup against the Bears in Week 14. Their defense has allowed just three touchdowns to backs in Chicago this season. Johnson is a flex at best this weekend, and I would prefer not to to start him at all.
Damien Harris – New England Patriots
Sully’s Rank RB34
Damien Harris continues to see the lion’s share of the carries in New England’s backfield, that is the good news. The bad news is Sony Michel saw 11 carries last week. Harris does nothing in the passing game, seeing just five targets all season. He’s a sit for me against the Rams, who have allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points to running backs. Harris and James White, and Sony Michel are all suited for your fantasy bench in Week 14.
Other Sits to Consider
Miles Sanders – Philadelphia Eagles RB21
Sanders is tough to bench, but he has failed to produce double-digit fantasy points in three straight contests. He’s seen a 30 percent touch share during that time but has still averaged just 6.1 points.
Todd Gurley – Atlanta Falcons RB29
The fact that he split touches with both Ito Smith and Brian Hill last week is problematic. It seems that he’s not 100 percent due to his nagging knee problems, I want nothing to do with Todd Gurley this week.
Darrell Henderson – Los Angeles Rams RB46
This backfield is becoming more and more clear with each passing week. It’s Cam Akers’ backfield. Henderson won’t see the volume to make him fnatasy relevant.
Le’Veon Bell – Kansas City Chiefs RB51
Bell was given a great opportunity to show he still has some juice left, last week. All he showed is that he is a much slower version of his former self and lacks burst. CEH will be back and Bell is irrelevant as a result.
3. Wide Receiver
Robby Anderson – Carolina Panthers
Sully’s Rank WR15
Anderson has been up and down in recent weeks, but he’ll be in a good spot to produce against the Broncos. Their defense has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to home receivers lined out wide, and it would be even worse had Tyreek Hill’s two touchdowns counted a week ago.
Anderson could also see a bigger target share if the Panthers are without D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel, who are on the COVID-19 list.
Corey Davis – Tennessee Titans
Sully’s Rank WR23
I had Corey Davis, listed as a start last week, and he produced (11-182-1) in a loss to the Browns. I’m not sure if he will hit those totals again, but he does have another great matchup in Jacksonville.
Receivers have put up 14 touchdown catches and averaged the sixth-most points against Jacksonville, including a score from Davis back in Week 2. I consider the veteran a solid flex starter in this AFC South tilt.
Other Starts to Consider
Amari Cooper – Dallas Cowboys WR24
It’s difficult to trust many of the top offensive weapons in Dallas, but Cooper has been reliable. He’s seen a 23 percent target share from Andy Dalton heading into Week 13, and volume is king.
Tyler Boyd – Cincinnati Bengals WR31
I get that its hard to trust anything in the Bengals offense, since we lost Joe Burrow for the season. That said I will roll with Boyd. He had a long score last week before getting tossed and faces Dallas defense that is far from tough on the slot WR.
Jamison Crowder – New York Jets WR37
Crowder finished with two touchdowns in a loss to the Raiders. Seattle’s defense has struggled to contain slot receivers, allowing a league-high averages of 7.6 catches and 93.8 yards per game. Sam Darnold loves to target the slot, so Crowder will be in the flex starter conversation once again.
TY Hilton – Indianapolis Colts WR44
He’s scored 43.1 points in his last two games, during which time his target share has risen to 20.8 percent. Hilton will remain in the flex conversation, as he faces a Raiders defense that’s allowed 14 touchdowns to wideouts.
Jacobi Myers – New England Patriots
Sully’s Rank WR46
Meyers has seen his totals tumble lately, as he’s failed to score more than 10.2 fantasy points in three straight games. That trend is likely to continue Thursday night, as he faces a difficult matchup against CB Jalen Ramsey and the Rams. Their defense has been tough on visiting wide receivers, allowing just 156.8 yards and no touchdown catches to the position at SoFi Stadium. Meyers (and most Patriots) are a hard fade.
Christian Kirk – Arizona Cardinals
Sully’s Rank WR54
Kirk had a three-week stretch earlier this season where he averaged 22.2 fantasy points. In the four games since that streak ended, he’s scored a combined 22.8 points. I’d keep him on the sidelines once again, as Kirk faces a Giants defense that’s playing at a high level. In fact, their defense has allowed just five touchdowns to receivers lined out wide this season. Kyler Murray is struggling as well, so Kirk is a tough sell for me.
Other Sits to Consider
Jarvis Landry – Cleveland Browns WR36
In Tennessee last week, Landry went over 20 fantasy points and was WR14. His nice game coincided with Baker Mayfield going off in the first half. As mentioned earlier I don’t love Baker this week, I expect a heavy run game and as a result I am sitting Landry here.
Jerry Jeudy – Denver Broncos WR47
Jeudy has failed to score more than seven fantasy points in a game since Week 10. This week’s matchup in Carolina isn’t all that favorable. Their defense has allowed just three touchdowns and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to visiting receivers.
Darius Slayton – New York Giants WR55
Slayton has been a ghost in the Giants offense recently. Since coming off teh bye in Week 13, Slayton has combined for 2.40 PPR points in tow weeks. Hard pass this week against the Cardinals.
Henry Ruggs – Las Vegas Raiders WR57
Facing a tough Indianapolis Colts defense, Ruggs wont get behind teh defenders as he did vs the Jets a week ago. If he doesn’t score a long one, he is useless, and in this one he won’t.
4. Tight End
Hunter Henry – Los Angeles Chargers
Sully’s Rank TE5
Henry and the rest of the Los Angeles offense were brutal week ago, but a home matchup against Atlanta should be good for what ails it. Their defense has allowed an average of 404 total yards per game on the road, and opposing tight ends have scored nine times and averaged nearly 16 fantasy points against them overall. In what could turn into a high-scoring affair, Henry should be seen as a top-10 tight end option.
Eric Ebron – Pittsburgh Steelers
Sully’s Rank TE6
Ebron has been peppered with targets in recent weeks, seeing a combined 29 over his last three games. That trend should continue against the Bills in what could be a shootout at Orchard Park. Buffalo has been generous to tight ends, allowing seven touchdowns and an average of nearly 16 fantasy points per game to the position. With Ben Roethlisberger throwing the football a ton, Ebron should be seen as a top-10 option this weekend.
Other Starts to Consider
Noah Fant – Denver Broncos TE11
Fant has finished with nine or more fantasy points in three of his last five games played with a true quarterback. A matchup against the Panthers makes him a potential top-10 play this week.
Dalton Schultz – Dallas Cowboys TE12
Schultz has been a target hog in the Cowboys offense lately. He’ll be a viable streamer for fantasy managers this week, as a date with the Bengals is a favorable one. Their defense has surrendered 10 or more fantasy points eight times this season.
Austin Hooper – Atlanta Falcons
Sully’s Rank TE17
Austin Hooper has failed to put up improved numbers since the Browns lost Odell Beckham Jr. to a knee injury. He’s averaged just 5.5 fantasy points in the last month and has seen just two targets in three of his last four games. Hooper also failed to produce in his first game of the year against the Ravens, scoring just 3.5 fantasy points. Unless you’re desperate, Hooper is an easy sit.
Zach Ertz – Philadelphia Eagles
Sully’s Rank TE21
Ertz returned to action for the Eagles last week, but he saw just four targets and was held to a 31 yards in a loss to the Packers. He was out-targeted and out-produced by Dallas Goedert, who is still the top option in the Eagles pass attack. Ertz also has a tough matchup against the Saints, who have allowed just one tight end to score more than 3.3 fantasy points since Week 5. While Goedert remains a start, I’d sit Ertz this weekend.
Other Sits to Consider
Jared Cook – New Orleans Saints TE28
Cook did find the end zone last week, but he produced only 28 yards and has put up zero yards twice in the last month. I’d continue to sit him in Week 14.
Trey Burton – Indianapolis Colts TE30
Burton has been tough to trust in recent weeks, scoring fewer than six fantasy points in three of his last five games. Las Vegas’ defense has had its share of issues, but it’s been tough on tight ends. The position has scored just one touchdown against the Raiders since Week 7.
That’s going to do it for today’s episode, thank you for reading Fantasy Football Week 14 Start and Sit.
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I will be back next week with my Week 15 Start and Sits next week. Good luck in week 14, go get the W, and make your fantasy semi-finals! Stay safe and stay healthy Heat Seekers, take care.